Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 17 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 20
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 1.6% MoM↑ 1.5% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 50th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Single-family permits are in the middle fifth of their history — between 790K and 960K, around the long-run median.
Single-Family Building Permits · Monthly · 1960–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Single-Family Building Permits — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
880K
Within normal range
Jul 2026
894K
Within normal range
Jun 2026
872K
Within normal range
May 2026
892K
Within normal range
Apr 2026
881K
Within normal range
Mar 2026
895K
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from sf_permits. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Single-Family Permits?
Single-family building permits count the new privately-owned one-unit housing structures authorized by local building-permit offices during the month. They are reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in thousands of units. A permit is the first documented step in the residential pipeline: it precedes groundbreaking (starts), construction (units under construction), completion, and sale.
This series is the single-family slice of the total building-permits series already on the heatmap (FRED: PERMIT). The two are shown side by side deliberately: multifamily permits move with apartment financing and can swing on a handful of large projects, while single-family permits track the household-driven part of the sector. USMacro's Housing Cycle uses the single-family series as one of its three leading-stage members, alongside single-family starts and new-home sales.
On the sector's own timeline, single-family permits and single-family starts move together at monthly resolution: their 12-month changes correlate at 0.9, with no lead or lag between them. That is why the charter admits both as leading members, by a stated exception to its one-series-per-mechanism rule: permits read the pipeline's intention, starts its execution.
How We Color-Code the Single-Family Permits
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 670K
Bottom quintile — the lowest fifth of all months since 1960
670K – 790K
Second quintile — subdued permitting, about 1 month in 9 since 2008 by today's bands
790K – 960K
Middle quintile — around the long-run median
960K – 1,110K
Fourth quintile — strong single-family permitting
Above 1,110K
Top quintile of the 1960–2026 history — construction intentions at boom-era rates
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Sep 2005Housing bubble peak
1798K
The all-time high; single-family permits fell 81% to the January 2009 low
Jan 2009Financial-crisis trough
337K
The all-time low, below every reading of the 1960s to 1980s. Permits did not regain 1,000K until July 2020.
Jan 2021Pandemic building boom
1247K
The highest reading since 2006, on record-low mortgage rates; permits fell back below 900K by mid-2022 as rates rose
Frequently Asked Questions
Why track single-family permits separately from total building permits?
Total permits blend single-family and multifamily units. Multifamily permits depend on apartment financing and can jump or collapse on a few large projects, which adds noise unrelated to household demand. The single-family series isolates the part of the sector that households and small builders drive, and it has 66 years of history from 1960.
How are the color thresholds set?
By a five-band quintile rule: the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles of the series' own history, rounded to the nearest 10K. Today's color reads against the whole history, 1960 to today: the edges now are 670K, 790K, 960K and 1,110K. A past month's color — in the Time Machine and in the monthly table — reads against the history up to that month, as it would have read then, so the edges move a little as data arrives. A color exists once the series has ten years of history (here from 1970). Nothing is tuned to the current reading.
How do single-family permits relate to single-family starts?
At monthly resolution they move together: the 12-month changes of the two series correlate at 0.9, with no measurable lead or lag between them. Permits are the authorization, starts the groundbreaking, and in most months the gap between them is a few weeks. USMacro's Housing Cycle treats both as leading-stage members for that reason.
What does this series show about the current housing cycle?
The Housing Cycle page (built on this and eight other members) names the sector's stage from the leading, coincident and lagging counts. Single-family permits are one of the three leading-stage votes; their reading here is the level, colored against the full history, and the page shows the vote it casts.