Consumer Credit

Neutral
CURRENT VALUE
+2.6% YoY
Source: Federal Reserve G.19 Release via FRED
Data through: July 2026 · updated Sep 9 · Updates: Monthly (5-6 week lag)
The three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 13th percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: Consumer credit is growing faster than incomes — consumers are supplementing earnings with modest additional borrowing. Manageable in the short term but bears watching.
Consumer Credit · Monthly · 1943–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

Consumer Credit — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Jul 2026+2.6% YoYWithin normal range
Jun 2026+2.5% YoYWithin normal range
May 2026+2.1% YoYWithin normal range
Apr 2026+2.2% YoYWithin normal range
Mar 2026+2.2% YoYWithin normal range
Feb 2026+3.1% YoYConcerning reading

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from consumer_credit. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the Consumer Credit YoY?

Consumer credit growth measures the year-over-year change in total outstanding consumer debt — including credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and personal loans, but excluding mortgage debt. It captures the pace at which American consumers are taking on non-mortgage debt to finance their spending and lifestyle.

Consumer credit growth has a dual interpretation: moderate growth signals healthy consumer confidence and spending ability; excessive growth can signal consumers are borrowing beyond their means to maintain spending in the face of income or affordability challenges. The direction and pace of change matters enormously — consumer credit growing faster than wages suggests households are supplementing insufficient income with debt, which is ultimately unsustainable. The Federal Reserve's G.19 release is the primary source of this data.

How We Color-Code the Consumer Credit YoY

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Below +2% YoY
Low growth — consumers borrowing conservatively, living within means
+2% to +4% YoY
Healthy growth — moderate borrowing consistent with income growth
+4% to +6% YoY
Moderate growth — borrowing slightly above income growth pace
+6% to +9% YoY
High growth — consumers supplementing income with significant debt
Above +9% YoY
Very high — debt-fueled consumption, unsustainable trajectory

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

2005-2007Pre-Crisis Credit Boom
Consumer credit growth: +8% to +10% YoY
Unsustainable consumer borrowing contributed to the financial crisis as households became over-leveraged and vulnerable to any income disruption.
2020COVID Deleveraging
Consumer credit: -2% YoY (declined)
COVID stimulus and lockdowns caused consumers to pay down debt — one of the rare periods of consumer debt reduction in modern history.
2022Post-COVID Borrowing Surge
Consumer credit growth: +10% YoY
Consumers borrowed heavily to maintain spending as inflation eroded purchasing power — contributing to persistent consumer spending even as real incomes fell.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current Consumer Credit YoY reading of +2.6% YoY (Neutral):

Moderate credit growth — consumers borrowing somewhat faster than income growth
Watch delinquency rates — rising credit growth with rising delinquency is more concerning

Frequently Asked Questions

What types of debt are included in consumer credit?
The Fed's G.19 consumer credit report covers revolving credit (primarily credit cards) and nonrevolving credit (auto loans, student loans, personal loans). It explicitly excludes mortgage debt (reported separately). Revolving credit is more sensitive to economic conditions because it can be added or reduced quickly; nonrevolving credit reflects longer-term commitments.
Is consumer credit growth good or bad for the economy?
Context matters enormously. Moderate credit growth (2-4%) that supplements income growth is healthy — it allows consumers to smooth consumption over time. Rapid credit growth (8%+) that compensates for inadequate wage growth is concerning — it means consumers are borrowing to maintain a lifestyle their income cannot support. The key comparison is credit growth versus income growth.
How did COVID affect consumer credit?
COVID created an unprecedented consumer debt reduction — for the first time in decades, consumers paid down credit card and other debt rather than adding to it. Government stimulus (stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment, student loan forbearance) provided income without requiring new borrowing. When stimulus ended, consumers resumed borrowing — often at an accelerated pace to catch up on deferred spending.
What does decelerating consumer credit growth signal about the health of household spending?
Consumer credit growth reflects households' willingness and ability to borrow to support spending. When growth decelerates sharply — especially if it turns negative — it signals either that lenders are tightening standards, that consumers are voluntarily reducing leverage, or both. Either way, it means spending is likely to slow because borrowing has been an important bridge for many households between income and consumption. Sustained negative consumer credit growth has preceded or accompanied every recession since 1980.
How does revolving credit (credit cards) differ from non-revolving credit (auto and student loans) in what they signal?
Revolving credit (credit cards) reflects short-term consumption decisions — rising revolving debt suggests consumers are spending beyond their income, which is either confidence or stress depending on the context. Non-revolving credit (auto loans, student loans) reflects larger, longer-term commitments. When revolving credit grows faster than incomes persistently, it signals balance sheet deterioration. When non-revolving credit contracts, it typically means auto sales or educational enrollment are falling — both indicators of broader demand weakness.