Data through: October 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Dec 4
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 37th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Construction employment is growing steadily — the sector is expanding at a healthy pace consistent with continued economic expansion and manageable interest rates.
Construction Employment · Monthly · 1940–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Construction Employment — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
+1.5%
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
+1.4%
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
+1.4%
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
+0.9%
Within normal range
Jun 2026
+0.6%
Within normal range
May 2026
+0.6%
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Construction Jobs?
Construction employment measures the year-over-year percentage change in total workers employed in the US construction sector. It covers residential construction (homebuilding), commercial construction (office, retail, industrial), and civil/infrastructure construction. Construction is often watched as a leading sector because construction projects are long-cycle commitments that employers add and cut in response to changing economic expectations. The record is mixed. Using the figures as first reported, year-over-year growth turned negative ahead of 5 of the 12 recessions since 1948 and only after the start of the others. It also turned negative 11 other times with no recession under way or beginning within 18 months: eight before 1978, in April 2020 as the COVID recession ended, and twice in late 2025, too recent to judge.
When builders stop hiring — or start laying off workers — it signals that demand for both residential and commercial real estate is declining. Construction employment turned negative in February 2007, about a year before the recession that began in 2008.
How We Color-Code the Construction Jobs
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −3.0%
Sharp decline — growth below −3% preceded 3 of the 12 recessions since 1948, on the figures as first reported, and came 8 other times with none within 18 months
−3.0% – −1.0%
Declining — construction sector contracting; negative growth preceded 5 of the 12 recessions since 1948 and came 11 other times with none within 18 months, eight of them before 1978
−1.0% – 1.0%
Flat — construction holding steady, watch for direction
1.0% – 3.0%
Healthy growth — construction sector expanding steadily
3.0% or above
Strong growth — construction sector booming
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Feb 2007Pre-Financial Crisis Turn
Turned negative in February 2007
Construction employment growth ran +1.9% to +7.1% through 2006, then turned negative in February 2007 — about a year before the recession began.
Apr 2020COVID Collapse
YoY: −12.7%
Sharp COVID-driven construction collapse — quickly reversed as housing demand surged with remote work migration and ultra-low mortgage rates.
2022Post-COVID Housing Boom
YoY: +3.2% to +5.1%
Strong construction hiring driven by the housing boom — eventually cooled as the 30-year mortgage rate rose from 2.65% in January 2021 to 7.79% in October 2023, reducing housing demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does construction employment lead the broader economy?
Sometimes. Construction projects are long-cycle commitments: in the site's data a single-family home has spent about 7 months under construction on average, so a hiring stop reflects a judgment about demand months ahead. Using only the data available then, construction jobs turned lower than a year earlier before 5 of the 12 recessions since 1948. In 1990 the turn was reported in the recession's first days, and in the others it came only after the recession had begun. It turned negative 11 other times with no recession under way or in the next year and a half: eight between 1954 and 1977, once in April 2020 as the COVID recession ended, and twice in late 2025, too recent to judge.
How did construction employment behave before the 2008 crisis?
The 2005-2006 US housing boom pulled construction hiring up sharply — year-over-year growth ran +1.9% to +7.1% through 2006. Growth then turned negative in February 2007, about a year before the recession began. The fall that followed was far deeper than the boom had been: growth bottomed at −18.0% in October 2009.
How sensitive is construction employment to mortgage rates?
Less than the textbook suggests. Higher mortgage rates cut demand for new homes, and with it construction hiring. From 1971 to September 2025, a rise of a full point in a year on month-end rates, counted again once the yearly change is back to zero, has been followed by slower construction job growth a year later 9 times out of 12. Builders finish what they have started, so the effect comes slowly. The 30-year mortgage rate rose from 2.65% in January 2021 to 7.79% in October 2023. Construction job growth slowed from its 2022 range of +3.2% to +5.1%, but it stayed above zero until a brief dip in October 2025.
Does construction employment include infrastructure and government projects?
Yes — the construction employment series covers residential construction (homebuilding, renovation) and commercial construction (office, retail, industrial). It also covers heavy/civil construction (roads, bridges, utilities, infrastructure). Government infrastructure projects can support construction employment even when private residential construction is declining, which is why the signal can be mixed during periods of active infrastructure spending.
How does construction employment respond to interest rates?
Construction is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors in the economy. When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates rise, housing activity slows, and construction hiring cools. Conversely, when rates fall and housing recovers, construction hiring tends to recover with it. Building permits and housing starts, also on this site, show the same chain at its earlier steps.