Source: FRED: DGORDER (US Census Bureau M3 Survey)
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 25 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 27
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 44th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Orders are about flat on the month, within half a percent either way, as in about 1 month in 6 since 1992 (64 of 414). A single flat month has said little; the headline swings with aircraft orders.
Durable Goods Orders · Monthly · 1992–2026
NBER recessions
Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
Durable Goods Orders — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
−0.1%
Within normal range
Jul 2026
+0.9%
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+0.6%
Healthy reading
May 2026
−4.0%
Severe/critical reading
Apr 2026
+8.5%
Very strong reading
Mar 2026
+1.3%
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from durable_goods_mom_pct. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Durable Goods?
Durable Goods Orders measures new orders placed with US manufacturers for goods intended to last three years or more — including aircraft, machinery, computers, vehicles, and defense equipment. Reported monthly by the US Census Bureau as part of the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey, the headline figure swings with lumpy aircraft orders. The more closely watched measure is orders excluding transportation, and especially nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft — the "core capex" measure that feeds the BEA's estimate of business investment.
Orders are read as a sign of business confidence: when companies order more equipment, they expect demand. On the site's data, orders have moved with factory output in the same months rather than ahead of it. Runs of three straight monthly declines in core capital goods orders have been a mixed guide. On the figures first reported, the 14 such runs since 1992 came before a recession twice, with one already under way four times, and with none eight times. Industrial production was lower six months later after 8 of the 14.
How We Color-Code the Durable Goods
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −1.5%
Sharp fall — below −1.5%, more than 1 month in 4 since 1992 (117 of 414), most of them aircraft swings: only 17 fell inside a recession
−1.5% – −0.5%
Falling orders — between −1.5% and −0.5%, about 1 month in 13 since 1992 (32 of 414)
−0.5% – 0.5%
Flat orders — within half a percent of the month before, about 1 month in 6 since 1992 (64 of 414)
0.5% – 1.5%
Healthy growth — up 0.5% to 1.5%, about 1 month in 8 since 1992 (51 of 414)
Above 1.5%
Strong growth — up more than 1.5%, about 1 month in 3 since 1992 (150 of 414), many of them aircraft months
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID-19 shutdown
−19.3%
The second-sharpest monthly fall since 1992, after August 2014's −21.2%, as factories shut.
May 2020Reopening surge
+11.7%
The fifth-largest monthly gain since 1992, as factories reopened.
Feb 2026Third straight decline
−1.2%
A third straight monthly decline, after −0.9% in December and −0.4% in January.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the durable goods headline number so volatile, and what do economists read instead?
The headline is dominated by aircraft orders, which arrive in lumps: a single large order can swing the month by several percentage points. Economists and the Fed look instead at nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, known as core capex. It leaves out defense spending and aircraft to show business spending on machinery, computers and equipment.
How do durable goods orders relate to GDP business investment?
Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft — a related Census series this site does not hold — feed the BEA's estimate of business investment. On this site's data, a quarter's orders growth has moved with the same quarter's GDP growth (a correlation of 0.69 for the headline and 0.50 for core) and said little about the quarters after.
What does a sustained decline in durable goods orders signal about recession risk?
Not reliably. On the figures first reported, the 14 runs of three straight declines in core orders since 1992 came before a recession within a year twice, with one already under way four times, and with none eight times. Industrial production was lower six months later after 8 of the 14.
How quickly does the durable goods report respond to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy?
Capital purchases are financed, so borrowing costs matter to them. On this site's data, after the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, core capital goods orders kept rising for two quarters (+1.0% to September 2022) and then fell 4.0% over the next six months. Headline orders, carried by aircraft, rose through both half-years. The site holds no measure of how quickly orders answer a rate change in general.
What is the difference between new orders and unfilled orders for durable goods?
New orders measure demand placed in the month — the flow of incoming business. Unfilled orders, the backlog, measure orders received but not yet shipped — the work in the pipeline. This site holds new orders only, so it makes no claim about the backlog.