Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 26 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 23
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 53rd percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: CFNAI is near zero — the economy is growing at about its trend rate. This is the most common state, about 1 month in 3 since 1967 (233 of 715).
CFNAI · Monthly · 1967–2026
NBER recessions
Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
CFNAI — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+0.07
Within normal range
Aug 2026
−0.08
Within normal range
Jul 2026
+0.12
Within normal range
Jun 2026
+0.01
Within normal range
May 2026
−0.07
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+0.11
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the CFNAI?
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index combining 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed so that a zero value corresponds to the historical trend rate of growth. It is one of the broadest single gauges of US activity available.
The Chicago Fed's recession rule reads the index's three-month average: when it falls below −0.70 after an expansion, a recession has usually already begun. The average has crossed that line in every recession from 1967 to 2020, between the first and eleventh month of each, and never outside one. The index describes the month just ended; it has not led the economy.
How We Color-Code the CFNAI
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
−0.70 or below
Well below trend — the Chicago Fed's recession line for the three-month average. About 1 month in 11 since 1967 (68 of 715), and most of those months fell inside a recession (56 of 68)
−0.70 – −0.20
Below trend — activity is slowing, as in about 1 month in 5 since 1967 (151 of 715)
−0.20 – 0.20
Near trend — growing at about its average pace, the most common state: about 1 month in 3 since 1967 (233 of 715)
0.20 – 0.70
Above trend — growing faster than average, about 1 month in 4 since 1967 (190 of 715)
Above 0.70
Well above trend — the strongest readings, about 1 month in 10 since 1967 (73 of 715)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Collapse
−18.36
The deepest reading in the index's history, in the first full month of the shutdown.
Jun 2020COVID Rebound
+6.33
The highest reading in the index's history, as the economy reopened.
Jan 2009GFC Low
−3.05
The deepest reading of the financial crisis. Before the pandemic months, only December 1974 had read lower (−3.37).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CFNAI?
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines 85 monthly economic indicators from four categories. Production and income contribute 23 of them, employment and hours 24, personal consumption and housing 15, and sales, orders and inventories 23. It is designed so that zero is the historical trend rate of growth.
What CFNAI reading marks a recession?
The Chicago Fed's rule reads the three-month average: a fall below −0.70 after an expansion means a recession has probably begun. The average has crossed that line in every recession from 1967 to 2020, between the first and eleventh month of each. It has never crossed it outside one.
How comprehensive is the CFNAI?
The CFNAI draws on 85 monthly data series from government agencies and private sources, covering output and income, jobs and hours, spending and housing, and sales, orders and inventories. Putting them in one number smooths out the quirks of any single report.
Why is the CFNAI useful alongside other indicators?
Individual indicators can be distorted by one-time events, seasonal quirks or measurement errors. Averaging 85 of them reduces that noise. The index is a broad reading of the month just ended, not a forecast of the months ahead.
How does CFNAI relate to GDP?
The CFNAI arrives monthly, and the reading for a quarter's last month comes within days of that quarter's first GDP estimate, before it or just after. But it has not led the economy: every fall of its three-month average below −0.70 from 1967 through 2025 came with a recession already under way or ended within the two months before (12 of 12). A quarter of falling GDP fell in the same quarter in 7 of those 12 and in the next quarter in 4 (through August 2026).