Source: Census Bureau / BLS (real series) via FRED
Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 15 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 17
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 54th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Real demand is growing moderately — between 1% and 3% above the year before, around the 2.2% long-run median and the most common reading since 1993 (154 of 404 months).
Real Retail Sales · Monthly · 1992–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Real Retail Sales — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+2.4% YoY
Within normal range
Aug 2026
−2.0% YoY
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
−2.9% YoY
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
−1.6% YoY
Concerning reading
May 2026
−1.7% YoY
Concerning reading
Apr 2026
−3.4% YoY
Severe/critical reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from real_retail_sales_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Real Retail Sales?
Real Retail and Food Services Sales (FRED: RRSFS) is the Census Bureau's advance retail sales series adjusted for inflation: nominal retail sales deflated by the CPI to a measure in constant 1982–84 dollars. It measures whether consumers are actually buying more goods, not just paying more for the same goods.
Why real matters: nominal retail sales rise with inflation even when real demand is flat or falling. 2022 is the clearest example. Nominal retail sales were 7% to 10% above the year before from April to October 2022, which looked healthy on its own. Real retail sales told a different story: 0.1% below the year before in June 2022 and 1.2% below in December. Inflation supplied the nominal gain while demand had stalled.
This is distinct from the site's nominal Retail Sales indicator (RSXFS, shown month over month). That series measures dollar volumes month to month; this one measures inflation-adjusted demand year over year.
Like real personal income and industrial production, real retail sales is one of the consumer-demand series the NBER reads when it dates recessions. It is shown here as a year-over-year percent change.
How We Color-Code the Real Retail Sales
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −3.0%
Real demand falling hard — more than 3% below the year before. Rare, 28 months since 1993, and 15 of them inside a recession
−3.0% – 1.0%
Weak or stalling — between −3% and +1%, about 1 month in 5 since 1993 (83 of 404), 11 of them inside a recession
1.0% – 3.0%
Moderate growth — between 1% and 3%, the most common reading: about 4 months in 10 since 1993 (154 of 404)
3.0% – 5.0%
Healthy growth — between 3% and 5%, above the 2.2% long-run median; about 1 month in 4 since 1993 (93 of 404)
Above 5.0%
Strong real demand — 5% or more, about 1 month in 9 since 1993 (46 of 404)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID shutdown
−19.9%
The steepest fall on the site's data since 1992, as the economy shut down.
Dec 2008Great Financial Crisis trough
−11.4%
Real sales 11.4% below the year before at the depth of the 2008–09 recession.
Apr 2021Post-COVID reopening surge
+45.8%
The highest reading on the site's data, but a base effect, not 46% real growth. It is measured against April 2020, the shutdown low (−19.9%).
Mar 2021Stimulus + reopening spending
+25.5%
Largely a base effect against the spring 2020 shutdown lows, lifted by the stimulus payments of March 2021.
Dec 2022Inflation bite — real demand negative
−1.2%
The signature case for this indicator. In June 2022 nominal retail sales were 8.9% above the year before while real sales were 0.1% below. By December nominal growth had slowed to 3.5% and real sales were 1.2% lower: inflation had supplied all of the nominal gain.
Mar 1994Mid-1990s expansion strength
+8.5%
Real sales 8.5% above the year before in the mid-1990s expansion.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is this different from the regular Retail Sales indicator on this site?
The nominal Retail Sales indicator (RSXFS) measures total retail dollar receipts month over month. It is not adjusted for inflation, so it can rise even when consumers are buying less, simply because prices went up. Real Retail Sales (RRSFS) adjusts for inflation using the CPI, so it measures whether consumers are genuinely buying more goods. The year 2022 shows the difference: nominal retail sales ran 7% to 10% above the year before from April to October, while real sales were near zero or negative. Inflation accounted for nearly all of the nominal gain. For real demand, the real series is the one to read.
Why use the real (inflation-adjusted) version instead of nominal?
Nominal retail sales measure dollars spent. Real retail sales measure goods purchased in constant-dollar terms. If prices rise 8% and nominal sales rise 8%, real sales are flat: consumers bought exactly as much as before, at higher prices. The distinction matters most in inflationary periods, and 2022 showed nominal strength that masked real stagnation. Real retail sales measures demand itself: how much people bought, not how many dollars they spent.
Why are the 2021 numbers so extreme (+45.8% in April, +25.5% in March)?
Mostly base effects, but not only. April 2020 saw the deepest fall in real retail sales in the site's data, 19.9% below a year earlier, as the economy shut down. Against that low base, a simple return to normal reads as a rise of about 25%. The rest was real: stimulus checks lifted spending, and in March 2021 alone real sales rose about 10% in a month. By April 2021 they were about 15% above their February 2020 level — a genuine jump, but nothing like the 46% the yearly comparison shows. It is a clear example of a base effect distorting a year-over-year series.
Why does this matter for recession analysis?
Consumer spending is about 70% of US GDP, so a fall in real retail sales means consumers are buying fewer goods. The NBER reads consumer-demand series when it dates recessions. Real retail sales fell below the year before in each of the three recessions since 1992, deepest in 2020 (−19.9%) and 2008–09 (−11.4%). But a run of three negative months has also come with no recession, on the figures as first reported, four times out of five: in mid-2020 after the shutdown recession had ended, and in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
What is a typical level of real retail sales growth?
The long-run median since 1993 is about 2.2% a year. Readings of 5% or more are about 1 month in 9. Real retail sales has been below the year before in about 18% of months since 1993 (72 of 404); 22 of those months fell inside a recession and 50 did not, most recently in August 2026. Outside recessions, readings of 1% to 4% are typical. The 2020–21 readings were extremes in both directions: −19.9% in April 2020 and the +45.8% base-effect peak of April 2021.