Data through: Oct 16, 2026 · updated Oct 16 · Updates: Daily (market days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 97th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: Gold is between $3,500 and $4,500, a range first reached in August 2025, so the record holds no earlier case. Sharp rises in gold have not warned of stock falls: after gold jumped 10% in a month, the S&P 500 was lower three months later about 1 time in 3 (10 of 29).
Gold Price · Daily · 2000–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Gold Price — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
$4,186.70
Concerning reading
Sep 2026
$4,186.70
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
$4,481.50
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
$4,107.00
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
$4,038.50
Concerning reading
May 2026
$4,593.00
Severe/critical reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from gold. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Gold?
Gold is priced here per troy ounce in US dollars, as the COMEX front-month futures contract. The site's record begins in August 2000, when gold stood at $274.
Gold is often read as a gauge of fear, but its record as a warning is thin. Since 2000 it has risen 25% or more in a year in ten separate periods. A recession came with or within a year of three of them: 2007–08, 2019 and 2020.
Its clearest link on the site's data is with real interest rates. Since 2004, gold's change over a year has run opposite to the change in the 10-year real yield, with a correlation of −0.41.
How We Color-Code the Gold
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below $1,800.00
Below $1,800 — where gold spent most of the record: about 4 days in 5 since 2000 (79%), including every day before August 2011
$1,800.00 – $2,500.00
$1,800 to $2,500 — the range of 2020–24, plus a few weeks of 2011: about 1 day in 8 since 2000 (12%)
$2,500.00 – $3,500.00
$2,500 to $3,500 — a range first reached in August 2024: about 1 day in 25 since 2000 (4%)
$3,500.00 – $4,500.00
$3,500 to $4,500 — a range first reached in August 2025, so the record holds no earlier case
Above $4,500.00
Above $4,500 — reached only since late December 2025. The record close, $5,318, came on January 29, 2026
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Aug 20112011 high
$1,889
The highest close of the 2011 run. Gold did not close that high again for almost nine years, until July 2020.
Aug 2020First close above $2,000
$2,069
Gold closed above $2,000 for the first time on August 4, 2020. It peaked two days later, on August 6, at $2,069.
Jan 2026Record high
$5,318
The record close on the site's data. Gold had nearly doubled in a year, from $2,770 on January 29, 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
What has followed sharp rises in gold?
Less than its reputation suggests. Since 2000 gold has risen 25% or more in a year in ten separate periods, and a recession came with or within a year of three of them. After the 61 month-ends with gold up that much and a year to look back on, the S&P 500 was higher a year later in 50, about 4 times in 5. Most of the 11 exceptions came in 2007–08.
Has gold moved with inflation?
Only loosely on the site's data. Since 2004, gold's change over a year has barely tracked the change in the 10-year breakeven, the bond market's expected inflation (a correlation of 0.13). It has tracked the 10-year real yield more closely, in the opposite direction (a correlation of −0.41).
Why does gold have an inverse relationship with real interest rates rather than nominal rates?
Gold pays no interest, so what holding it gives up is the return on safe bonds after inflation. When real yields rise, gold costs more to hold; when they fall, it costs less. On the site's data since 2004, gold's change over a year has run opposite to the change in the 10-year real yield, with a correlation of −0.41.