Data through: August 2026 · updated Oct 2 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 2
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 18th percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: Year-over-year spending growth is below −3.5% — the bottom quintile of its history, by today's bands about 1 month in 5 since 1994 (20%). Those months came in 1995, 2006–11, 2018–19, 2023 and 2026; 18 of the 79 fell inside a recession.
Residential Construction Spending (YoY) · Monthly · 1994–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Residential Construction Spending (YoY) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
−4.8% YoY
Severe/critical reading
Jul 2026
−5.9% YoY
Severe/critical reading
Jun 2026
−4.2% YoY
Severe/critical reading
May 2026
−4.3% YoY
Severe/critical reading
Apr 2026
−3.5% YoY
Severe/critical reading
Mar 2026
−0.2% YoY
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from res_construction_spending. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Res. Construction Spending?
This indicator shows the year-over-year percent change in private residential construction spending. That is the Census Bureau's estimate of the dollar value of new single-family and multifamily construction plus improvements put in place during the month, in nominal dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The heatmap cell and the vote on the Housing Cycle page use this year-over-year rate; the underlying dollar level is stored alongside it.
Spending tracks the work physically under way rather than the decision to build. On the Housing Cycle's record its 12-month change correlates most with single-family starts 3 months earlier (correlation 0.8). That places it in the Coincident stage, with single-family completions and units under construction.
Two caveats. The series is nominal: there is no monthly residential construction deflator on FRED, so a period of rapid materials inflation (2021–22) shows as spending growth that partly reflects prices, not volume. And it begins in 1993, the shortest history of any Housing Cycle member, so its quintile bands are calibrated on 33 years rather than 60.
How We Color-Code the Res. Construction Spending
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −3.5%
Bottom quintile — spending contracting, by today's bands about 1 month in 5 (79 of 392); 18 of those months fell inside a recession
−3.5% – 5.5%
Second quintile — flat to slow
5.5% – 10.5%
Middle quintile — around the series' median growth
10.5% – 16.5%
Fourth quintile — strong growth
Above 16.5%
Top quintile of the 1994–2026 history — boom-rate growth in residential building, by today's bands about 1 month in 5 (79 of 392)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 2021Pandemic building boom
+34.1%
The fastest growth in the series, partly a base effect on the 2020 lockdown and partly materials inflation. Growth turned negative in December 2022.
May 2009Financial-crisis collapse
−37.9%
The deepest contraction on record. Spending did not regain its February 2006 level until October 2020.
Dec 2006Bubble bust begins
−18.7%
A year before the recession began in December 2007, residential spending was already contracting at a double-digit rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why show the year-over-year rate instead of the dollar level?
The dollar level has more than quadrupled since 1993 with population, prices and home sizes, so its own history mostly ranks it by era, not by the cycle. For example, every month from January 2021 to July 2026 sat in the top fifth of that history. The year-over-year rate measures the cycle directly; the level is stored for context, and the Housing Cycle page works from it.
Is this series adjusted for inflation?
No. FRED carries no monthly residential construction deflator, so the series is nominal. During 2021–22 lumber prices averaged about twice their 2019 level, so part of the growth was price rather than more building. Without a deflator the site cannot say how much. USMacro states this rather than constructing a deflator it cannot source.
How are the color thresholds set?
By a five-band quintile rule: the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles of the series' own year-over-year history, rounded to the nearest half percent. Today's color reads against the whole history, 1994 to today: the edges now are −3.5%, 5.5%, 10.5% and 16.5%. A past month's color — in the Time Machine and in the monthly table — reads against the history up to that month, as it would have read then, so the edges move a little as data arrives. A color exists once the series has ten years of history (here from 2004). Nothing is tuned to the current reading. The 33-year history is the shortest of any Housing Cycle member, and the bands are calibrated on it alone.
What role does this series play in the Housing Cycle?
One of three coincident-stage votes. Its stage was assigned by data: on the Housing Cycle's record its 12-month change correlates most with single-family starts 3 months earlier, inside the charter's one-to-six-month coincident band.