Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED
Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Jul 31 · Updates: Quarterly (advance estimate ~30 days after quarter end)
QThe three bars show the last 3 quarters for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 28th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: The US economy is in healthy expansion — GDP growth of 1-3% is the Goldilocks zone that supports corporate profits without triggering aggressive Fed tightening. Historically the most sustained equity bull market environment.
REVISION PROFILE first print → settled (+3y): median -0.01% · lean 58↑ / 61↓ of 125 · in benign months: up-lean (38 of 79) · Revisions Ledger →
GDP (Annualized) · Quarterly · 1947–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
GDP (Annualized) — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q2 2026
1.5%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
2.1%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
0.5%
Within normal range
Q3 2025
4.4%
Very strong reading
Q2 2025
3.8%
Very strong reading
Q1 2025
-0.6%
Concerning reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from gdp. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the GDP?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States in a given period. The quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) annualized growth rate shows how fast the economy is expanding or contracting — expressed as the annual rate if the current quarter's pace continued for a full year. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional definition of a recession.
GDP is the broadest measure of economic health. It drives corporate earnings expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and long-term market returns. Strong GDP growth supports higher corporate profits and justifies higher stock valuations. Weak or negative GDP — particularly when combined with rising unemployment and falling consumer spending — historically precedes significant market drawdowns. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases GDP estimates quarterly, with advance, second, and third estimates over three months.
How We Color-Code the GDP
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Q2 2020COVID Shutdown
-28.0%
The largest single-quarter GDP contraction in US history — followed immediately by the largest rebound (+33.8% in Q3 2020) as the economy reopened.
Q3 1983Reagan Recovery
+8.2%
The strongest peacetime GDP growth in modern history — the economy surged after the deep 1981-82 recession as tight monetary policy eased.
Q4 2008Financial Crisis
-8.5%
The worst non-COVID GDP contraction in modern history — coincided with the peak of the financial crisis and S&P 500 near its bear market lows.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current GDP reading of 1.5% (Positive):
✓Goldilocks growth — best sustained environment for equity returns historically
✓Maintain or add to equity exposure — fundamentals support continued expansion
ℹBroad market exposure (S&P 500 index) works well in healthy growth environments
Frequently Asked Questions
What is annualized GDP growth and how is it different from actual quarterly growth?
Annualized GDP takes the actual quarter-over-quarter growth rate and projects it as if that pace continued for a full year. For example, if the economy grew 0.5% in one quarter, the annualized rate is approximately 2.0% (0.5% × 4). This makes quarterly comparisons easier but can exaggerate temporary slowdowns or surges.
Does negative GDP always mean a recession?
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is the popular definition of recession, but the official arbiter in the US is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which uses a broader set of indicators including employment, income, and consumer spending. The US can be in a recession with only one quarter of negative GDP if other indicators deteriorate significantly.
How does GDP affect the stock market?
GDP growth drives corporate revenue and earnings — which ultimately determine stock valuations. Strong GDP growth generally supports higher earnings and higher stock prices. However, the relationship is not immediate: markets are forward-looking and often price in GDP changes before they are officially reported, which is why stocks sometimes rise during recessions (pricing in recovery) and fall during strong growth (pricing in Fed tightening).
What is the difference between the advance, second, and third GDP estimates?
The BEA releases three GDP estimates each quarter. The advance estimate (released about 30 days after quarter end) uses incomplete data but is the most market-moving. The second estimate (60 days after) incorporates more complete data. The third estimate (90 days after) is the most comprehensive. Revisions between estimates are usually small but can occasionally be significant.
Why did GDP fall so dramatically in Q2 2020?
The COVID-19 shutdown in Q2 2020 caused the largest single-quarter GDP contraction in US history at -31.2% annualized. Consumer spending on services (restaurants, travel, entertainment) collapsed almost overnight. The equally dramatic rebound in Q3 2020 (+33.8%) reflected reopening — not a true recovery to pre-COVID levels.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1Why did US GDP growth slow to 1.5% in the second quarter?
Growth decelerated compared to the first quarter due to a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports, partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. The second quarter rate of 1.5% represented a slowdown from the first quarter's 2.1% pace.
2What was strong in the second quarter GDP report?
Consumer spending — which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy — came in at an annualized 3.4% rate in the second estimate. Business investment was also strong, rising 8.5%, led by gains in equipment spending and intellectual property products.
3How was the second estimate different from the first estimate?
The US economy expanded at an unrevised 1.5% pace in the second quarter, though underlying details showed stronger consumer spending and business investment than initially reported. An upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports.
4Which components dragged down second quarter growth?
Government spending decreased while imports increased, with imports being a subtraction in GDP calculation. Spending on structures declined for the tenth consecutive quarter.
5How strong was real demand according to the August 26 report?
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of core demand that excludes trade flows, inventories and government spending, rose 4.2% in the second quarter, revised up by 0.3 percentage point from the previous estimate.