USMacroBETA

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Neutral
CURRENT VALUE
2.85%
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Quarterly
↓ 0.2 pp YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 31th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Credit card delinquency is moderate — some consumer financial pressure is building. Not yet alarming but worth monitoring, particularly for lower-income households most vulnerable to high interest rates.
Credit Card Delinquency Rate · Quarterly · 1991–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

Credit Card Delinquency Rate — the last 8 quarters

Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

QuarterValueBand
Q2 20262.85%Within normal range
Q1 20262.91%Within normal range
Q4 20252.95%Within normal range
Q3 20252.99%Within normal range
Q2 20253.04%Within normal range
Q1 20253.05%Within normal range

Quarter-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from cc_delinquency_rate. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the CC Delinquency?

The credit card delinquency rate measures the percentage of outstanding credit card balances where payments are 30 or more days past due. With approximately $1.1 trillion in outstanding credit card debt and interest rates averaging 20%+, credit card delinquency is one of the most sensitive measures of consumer financial stress. Unlike mortgage or auto loans, credit card debt is unsecured — lenders cannot repossess an asset — making the delinquency rate a direct measure of consumers' ability to manage their obligations.

Credit card delinquency typically rises before auto delinquency and mortgage delinquency, making it a leading indicator of consumer financial stress. When consumers fall behind on credit cards, it signals they have already exhausted easier coping mechanisms (savings depletion, borrowing from family, reducing discretionary spending) and are now unable to meet minimum payment obligations on revolving debt charging 20%+ interest.

How We Color-Code the CC Delinquency

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Below 2.0%
Very low — consumers managing credit well, financially healthy
2.0% – 2.5%
Low — credit card market stable
2.5% – 3.0%
Moderate — some consumer credit stress
3.0% – 3.5%
Elevated — meaningful consumer financial pressure
Above 3.5%
High — significant consumer financial distress

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Q1 2010Financial Crisis Peak
6.33%
The highest credit card delinquency in modern history — combined with 10% unemployment and collapsed home equity, consumers faced a devastating financial triple-whammy.
Q4 2021Stimulus-Era Low
1.53%
Near-historic low as government stimulus, enhanced unemployment, and student loan forbearance temporarily eliminated consumer financial stress.
2023-2026Normalization and Rising Stress
CC delinquency: 3.0%+
Rising toward pre-financial crisis levels as stimulus benefits expired, inflation eroded purchasing power, and 20%+ credit card rates strained consumers.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current CC Delinquency reading of 2.85% (Neutral):

ℹRising CC delinquency — watch trend, particularly among lower-income households
✓Reduce subprime consumer finance exposure

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is credit card delinquency such a sensitive stress indicator?
Credit cards are the last resort — consumers deplete savings, skip other payments, and borrow from family before missing credit card minimums. When credit card delinquency rises, it means consumers have already exhausted all other coping mechanisms. Additionally, credit cards charge 20%+ interest, meaning missed payments compound rapidly. Rising CC delinquency therefore signals more severe financial distress than missing other payment types.
What is the current average credit card interest rate?
As of 2025-2026, the average credit card interest rate is approximately 20-22% — the highest in modern history, driven by the Fed's rate hikes flowing through to floating-rate consumer credit. At 20% interest, a $5,000 balance costs $1,000/year in interest alone. This high rate environment dramatically increases financial stress for consumers carrying balances.
Are credit card delinquencies a leading or lagging indicator?
Credit card delinquency is a leading-to-coincident indicator relative to the broader economy — it rises before mortgage delinquency but slightly after initial jobless claims. Sustained increases of 3+ months in CC delinquency are a reliable early warning of broader consumer financial stress that eventually shows up in GDP and retail sales data.
At what credit card delinquency rate does consumer spending typically begin to contract?
Credit card delinquency rates above 3% have historically been associated with tightening credit conditions — banks raise standards, reduce credit limits, and pull back on new card issuance. This credit contraction reduces households' ability to bridge income gaps with debt, causing spending to slow. The 2008–2009 cycle saw credit card delinquency peak near 6.8%. The current level relative to the 1.5–2.5% normal range indicates how much stress is building in revolving consumer credit.
How do credit card delinquency trends relate to charge-off rates and bank earnings?
Delinquency leads charge-offs by approximately 90–180 days — a loan becomes delinquent before a bank writes it off as a loss. Rising delinquency therefore provides advance warning of future bank earnings pressure from higher credit loss provisions. When credit card delinquency rises sharply, bank stocks often underperform as markets price in the inevitable wave of charge-offs. Tracking delinquency gives investors a 1–2 quarter lead on reported bank credit losses.