Source: FRED: CORESTICKM159SFRBATL (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 15 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 10
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 35th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Sticky-price inflation is near its norm — between 1.75% and 3.75%, as in about 5 in 10 of all months since 1968 (369 of 705). The slow-moving part of inflation is behaving.
Sticky Price CPI · Monthly · 1968–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Sticky Price CPI — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+2.8% YoY
Within normal range
Aug 2026
+2.7% YoY
Within normal range
Jul 2026
+2.7% YoY
Within normal range
Jun 2026
+2.8% YoY
Within normal range
May 2026
+3.1% YoY
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+3.0% YoY
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from sticky_cpi. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Sticky CPI?
The Sticky Price CPI, produced by the Atlanta Fed, measures inflation in the subset of the CPI basket whose prices change infrequently. These are items repriced less often than every 4.3 months, such as rent, insurance, medical services, education and restaurant menus. The FRED series (CORESTICKM159SFRBATL) is published directly as a year-over-year rate and displayed here as-is.
The logic: when a firm knows it won't reprice again for a year, it sets today's price based on where it expects costs and competitors to be over that whole period. Sticky prices therefore embed inflation expectations in a way that flexible prices (gasoline, airfares, produce) do not. Once sticky-price inflation rises, it stays — it is the "embedded" component of inflation that monetary policy takes years, not months, to reverse.
The 2021–23 episode is the textbook case. Headline CPI peaked first, at 9.0% in June 2022, and fell quickly. Sticky CPI climbed slowly and peaked at 6.5% in December 2022, six months after headline. It was still above 4% at the end of 2023 and stayed there until September 2024. The Fed's rate stayed at 5.3% from August 2023 to August 2024, long after headline inflation had come down. Note the structural level shift: sticky CPI runs about a third of a percentage point above core CPI on average (its basket is service- and shelter-heavy), so its "normal" is nearer 3% than 2%.
How We Color-Code the Sticky CPI
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 1.25%
Deflation risk in the stickiest prices — below 1.25%, about 1 month in 44 since 1968 (16 of 705), in 2010–11
1.25% – 1.75%
Below normal — 1.25% to 1.75%; only 15 months since 1968, in 2009, 2011 and 2020–21
1.75% – 3.75%
Healthy — 1.75% to 3.75%, around the series' modern norm of about 2.5–3%; about 5 in 10 of all months since 1968 (369 of 705)
3.75% – 5.0%
Elevated — 3.75% to 5%, persistence building in prices that change rarely; about 1 month in 6 since 1968 (119 of 705)
Above 5.0%
Embedded inflation — above 5%, about 1 month in 4 since 1968 (186 of 705), in 1968–71, 1973–82, 1984–86, 1990–91 and 2022–23
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 1980Great Inflation Peak
+15.8% YoY
The all-time high. By 1980 double-digit inflation had reached the sticky categories — rents, services, wages — and two recessions followed before it came down.
Dec 2022Post-COVID Persistence Peak
+6.5% YoY
The modern-era high — reached 6 months after headline CPI peaked, as the inflation shock worked its way into rents, insurance and services. The Fed's rate then stayed at 5.3% from August 2023 to August 2024 while sticky CPI came down slowly.
Sep 2010Post-GFC Low
+0.7% YoY
The all-time low. Collapsed rents and service prices after the financial crisis pushed even sticky inflation toward zero — the backdrop for QE2.
Jan 2015Lowflation Era
+2.0% YoY
Sticky inflation near 2% — below its ~3% structural norm — during the mid-2010s lowflation regime. Even the sticky basket confirmed inflation was genuinely quiet, supporting years of near-zero rates.
Jun 1997Anchored 1990s Benchmark
+2.8% YoY
The textbook anchored reading: sticky inflation near its norm during the late-1990s boom, with expectations firmly tethered.
Dec 2019Pre-COVID Baseline
+2.8% YoY
The last reading of the pre-pandemic regime — sticky inflation sitting exactly at its anchored norm after a decade of stability. The benchmark against which the 2021-23 surge and subsequent normalization are measured.
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a price "sticky"?
Repricing frequency. Using BLS data on how often individual prices change, the Atlanta Fed calls any CPI category repriced less often than every 4.3 months sticky: rent, insurance, medical care, education, restaurant meals. The rest, such as gasoline, airfares, produce and vehicles, count as flexible. Roughly 70% of the CPI basket by weight is sticky.
Why does sticky inflation lag headline inflation?
Because sticky prices reprice slowly by definition. A cost shock hits flexible prices within weeks, but a landlord resets rent once a year and an insurer refiles premiums annually. The 2021–23 episode showed the full mechanics: headline CPI peaked in June 2022, sticky CPI in December 2022, and sticky stayed above 4% until September 2024. Sticky CPI moves less than headline, but it has not been the better guide to where inflation settles. As a guess of headline CPI two years on, today's sticky reading has missed by 2.0 points on average since 1968; headline itself missed by 2.2 and core CPI by 2.0. One year on, headline and core CPI each did a little better than sticky.
Why does sticky CPI run higher than core CPI?
Composition. The sticky basket is dominated by services and shelter, which have inflated faster than goods for decades (goods prices were held down by globalization and productivity). Over the same months since 1968, the sticky CPI's middle reading is 3.35% against core CPI's 3.05%; the gap averages a third of a point. This site's colour bands are shifted up accordingly.
How should sticky CPI be read together with the other persistence gauges?
Each attacks persistence differently: median CPI and trimmed mean PCE use the statistical distribution of price changes; sticky CPI uses repricing frequency. When all of them are elevated together (as in 2022), inflation is broad AND embedded — the worst case. When headline measures are hot but sticky is quiet (as in mid-2021), there is a genuine case the shock is transitory.
How are this page's colour levels set?
Four levels set the colours. 1.75% and 3.75% bound the healthy range. They sit higher than the healthy range for median CPI and core CPI, because sticky CPI's service- and shelter-heavy basket runs above core CPI, so its normal is nearer 3% than 2%. Above 3.75% persistence is building in prices that change rarely; above 5% inflation is embedded. On the low side, below 1.75% weakness has reached even the prices that change rarely, and below 1.25% the stickiest prices are close to deflation. Both ends are coloured as problems, because persistently high and persistently low inflation both do damage. They are fixed levels, set in July 2026 with the series' whole history in view, and they do not move as new data arrives. A reading above 5% gets the same colour in 1980 as today, so a change of colour is a change in sticky-price inflation, never in the yardstick.