Data through: Q3 2026 · updated Oct 29 · Updates: Quarterly · Next: Nov 25
QThe three bars show the last 3 quarters for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 54th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: The US economy is growing strongly — GDP at 3% or more annualized. That is the most common reading, about 5 in 10 of all quarters since 1950 (165 of 307). Unemployment was lower 12 months after the release in 117 of the 163 of those quarters with a year behind them, against 186 of 302 after all quarters. The S&P 500 was higher a year later after 117 of the 163 since 1950, no more often than after any other reading. The site holds no earnings series.
REVISION PROFILEReal GDP growth (the quarter's growth, annualised, in per cent): how the first estimate compared with the value three years later. The economy is in an Expansion now (October 2026). Of the 102 times it was first reported during an Expansion, the middle move was +0.04, with half landing between −0.61 and +0.82. It was revised up 51% of the time — 49 of the 96 that moved at all. Across the whole record since 1992, of the 126 first estimates, 58 were later revised up, 62 down and 6 not at all; the middle move was −0.03. Revisions Ledger →
GDP (Annualized) · Quarterly · 1947–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
GDP (Annualized) — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q3 2026
3.4%
Very strong reading
Q2 2026
2.2%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
2.5%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
0.2%
Within normal range
Q3 2025
3.9%
Very strong reading
Q2 2025
4.0%
Very strong reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the GDP?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States in a given period. The quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate shows how fast the economy is expanding or contracting, expressed as the annual rate if the quarter's pace continued for a full year. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional definition of a recession.
GDP is the broadest measure of economic health, and the Fed and markets read it. On the site's data, weak or negative GDP has usually been reported after the market fell, not before it. After the 39 negative quarterly prints since 1950, the S&P 500 fell a further 10% or more within a year about 2 times in 5 (15 of 39), against about 3 in 10 after any quarter (92 of 302). It was higher a year later after 31 of the 39 negative prints since 1950. In 10 of the 11 recessions from 1953 to 2020 the market's low came before the first positive quarter was published. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases three estimates of each quarter over three months: advance, second and third.
How We Color-Code the GDP
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −1.0%
Deep contraction — below −1%: 31 quarters since 1950, about 1 in 10, and 25 of them fell inside a recession
−1.0% – 0.0%
Contraction — between −1% and 0%. Rare, 8 quarters since 1950, 3 of them inside a recession
0.0% – 1.0%
Slow growth — between 0% and 1%. Uncommon, 24 quarters since 1950
1.0% – 3.0%
Steady growth — between 1% and 3%, about 1 quarter in 4 since 1950 (79 of 307)
3.0% or above
Strong growth — 3% or more, the most common reading: about 5 in 10 of all quarters since 1950 (165 of 307)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Q2 2020COVID Shutdown
−28.0%
The deepest single-quarter fall in the record since 1947 (Q2 2020). It was followed at once by the record's largest rise, +34.9% in Q3 2020, as the economy reopened.
Q2 1983Reagan Recovery
+9.4%
The strongest quarter of the 1980s, and the first of four straight quarters above 8% as the economy came out of the 1981–82 recession. The record holds larger quarters in nine earlier years, the largest +16.7% in early 1950.
Q4 2008Financial Crisis
−8.5%
On today's figures the deepest quarterly fall since 1958 outside the 2020 shutdown, and far deeper than first reported. The S&P 500 made its bear-market low on March 9, 2009, five weeks after this quarter's advance estimate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is annualized GDP growth and how is it different from actual quarterly growth?
Annualized GDP takes the actual quarter-over-quarter growth rate and projects it as if that pace continued for a full year. For example, if the economy grew 0.5% in one quarter, the annualized rate is approximately 2.0% (0.5% × 4). This makes quarterly comparisons easier but can exaggerate temporary slowdowns or surges.
Does negative GDP always mean a recession?
No. Of the 44 negative quarters since 1947 on today's revised figures, 31 fell inside an NBER recession and 5 more came within three months of one starting. The other 8 had no recession at all, most recently Q1 2022. Two negative quarters in a row is the popular definition, and in the record an episode of two or more negative quarters came with a recession in 10 of 11; the exception was 1947. The NBER dates recessions from employment, income, spending and production, not from GDP alone, and the 2001 recession had no two negative quarters in a row.
How does GDP affect the stock market?
GDP growth drives corporate revenue and earnings, which shape stock prices over time. Quarter to quarter the link is loose. After the 165 quarters at 3% or more since 1950 the S&P 500 was higher a year later about 7 times in 10 (117 of 163), the same share as after all quarters (224 of 302). Markets look ahead and often move before GDP is reported, which is why stocks sometimes rise during recessions and fall during strong growth.
What is the difference between the advance, second, and third GDP estimates?
The BEA releases three GDP estimates each quarter. The advance estimate (released about 30 days after quarter end) uses incomplete data but is the most market-moving. The second estimate (60 days after) incorporates more complete data. The third estimate (90 days after) is the most comprehensive. Revisions between estimates are usually small but can occasionally be significant.
Why did GDP fall so dramatically in Q2 2020?
The COVID-19 shutdown in Q2 2020 brought the deepest single-quarter fall in the record since 1947: −28.0% annualized on today's revised figures. Spending on services such as restaurants, travel and entertainment stopped almost overnight. The rebound in Q3 2020, +34.9%, was the record's largest rise since 1947. It was reopening, not a return to the pre-COVID level of output.