USMacroBETA

Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed)

Negative
CURRENT VALUE
6.76%
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED
Data through: Sep 10, 2026 · updated Sep 11 · Updates: Weekly (every Thursday)
The three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 0.1 pp MoM↑ 0.4 pp YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 42th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Mortgage rates are high — affordability is significantly stressed. Many potential buyers cannot qualify for homes at current prices, reducing demand. The "lock-in effect" (existing owners reluctant to sell and take on higher rates) limits supply, creating a frozen market.
Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed) · Weekly · 1971–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed) — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Sep 20266.76%Concerning reading
Aug 20266.66%Concerning reading
Jul 20266.66%Concerning reading
Jun 20266.49%Within normal range
May 20266.53%Concerning reading
Apr 20266.30%Within normal range

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from mortgage. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the Mortgage Rate?

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the interest rate on the most common type of home loan in the United States — a loan repaid over 30 years at a fixed monthly payment. It is the single most important rate for the US housing market because it directly determines housing affordability for the approximately 65% of Americans who own their homes and the millions who aspire to buy.

Unlike the Federal Funds Rate which is directly set by the Fed, mortgage rates are primarily driven by 10-year Treasury yields — reflecting long-term inflation expectations and economic outlook rather than short-term Fed policy. This is why mortgage rates sometimes move in surprising directions relative to Fed actions. At 3% mortgage rates, a median-priced home is affordable for a household earning $70K/year. At 7% rates, the same home requires $120K+ in income — dramatically reducing the pool of eligible buyers and crushing affordability.

How We Color-Code the Mortgage Rate

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Below 4.0%
Very low rates — maximum housing affordability, strong market conditions
4.0% – 5.5%
Low-moderate rates — affordable housing market, solid activity
5.5% – 6.5%
Moderate rates — affordability reduced but market functioning
6.5% – 7.5%
High rates — significant affordability stress, market slowing
Above 7.5%
Very high rates — severe affordability crisis, market near frozen

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Oct 2023Post-Rate-Hike Peak
7.79%
The highest mortgage rate since 2000 — existing home sales fell to the lowest level since 1995 as affordability collapsed. The "lock-in effect" froze existing homeowners who refused to give up 3% mortgages.
Jan 2021COVID Era Historic Low
2.65%
The lowest 30-year mortgage rate ever recorded — created a historic housing boom as buyers rushed to lock in generational affordability. Prices surged 40%+ as supply could not match demand.
Oct 1981Volcker Inflation Fight
Mortgage rate: 18.63%
The highest mortgage rate in modern history — housing activity nearly stopped entirely. The subsequent decline from 18% to 10% in the mid-1980s was one of the biggest housing tailwinds in history.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current Mortgage Rate reading of 6.76% (Negative):

⚠High rates — housing affordability stressed, homebuilders and mortgage lenders under pressure
✓Reduce homebuilder exposure — high rates crush new home demand
ℹHigh rates can persist — the lock-in effect freezes both buyers and sellers

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do mortgage rates not always follow the Federal Funds Rate?
Mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields, not the short-term Fed Funds Rate. The 10-year yield reflects long-term inflation expectations and economic outlook — which can move independently of Fed short-term rate decisions. When the Fed cuts short-term rates but long-term inflation expectations rise, mortgage rates can actually increase. Conversely, mortgage rates sometimes fall before the Fed cuts rates if bond markets anticipate easing.
What is the "lock-in effect" and why does it matter?
The lock-in effect occurs when existing homeowners refuse to sell because their current mortgage (often 2.5-3.5% from 2020-2021) is far below current market rates (6-8%). Selling would mean giving up their low rate and taking on a much higher rate for a new home. This traps millions of would-be sellers in their current homes, reducing housing supply even further and worsening affordability for buyers despite weak demand.
How much does a 1% change in mortgage rates affect affordability?
A 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates increases the monthly payment on a $400,000 home by approximately $230-250/month — or about $2,700/year. Over a 30-year loan, that 1% increase costs approximately $85,000 in additional interest. This is why mortgage rate changes have such dramatic effects on housing demand — the affordability impact is enormous.
Are 30-year fixed rates typical globally?
No — the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is largely an American invention, made possible by the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) that purchase mortgages from banks. Most other countries use shorter-term fixed rates (5-10 years) or adjustable rates. This means US homeowners are largely insulated from short-term rate changes once they lock in a 30-year fixed rate.
How directly do 30-year mortgage rates follow the Federal Reserve's policy rate?
The 30-year mortgage rate does not directly follow the Fed funds rate — it tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, which is set by market forces rather than the Fed directly. This means mortgage rates can stay elevated even after the Fed cuts rates, if bond markets price in persistent inflation or fiscal concerns. The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury (normally around 150–200 bps) is itself a measure of credit risk and market uncertainty in the housing sector.