Data through: October 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 25
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 5.3% MoM↑ 32.5% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 82nd percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: Heavy truck sales are strong — at or above 450K a year, about 1 month in 5 since 1967 (156 of 718). Only 3 of those months fell inside a recession.
Heavy Truck Sales · Monthly · 1967–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Heavy Truck Sales — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
461K
Very strong reading
Sep 2026
438K
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
413K
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
434K
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
457K
Very strong reading
May 2026
432K
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Heavy Truck Sales?
Heavy truck sales measure the pace of Class 8 truck sales (the large semi-trucks used for long-haul freight) in the United States — each month's unit sales, seasonally adjusted and expressed as an annual rate. Trucking companies and logistics businesses buy these trucks when they expect freight to grow. On the site's data since 1990, sales move with freight volumes month for month rather than ahead of them: the correlation with the Cass Freight index is highest with no lag (0.67) and falls the further ahead you look.
A Class 8 truck is a large purchase that stays in service for years, so buying one is a considered decision about the freight a company expects to carry. Since 1967, sales peaked 1 to 22 months before each of the 8 recession starts and bottomed within a year of each recession's end. The peak is visible only afterwards, and the December 1969 figure is dated about a month after that recession had begun (the calendar's rule for the years before BEA's archive on FRED).
How We Color-Code the Heavy Truck Sales
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 280K
Very weak — below 280K annualized, about 1 month in 6 since 1967 (130 of 718), the last in March 2011
280K – 315K
Weak — 280K to 315K, about 1 month in 8 since 1967 (89 of 718)
315K – 350K
Moderate — 315K to 350K, about 1 month in 6 since 1967 (114 of 718)
350K – 450K
Healthy — 350K to 450K, the most common reading: about 1 month in 3 since 1967 (229 of 718)
450K or above
Strong — at or above 450K annualized, about 1 month in 5 since 1967 (156 of 718), most recently October 2026
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jul 2019Record High Before the Pandemic
583K
The highest month on the site's data since 1967. Sales then fell for ten months, to 299K in May 2020, the month after the pandemic recession ended.
May 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
180K
Sales fell to 180K in May 2009, the lowest reading since June 1983; the record low is 159K, in October 1982. Sales stayed near 220K through 2010 and climbed to 342K by December 2011.
Nov 2022Post-COVID Freight Boom
514K
Sales ran between 419K and 514K over 2021–2022, averaging 469K, below the 2019 record (the high through September 2026). Freight then turned: the Cass Freight index peaked in August 2022 and ran below the year before for 42 straight months from February 2023, as much as 10.6% lower in August 2023.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Class 8 truck and why does it matter economically?
Class 8 trucks are the largest commercial vehicles: semi-trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating above 33,000 pounds. They carry most of the freight that moves by road in America. Buying new ones is a large capital decision for a freight company.
Do truck sales lead freight activity?
Not on this record. This page tracks sales, not orders. Since 1990, sales and the Cass Freight shipments index have moved together month for month: the correlation is highest with no lag (0.67) and falls the further ahead you look (0.57 at six months, 0.46 at twelve). A truck is ordered months before it is delivered and counted as a sale, so the sale tends to arrive with the freight it was bought for, not ahead of it.
Why did heavy truck sales collapse so dramatically in 2009?
The 2008–09 financial crisis brought the deepest fall in freight on the site's data: the Cass Freight index ran 25% below the year before in April 2009. Trucking companies faced falling revenue and credit stress that made financing new trucks hard. The result was 180K in May 2009, the lowest reading since June 1983; the record low, 159K, came in October 1982.
Can high truck sales lead to a freight market problem?
Yes — 2021 to 2024 is the example on this record. Sales ran between 419K and 514K through 2021–2022 while freight volumes were at their highs. The Cass Freight index peaked in August 2022 and from February 2023 ran below the year before for 42 straight months, by as much as 10.6% in August 2023. Sales stayed near or above 460K until early 2025, so more trucks were arriving as freight shrank. They then fell, to 345K by November 2025.