Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 21 · Updates: Monthly (released last Monday of the following month)
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 41th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: CFNAI is near zero — the economy is growing at approximately its historical trend rate.
CFNAI · Monthly · 1967–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
CFNAI — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
-0.04
Within normal range
Jul 2026
+0.08
Within normal range
Jun 2026
-0.01
Within normal range
May 2026
-0.10
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+0.13
Within normal range
Mar 2026
-0.11
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from cfnai. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the CFNAI?
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index combining 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed so that a zero value corresponds to the historical trend rate of growth. Readings below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion have historically indicated a recession has begun. It is one of the broadest and most comprehensive single economic gauges available.
How We Color-Code the CFNAI
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Above +0.70
Well above trend growth — economy is accelerating strongly.
+0.20 to +0.70
Above trend growth — economy is expanding at a healthy pace.
-0.20 to +0.20
Near trend growth — economy is growing at its historical average rate.
-0.70 to -0.20
Below trend growth — economic activity is slowing.
Below -0.70
Significantly below trend — Chicago Fed uses -0.70 as their official recession threshold.
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Collapse
-18.34
Largest single-month decline ever recorded.
Jun 2020COVID Rebound
+6.33
Largest single-month surge following the collapse.
Jan 2009GFC Low
-3.04
Deepest non-COVID recession reading.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current CFNAI reading of -0.04 (Neutral):
ℹEconomy on trend — no special positioning needed
✓Monitor for direction of change
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CFNAI?
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines 85 monthly economic indicators from four categories: production and income (23 indicators), employment and hours (24 indicators), personal consumption and housing (15 indicators), and sales, orders, and inventories (23 indicators). It is designed so zero = historical trend growth.
What CFNAI reading signals a recession?
The Chicago Fed states that when the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) falls below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is a strong probability a recession has begun. This threshold has been breached before or during every recession since the index began in 1967.
How comprehensive is the CFNAI?
The CFNAI is one of the most comprehensive US economic gauges available, drawing on 85 individual data series from government agencies and private sources. It covers the vast majority of measurable US economic activity in a single number, making it invaluable for cutting through noise from individual indicators.
Why is the CFNAI useful alongside other indicators?
Individual indicators can be distorted by one-time events, seasonal anomalies, or measurement errors. By averaging 85 indicators, the CFNAI reduces this noise dramatically. When the CFNAI is below trend AND unemployment is rising AND credit spreads are widening, the recession signal is much more reliable than any single indicator alone.
How does CFNAI relate to GDP?
The CFNAI provides a monthly read on economic activity, while GDP is only available quarterly with a significant lag. A CFNAI-MA3 consistently below -0.70 often precedes a negative GDP print by 1-3 months, making it a valuable leading indicator for GDP surprises.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1What does the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at -0.08 mean for economic growth?
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged down to -0.08 in July 2026 from 0.06 in June, signaling a slight deterioration in US economic activity. A negative value on the index is associated with below-average growth.
2Which economic sectors showed weakness in the latest CFNAI reading?
The personal consumption and housing category weakened sharply, contributing negative 0.09 points after adding 0.04 points in June. Production-related indicators contributed 0.01 points, down from 0.04 points in June, while the sales, orders and inventories category contributed 0.02 points, also easing from 0.04 points.
3How does the three-month moving average of the CFNAI compare to the headline reading?
The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.04 in July from +0.01 in June. The moving average continues to indicate below-trend growth, though at a less negative level than the headline reading of -0.08.
4Did employment indicators improve in the latest CFNAI report?
Employment-related indicators improved to a negative 0.01-point contribution from negative 0.05 points in June. While employment remains slightly negative overall, it showed meaningful improvement compared to the prior month.
5Is the current CFNAI level consistent with a contracting economy?
A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth. The -0.08 reading indicates below-average growth rather than contraction.