Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Quarterly
↓ 0.0 pp YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 42nd percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: CRE delinquency is low — between 1% and 3%, the most common state: about half of all quarters since 1991 (70 of 142). The rise from the 2022 low has stayed inside this band, topping at 1.58% in Q4 2025.
Commercial Real Estate Delinquency · Quarterly · 1991–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Commercial Real Estate Delinquency — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q2 2026
1.53%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
1.56%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
1.58%
Healthy reading
Q3 2025
1.57%
Healthy reading
Q2 2025
1.57%
Healthy reading
Q1 2025
1.57%
Healthy reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Commercial RE Delinq.?
Commercial real estate (CRE) delinquency measures the percentage of commercial real estate loans held by banks that are 30 or more days past due. CRE includes office buildings, retail centers, apartment complexes, industrial warehouses, and hotels. The site holds the Fed's aggregate for all commercial banks; it holds no series by property type.
Banks, and regional banks in particular, hold much of this lending, so a rising rate means credit losses for them. On the site's data the rate fell to its low of 0.63% in Q3 2022, then rose for ten straight quarters to 1.57% in Q1 2025. It has held near that level since, at 1.53% in the latest quarter — about a fifth of the 2010 peak, and below the 3% it stayed above through 1991–96 and 2008–13.
How We Color-Code the Commercial RE Delinq.
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 1.00%
Very low — below 1%, as in about 1 quarter in 5 since 1991 (27 of 142), all of them 2016–23
1.00% – 3.00%
Low — 1% to 3%, the most common state: about half of all quarters since 1991 (70 of 142)
3.00% – 5.00%
Moderate — 3% to 5%, as in 16 quarters since 1991, at the edges of the two high-delinquency periods (1994–96, 2008 and 2012–13)
5.00% – 8.00%
Elevated — 5% to 8%, as in 14 quarters since 1991 (1993–94 and 2008–12)
8.00% or above
High — 8% and above, as in 15 quarters since 1991: 1991–93 and 2009–10, the two cycles' peaks
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Q2 2010Financial Crisis Peak
8.76%
The peak of the 2008–13 cycle. The rate stayed at or above 3% for 22 straight quarters, from Q1 2008 to Q2 2013, and did not fall below 1% until 2016.
Q3 2022Post-COVID Historic Low
0.63%
The lowest rate in the series (Q3 2022), which begins in 1991. From here the rate rose for ten straight quarters, to 1.57% in Q1 2025.
Q4 2025Post-pandemic high
1.58%
The top of the climb from the Q3 2022 low so far (1.58% in Q4 2025) — about a fifth of the 2010 peak. Office loans are widely reported as the stressed part, but the site holds no series by property type.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is office CRE particularly stressed in 2024-2026?
Two forces have weighed on office demand: remote and hybrid work, which cut the space many companies use, and the maturing of low-rate office loans written in 2019–2021 that must be refinanced at much higher rates. A loan written when the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 0.9% (2020) comes due with that yield near or above 4% (2023–2025). At the higher rate a building's rent may no longer cover the payments, and loans that cannot be refinanced pile up as they mature. The site holds no office series, so it cannot measure the office rate itself.
How exposed are US banks to commercial real estate?
The site holds no bank-by-bank exposure figures. What it holds is the delinquency rate on the commercial real estate loans that all US commercial banks carry. That rate was 11.99% at the start of the series in Q1 1991, 8.76% at the 2010 peak, 0.63% at the Q3 2022 low and 1.53% in Q2 2026. It has been at 3% or above in 45 of its 142 quarters, 1991–96 and 2008–13, and at 8% or more in 15 of them.
Can a CRE crisis cause a broader financial crisis?
The site holds no bank-failure or capital data, so it cannot say. What it can show is the rate's own record and its company. It peaked at 8.76% in 2010 while residential mortgage delinquency peaked at 11.48%, and the two rates have risen or fallen together in 103 of the 141 quarters since 1991, through Q2 2026.
Does the site break commercial real estate delinquency down by property type?
No. The series is the Fed's aggregate for all commercial real estate loans at commercial banks; office, retail, apartment and industrial loans are not shown separately here. On the aggregate, the rate has risen four quarters in a row four times since 1991. One episode came inside a recession (2001) and one ahead of one (2007, with the recession beginning in January 2008, under four months after the fourth rise was published). Two came with none (2020–21, 2022–23). Its longest recent climb ran ten quarters, from 0.63% in Q3 2022 to 1.57% in Q1 2025, and it has held near 1.55% since.