USMacroBETA

Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate

Neutral
CURRENT VALUE
2.6%
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Quarterly
↓ 0.1 pp YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 27th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Consumer delinquency is moderate — some financial stress is building across consumer loan types. The breadth of the stress (affecting multiple loan types) is more concerning than any single category rising.
Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate · Quarterly · 1987–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate — the last 8 quarters

Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

QuarterValueBand
Q2 20262.6%Within normal range
Q1 20262.6%Within normal range
Q4 20252.6%Within normal range
Q3 20252.7%Within normal range
Q2 20252.8%Within normal range
Q1 20252.8%Within normal range

Quarter-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from consumer_delinquency. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the Consumer Delinquency?

The consumer loan delinquency rate is a broad measure of financial stress in the consumer lending market, covering all non-mortgage consumer loans including auto loans, personal loans, and other installment credit (but typically excluding credit cards which are tracked separately). It represents the percentage of outstanding consumer loan balances that are 30 or more days past due.

As an aggregate measure across multiple consumer loan types, this indicator smooths out the volatility of individual loan categories and provides a comprehensive picture of household financial health. When the broad consumer delinquency rate rises, it signals that stress is widespread across the consumer credit spectrum rather than isolated to one loan type — a more serious signal than any single category rising alone.

How We Color-Code the Consumer Delinquency

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Below 1.5%
Very low — consumers managing all loan types comfortably
1.5% – 2.0%
Low — broad consumer credit market healthy
2.0% – 2.5%
Moderate — some consumer stress across loan types
2.5% – 3.0%
Elevated — widespread consumer financial pressure
Above 3.0%
High — broad consumer financial distress

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Q1 2010Financial Crisis Peak
4.7%
Broad-based consumer financial distress during the worst unemployment since the Great Depression — affected all consumer loan categories simultaneously.
Q3 2021Stimulus-Era Low
1.5%
Near-historic low as stimulus and forbearance programs temporarily eliminated consumer financial stress across all loan types.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current Consumer Delinquency reading of 2.6% (Neutral):

ℹRising broad delinquency — watch specific categories for stress concentration
✓Reduce consumer finance exposure modestly

Frequently Asked Questions

Why track broad consumer delinquency when auto and CC are tracked separately?
Individual loan category delinquency can spike for category-specific reasons (e.g., auto delinquency rose partly due to COVID-era vehicle price inflation). When the BROAD consumer delinquency rate rises, it confirms that stress is systemic rather than sector-specific — a much more serious economic signal. Breadth of delinquency is as important as depth.
How does consumer delinquency differ across income levels?
Lower-income borrowers have significantly higher delinquency rates than upper-income borrowers at all times. The aggregate rate reflects the weighted average. When delinquency rises sharply, it often signals that lower-income households (who had marginal financial buffers) have been overwhelmed first. As delinquency spreads upward through income levels, it signals broader economic deterioration.
What consumer loan delinquency rate has historically triggered a tightening of bank lending standards?
When the aggregate consumer loan delinquency rate at commercial banks rises above 2.5–3%, banks typically respond by tightening underwriting standards — raising credit score minimums, reducing loan-to-value ratios, and pulling back on unsecured lending. This credit tightening reduces the flow of new credit to households, which then slows consumption spending. The feedback loop between rising delinquency, tighter standards, and slower spending is one of the key transmission mechanisms through which financial stress becomes economic contraction.
How does consumer loan delinquency at commercial banks differ from delinquency across all lenders?
The DRCLACBS series from FRED covers only commercial bank portfolios — which skew toward prime and near-prime borrowers. Credit unions, finance companies, and non-bank lenders (who often serve subprime borrowers) are not included. This means the aggregate rate here likely understates total consumer loan stress in the system. It is best used for trend analysis — direction and rate of change matter more than the absolute level when comparing to total market conditions.
Why does consumer loan delinquency tend to lag unemployment by several months?
When workers lose their jobs, they typically exhaust savings and reduce discretionary spending before missing loan payments — especially on secured debts like mortgages and auto loans. The sequence is: job loss → income drop → savings drawdown → delinquency → default. This lag means consumer delinquency often peaks after unemployment has already begun to fall, making it a coincident-to-lagging rather than leading indicator. Investors should watch the direction of change in delinquency alongside the direction of jobless claims to understand where in this sequence the economy currently sits.