Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 28 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 25
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 46th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: New home sales were flat to slightly lower (0 to −2%), as in about 1 month in 8 since 1963 (99 of 764). One such month says little on its own.
New Home Sales · Monthly · 1963–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
New Home Sales — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
−0.6%
Within normal range
Aug 2026
+5.1%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
−4.8%
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
+6.9%
Very strong reading
May 2026
−0.8%
Within normal range
Apr 2026
−2.7%
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the New Home Sales MoM?
New home sales measures the number of newly constructed homes sold or placed under contract in a given month. Unlike existing home sales, which are held back when owners with low mortgage rates will not sell, new home sales are free of that constraint: builders do not face the same reluctance to sell when rates are high. This makes them a cleaner read on housing demand as it changes.
The month-over-month change shows whether demand is picking up or fading. On the site's data new home sales have turned before residential construction employment at five of the six turning points since 1985 — by nine months in 2005–06, by more than two years in the 1980s and the 2020s. On year-over-year changes the closest fit is with sales leading by nine to fifteen months. The Census Bureau's monthly figure carries a wide margin of error, so the trend over three or more months means more than any single reading.
New home sales are one of the three leading voters in the site's Housing Cycle. Their twelve-month change moves about a month before single-family starts (the feature's measured lag is −1 month, correlation 0.8; a minus sign means sales move first). The latest vote is abstaining, for 2026-09.
How We Color-Code the New Home Sales MoM
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −5.0%
Sharp monthly fall — down more than 5%, about 1 month in 4 since 1963 (186 of 764). The series is noisy, so one such month is common
−5.0% – −2.0%
Declining — down 2% to 5%, about 1 month in 8 since 1963 (96 of 764)
−2.0% – 0.0%
Flat to slightly lower — down up to 2%, about 1 month in 8 since 1963 (99 of 764)
0.0% – 5.0%
Growing — up to 5% higher, about 1 month in 4 since 1963 (194 of 764)
Above 5.0%
Strong monthly gain — up more than 5%, about 1 month in 4 since 1963 (189 of 764); three in a row is a trend
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Aug 2020COVID Housing Boom
New home sales: 1.02M annualized
The highest pace since 2006 at the time, on record-low mortgage rates and the pandemic demand for space. The boom peaked at 1.03M in October 2020, and sales were down to 535K by July 2022.
Jul 2022Rate shock low
New home sales: −28% YoY
The low of the 2022 rate shock: sales were 28% below a year earlier. Deeper falls came in 1980 (−51%), in 2008–09 (−46%) and, off the 2020 boom, in October 2021 (−33%). The 30-year mortgage rate went from 3.2% in the first week of 2022 to 5.8% by late June and past 6% in September.
2023–2024Recovery from the rate shock
New home sales: 666K (2023 average), 684K (2024)
Sales averaged 636K in 2022, 666K in 2023 and 684K in 2024, even though the 30-year mortgage rate was at or above 7% in 17 weeks of 2023. Builders' rate buydowns and the shortage of existing homes for sale are the usual explanations. The site's existing-home sales series begins in April 2025, so it cannot compare the two recoveries.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are new home sales more market-sensitive than existing home sales?
New home sales are counted when a contract is signed, before construction is complete. This makes them a more forward-looking indicator than existing home sales, which are counted at closing, weeks later. New home sales are also not held back by owners keeping low-rate mortgages, which makes them a cleaner read on underlying housing demand.
Why does the Census Bureau report high margins of error for new home sales?
The monthly new home sales survey has a small sample compared with other economic surveys, and the Census Bureau publishes a wide margin of error with each release. A reported gain can be a fall in reality, or a far larger gain. This is why the three-month average and the trend over several months are read rather than any single month.
How did homebuilders adapt to high mortgage rates in 2022-2023?
Rather than letting demand collapse, many major homebuilders subsidized mortgage rates through "rate buydowns". They paid fees to lower buyers' effective mortgage rate below the market rate, which was at or above 7% in 17 weeks of 2023 (a high of 7.79% in late October). New home sales averaged 666K in 2023, 5% above 2022. The site's existing-home sales series begins in 2025, so the two recoveries are not compared here.
What happens to homebuilder inventories when sales fall?
When new home sales fall faster than builders can slow construction, homes accumulate in inventory — homes under construction, completed but not sold, and spec homes. High inventory pushes builders to cut prices, offer incentives and slow new starts. The site holds no series on builders' inventories or margins; its Months' Supply of New Homes page shows the balance of homes for sale against sales.
Why do new home sales lead existing home sales as an economic indicator?
New home sales are recorded at contract signing, before construction is complete, so they look further ahead. Existing home sales are recorded at closing, weeks after the contract. New home sales also respond more quickly to mortgage rates and builder incentives, since builders can offer rate buydowns and price cuts that sellers of existing homes usually cannot. On the site's data a sustained pickup in new home sales has come ahead of residential construction employment at five of six turning points since 1985.