Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 17 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 20
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 10.4% MoM↓ 22.9% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 22nd percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: Single-family completions are in the second fifth of their history — between 790K and 950K, subdued deliveries — by today's bands, typical of the years after 2008.
Single-Family Housing Completions — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
816K
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
911K
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
935K
Concerning reading
May 2026
895K
Concerning reading
Apr 2026
899K
Concerning reading
Mar 2026
901K
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from sf_completions. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Single-Family Completions?
Single-family completions count the new privately-owned one-unit homes on which all construction finished during the month, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in thousands. Completions are the last step of the construction pipeline that permits begin: a completed home leaves the under-construction stock and enters the for-sale or occupied stock.
Because a house takes months to build, completions follow starts with a lag: the series' 12-month change correlates most with single-family starts 4 months earlier. That places it in the Housing Cycle's coincident stage — it is the same construction cycle as starts, read at its finish rather than its groundbreaking.
The single-family series is used rather than total completions (FRED: COMPUTSA) for the same reason as the other members. Multifamily completions arrive in large project-sized blocks that follow apartment financing rather than household demand.
How We Color-Code the Single-Family Completions
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 790K
Bottom quintile — deliveries at deep-downturn rates
790K – 950K
Second quintile — subdued deliveries
950K – 1,060K
Middle quintile — around the long-run median
1,060K – 1,210K
Fourth quintile — strong deliveries
Above 1,210K
Top quintile of the 1968–2026 history — boom-era deliveries
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2006Housing bubble peak
1911K
The all-time high, two months after single-family starts peaked (January 2006); completions fell 81% to the 2011 low
Mar 2011Post-crisis trough
368K
The all-time low, 2 years after starts bottomed in March 2009 — the pipeline emptied last
Apr 2024Post-pandemic high
1132K
The highest since 2007, as the homes started in the 2021–23 backlog were finished. It came more than three years after single-family starts had peaked in December 2020.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do completions lag starts?
The Census Bureau's construction survey puts a typical single-family build at about seven to nine months from groundbreaking to completion, longer when labor and materials are scarce. By the Housing Cycle's measure, completions follow single-family starts by about 4 months. That is why the series turns after starts, and why the Housing Cycle places it in the coincident stage rather than the leading one.
How are the color thresholds set?
By a five-band quintile rule: the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles of the series' own history, rounded to the nearest 10K. Today's color reads against the whole history, 1968 to today: the edges now are 790K, 950K, 1,060K and 1,210K. A past month's color — in the Time Machine and in the monthly table — reads against the history up to that month, as it would have read then, so the edges move a little as data arrives. A color exists once the series has ten years of history (here from 1978). Nothing is tuned to the current reading.
Why were completions high in late 2022 when starts were falling?
Because the homes started in the 2020–21 boom were still being finished. Supply-chain delays had stretched build times, so the under-construction backlog delivered through 2022 and 2023 even as new groundbreakings slowed. Completions read the pipeline's exit, not its entrance.
What does this series contribute to the Housing Cycle?
One of three coincident-stage votes (with residential construction spending and single-family units under construction). Its stage was assigned by data — a lag of 4 months behind single-family starts — not by assertion.