Indicator Heatmap
strong+healthyneutralstresssevere
Technical · 3
S&P 500 RSI
44.1
S&P 500 RSI
Value: 44.1
neutral · 24th percentile of its own history · 4.1 from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Nasdaq 100 RSI
35.2
Nasdaq 100 RSI
Value: 35.2
healthy · 6th percentile of its own history · 4.8 from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →VIX
20.0
VIX
Value: 20.0
healthy · 63rd percentile of its own history · 0.0 from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Macro Risk · 8
US Dollar Index
101.78
US Dollar Index
Value: 101.78
strong+ · 70th percentile of its own history · 1.22 from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Gold
$4,186.70
Gold
Value: $4,186.70
stress · 97th percentile of its own history · no band edge within range
Concerning reading
View full analysis →WTI Crude Oil
$99.04
WTI Crude Oil
Value: $99.04
stress · 91st percentile of its own history · 9.04 from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Broad Dollar Index
121.6
Broad Dollar Index
Value: 121.6
stress · 91st percentile of its own history · 3.4 from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →EM Financial Stress (OFR)
−0.52
EM Financial Stress (OFR)
Value: −0.52
healthy · 14th percentile of its own history · 0.23 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Financial Stress Index (OFR)
−2.19
Financial Stress Index (OFR)
Value: −2.19
healthy · 34th percentile of its own history · 1.81 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Credit Stress (OFR)
−0.97
Credit Stress (OFR)
Value: −0.97
healthy · 19th percentile of its own history · 0.53 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Copper Price
$14,474
Copper Price
Value: $14,474
strong+ · 100th percentile of its own history · 4474 from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Monetary & Liquidity · 3
Fed Balance Sheet
$6.76T
Fed Balance Sheet
Value: $6.76T
neutral · 79th percentile of its own history · 0.74T from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Money Market Assets
+5.5% YoY
Money Market Assets
Value: +5.5% YoY
neutral · 40th percentile of its own history · 0.0 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Real 5yr Yield (TIPS)
2.58%
Real 5yr Yield (TIPS)
Value: 2.58%
neutral · 99th percentile of its own history · 0.17 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Credit & Financial Conditions · 13
5yr Breakeven Inflation
2.37%
5yr Breakeven Inflation
Value: 2.37%
strong+ · 75th percentile of its own history · 0.13 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →10yr Breakeven Inflation
2.35%
10yr Breakeven Inflation
Value: 2.35%
strong+ · 71st percentile of its own history · 0.15 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →5y5y Forward Inflation
2.33%
5y5y Forward Inflation
Value: 2.33%
strong+ · 56th percentile of its own history · 0.17 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Chicago Fed Financial Conditions
−0.50
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions
Value: −0.50
healthy · 39th percentile of its own history · 0.00 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Bank Lending Standards
+0.0%
Bank Lending Standards
Value: +0.0%
neutral · 47th percentile of its own history · 5.0 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →TED Spread (SOFR)
−0.21%
TED Spread (SOFR)
Value: −0.21%
strong+ · 11th percentile of its own history · 0.21 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Baa–10yr Spread
1.44%
Baa–10yr Spread
Value: 1.44%
strong+ · 2nd percentile of its own history · 0.31 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →CP Rate (3-Month)
4.08%
CP Rate (3-Month)
Value: 4.08%
neutral · 70th percentile of its own history · 1.42 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →CP–Tbill Spread
−0.01%
CP–Tbill Spread
Value: −0.01%
strong+ · 1st percentile of its own history · 0.01 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →CP Financial–Nonfinancial Spread
−0.01%
CP Financial–Nonfinancial Spread
Value: −0.01%
healthy · 9th percentile of its own history · 0.04 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Business Loan Delinquencies
1.27%
Business Loan Delinquencies
Value: 1.27%
healthy · 29th percentile of its own history · 0.07 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Business Loan Charge-Offs
0.58%
Business Loan Charge-Offs
Value: 0.58%
healthy · 55th percentile of its own history · 0.02 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Excess Bond Premium
−0.39
Excess Bond Premium
Value: −0.39
healthy · 10th percentile of its own history · 0.11 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Fundamental · 10
S&P 500 P/E (TTM)
26.0
S&P 500 P/E (TTM)
Value: 26.0
stress · 93rd percentile of its own history · 1.0 from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Shiller CAPE Ratio
40.4
Shiller CAPE Ratio
Value: 40.4
severe · 99th percentile of its own history · 2.4 from the stress edge
Severe/critical reading
View full analysis →Buffett Indicator
233%
Buffett Indicator
Value: 233%
severe · 99th percentile of its own history · 83 pp from the stress edge
Severe/critical reading
View full analysis →CAPE: sigma vs trend
+1.6σ
CAPE: sigma vs trend
Value: +1.6σ
stress · 91st percentile of its own history · 0.4 from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Buffett indicator: sigma vs trend
+1.3σ
Buffett indicator: sigma vs trend
Value: +1.3σ
stress · 90th percentile of its own history · 0.3 from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Berkshire Cash Reserves
$365.5B
Berkshire Cash Reserves
Value: $365.5B
severe · 97th percentile of its own history · 65.5B from the stress edge
Severe/critical reading
View full analysis →Household Equity Allocation
48.2%
Household Equity Allocation
Value: 48.2%
stress · 100th percentile of its own history · 3.2 pp from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Household Net Worth
+7.2% QoQ
Household Net Worth
Value: +7.2% QoQ
strong+ · 99th percentile of its own history · 4.2 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →HY Credit Spreads
323 bps
HY Credit Spreads
Value: 323 bps
healthy · 65th percentile of its own history · 23 bps from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →IG Credit Spreads
84 bps
IG Credit Spreads
Value: 84 bps
healthy · 41st percentile of its own history · 9 bps from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Economic · 30
GDP (Annualized)
2.2%
GDP (Annualized)
Value: 2.2%
healthy · 34th percentile of its own history · 0.8 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →GDI (Annualized)
2.6%
GDI (Annualized)
Value: 2.6%
healthy · 41st percentile of its own history · 0.4 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →GDPNow Nowcast
3.6%
GDPNow Nowcast
Value: 3.6%
strong+ · 84th percentile of its own history · 0.6 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →OECD Leading Indicator (US)
+0.05% MoM
OECD Leading Indicator (US)
Value: +0.05% MoM
healthy · 60th percentile of its own history · 0.05 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →ISM Manufacturing PMI®
54.5
ISM Manufacturing PMI®
Value: 54.5
healthy · 0.5 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →ISM Services PMI®
54.9
CPI
3.72% YoY
CPI
Value: 3.72% YoY
stress · 67th percentile of its own history · 0.22 pp from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →PPI
12.8% YoY
PPI
Value: 12.8% YoY
severe · 90th percentile of its own history · 6.8 pp from the stress edge
Severe/critical reading
View full analysis →Core PCE Inflation
+3.0% YoY
Core PCE Inflation
Value: +3.0% YoY
stress · 58th percentile of its own history · 0.5 pp from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Median CPI
+2.6% YoY
Median CPI
Value: +2.6% YoY
neutral · 34th percentile of its own history · 0.9 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Trimmed Mean PCE
+2.2% YoY
Trimmed Mean PCE
Value: +2.2% YoY
neutral · 36th percentile of its own history · 0.6 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Sticky CPI
+2.8% YoY
Sticky CPI
Value: +2.8% YoY
neutral · 35th percentile of its own history · 1.0 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Core Capex Orders
+1.6%
Core Capex Orders
Value: +1.6%
strong+ · 68th percentile of its own history · 0.1 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Fed Funds Rate
3.75%
Fed Funds Rate
Value: 3.75%
neutral · 44th percentile of its own history · 0.25 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Yield Curve (10yr-2yr)
0.35%
Yield Curve (10yr-2yr)
Value: 0.35%
neutral · 32nd percentile of its own history · 0.15 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Cass Freight Index
+1.9% YoY
Cass Freight Index
Value: +1.9% YoY
healthy · 61st percentile of its own history · 1.9 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Heavy Truck Sales
396K
Heavy Truck Sales
Value: 396K
healthy · 65th percentile of its own history · 46K from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)
+0.7% MoM
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)
Value: +0.7% MoM
strong+ · 64th percentile of its own history · 0.2 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Real Retail Sales
+2.4% YoY
Real Retail Sales
Value: +2.4% YoY
neutral · 54th percentile of its own history · 0.6 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Industrial Production
+2.2% YoY
Industrial Production
Value: +2.2% YoY
healthy · 43rd percentile of its own history · 0.3 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Real Personal Income
+0.8% YoY
Real Personal Income
Value: +0.8% YoY
stress · 17th percentile of its own history · 0.2 pp from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Capacity Utilization
76.9%
Capacity Utilization
Value: 76.9%
neutral · 25th percentile of its own history · 1.1 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Manufacturing Weekly Hours
42.0 hrs
Manufacturing Weekly Hours
Value: 42.0 hrs
strong+ · 93rd percentile of its own history · 0.7 hrs from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Services Weekly Hours
+0.7% YoY
Services Weekly Hours
Value: +0.7% YoY
neutral · 20th percentile of its own history · 0.2 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Real PCE Services
+2.5% YoY
Real PCE Services
Value: +2.5% YoY
healthy · 33rd percentile of its own history · 0.5 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Smoothed Recession Probability
0.6%
Smoothed Recession Probability
Value: 0.6%
strong+ · 71st percentile of its own history · 9.4 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →M2 Money Supply
+5.7% YoY
M2 Money Supply
Value: +5.7% YoY
healthy · 36th percentile of its own history · 1.7 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Chicago Fed Activity Index
−0.04
Chicago Fed Activity Index
Value: −0.04
neutral · 41st percentile of its own history · 0.16 from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →G7 Leading Indicator (OECD)
100.9
G7 Leading Indicator (OECD)
Value: 100.9
healthy · 80th percentile of its own history · 0.1 from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Durable Goods Orders
−0.1%
Durable Goods Orders
Value: −0.1%
neutral · 44th percentile of its own history · 0.4 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Sentiment · 3
AAII Bull-Bear Spread
−2.9 pp
AAII Bull-Bear Spread
Value: −2.9 pp
neutral · 30th percentile of its own history · 7.1 pp from the healthy edge
Bulls: 38.7% · Bears: 41.6%
Within normal range
View full analysis →UMich Consumer Sentiment
51.7
UMich Consumer Sentiment
Value: 51.7
stress · 1st percentile of its own history · 1.7 from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Crypto Fear & Greed
55 - Greed
Crypto Fear & Greed
Value: 55 - Greed
stress · 65th percentile of its own history · 0 from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Employment · 18
Unemployment Rate
4.2%
Unemployment Rate
Value: 4.2%
healthy · 20th percentile of its own history · 0.3 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges
1.64M
JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges
Value: 1.64M
healthy · 12th percentile of its own history · 0.14M from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Nonfarm Payrolls
+29K
Nonfarm Payrolls
Value: +29K
stress · 26th percentile of its own history · 21K from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Private Payrolls
+46K
Private Payrolls
Value: +46K
stress · 29th percentile of its own history · 29K from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Services Payrolls
+28K
Services Payrolls
Value: +28K
stress · 24th percentile of its own history · 28K from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Goods Payrolls
+18K
Goods Payrolls
Value: +18K
neutral · 48th percentile of its own history · 7K from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →ADP Private Payrolls
+90K
ADP Private Payrolls
Value: +90K
neutral · 24th percentile of its own history · 15K from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Construction Employment
+1.3% YoY
Construction Employment
Value: +1.3% YoY
healthy · 36th percentile of its own history · 0.3 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Wage Growth
+3.0% YoY
Wage Growth
Value: +3.0% YoY
strong+ · 50th percentile of its own history · 0.5 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Job Openings (JOLTS)
7.1M
Job Openings (JOLTS)
Value: 7.1M
healthy · 75th percentile of its own history · 0.9M from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →JOLTS Quit Rate
1.9%
JOLTS Quit Rate
Value: 1.9%
neutral · 28th percentile of its own history · 0.1 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Jobless Claims (Initial)
199K
Jobless Claims (Initial)
Value: 199K
strong+ · 3rd percentile of its own history · 21K from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Jobless Claims (Continuing)
1710K
Jobless Claims (Continuing)
Value: 1710K
healthy · 11th percentile of its own history · 10K from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Sahm Rule Indicator
0.00
Sahm Rule Indicator
Value: 0.00
strong+ · 33rd percentile of its own history · 0.10 from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Jobs per Job Seeker
1.01 jobs/seeker
Jobs per Job Seeker
Value: 1.01 jobs/seeker
healthy · 75th percentile of its own history · 0.01 jobs from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →U-6 Unemployment Rate
7.6%
U-6 Unemployment Rate
Value: 7.6%
healthy · 19th percentile of its own history · 0.6 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Part-time for Economic Reasons
4.50M
Part-time for Economic Reasons
Value: 4.50M
neutral · 58th percentile of its own history · 0.50M from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Labor Force Participation
61.8%
Labor Force Participation
Value: 61.8%
neutral · 39th percentile of its own history · 0.3 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Housing · 20
Mortgage Rate (30yr)
7.40%
Mortgage Rate (30yr)
Value: 7.40%
stress · 52nd percentile of its own history · 0.60 pp from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Home Prices (Case-Shiller)
1.9% YoY
Home Prices (Case-Shiller)
Value: 1.9% YoY
healthy · 29th percentile of its own history · 0.1 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Current housing inventory
1.2M
Current housing inventory
Value: 1.2M
healthy · 76th percentile of its own history · 0.2M from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →New Home Sales
+6.4%
New Home Sales
Value: +6.4%
strong+ · 81st percentile of its own history · 1.4 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Commercial RE Delinquencies
1.53%
Commercial RE Delinquencies
Value: 1.53%
healthy · 42nd percentile of its own history · 0.53 pp from the strong+ edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
Mortgage Delinquency
Value: 1.86%
strong+ · 20th percentile of its own history · 0.14 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Building Permits
1403K
Building Permits
Value: 1403K
healthy · 53rd percentile of its own history · 3K from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Housing Starts
1275K
Housing Starts
Value: 1275K
neutral · 31st percentile of its own history · 25K from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Existing Home Sales
3.99M
Existing Home Sales
Value: 3.99M
stress · 11th percentile of its own history · 0.01M from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Single-Family Permits
880K
Single-Family Permits
Value: 880K
neutral · 50th percentile of its own history · 80K from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Single-Family Starts
918K
Single-Family Starts
Value: 918K
stress · 36th percentile of its own history · 32K from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Single-Family Under Construction
589K
Single-Family Under Construction
Value: 589K
neutral · 59th percentile of its own history · 1K from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Single-Family Completions
816K
Single-Family Completions
Value: 816K
stress · 22nd percentile of its own history · 26K from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Residential Construction Spending
−4.8% YoY
Residential Construction Spending
Value: −4.8% YoY
severe · 18th percentile of its own history · 1.3 pp from the stress edge
Severe/critical reading
View full analysis →Residential Construction Jobs
−0.4% YoY
Residential Construction Jobs
Value: −0.4% YoY
stress · 30th percentile of its own history · 2.1 pp from the neutral edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Home Prices (FHFA)
+3.0% YoY
Home Prices (FHFA)
Value: +3.0% YoY
stress · 24th percentile of its own history · 0.5 pp from the severe edge
Concerning reading
View full analysis →Months' Supply (New Homes)
8.5 mo
Months' Supply (New Homes)
Value: 8.5 mo
severe · 88th percentile of its own history · 0.9 mo from the stress edge
Severe/critical reading
View full analysis →Mortgage Debt Service Ratio
5.83%
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio
Value: 5.83%
healthy · 24th percentile of its own history · 0.07 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Housing Affordability (constructed)
28.2%
Housing Affordability (constructed)
Value: 28.2%
neutral · 52nd percentile of its own history · 0.8 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Residential Investment / GDP
3.6%
Residential Investment / GDP
Value: 3.6%
neutral · 11th percentile of its own history · 0.7 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Consumer · 7
All-Loans Delinquency (Banks)
1.38%
All-Loans Delinquency (Banks)
Value: 1.38%
healthy · 6th percentile of its own history · 0.12 pp from the neutral edge
Healthy reading
View full analysis →Credit Card Delinquencies
2.85%
Credit Card Delinquencies
Value: 2.85%
neutral · 31st percentile of its own history · 0.35 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Business Loans
+10.0% YoY
Business Loans
Value: +10.0% YoY
strong+ · 63rd percentile of its own history · 2.0 pp from the healthy edge
Very strong reading
View full analysis →Consumer Loan Delinq.
2.6%
Consumer Loan Delinq.
Value: 2.6%
neutral · 27th percentile of its own history · 0.1 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Consumer Credit
+2.7% YoY
Consumer Credit
Value: +2.7% YoY
neutral · 15th percentile of its own history · 0.3 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Debt Service Ratio
11.11%
Debt Service Ratio
Value: 11.11%
neutral · 21st percentile of its own history · 0.61 pp from the healthy edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →Personal Savings Rate
4.1%
Personal Savings Rate
Value: 4.1%
neutral · 8th percentile of its own history · 0.6 pp from the stress edge
Within normal range
View full analysis →