Data through: Nov 5, 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Weekly · Next: Nov 12
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 0.2 pp MoM↑ 1.0 pp YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 49th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Mortgage rates are high — 6.5% to 8%, as in 1971–73, 1992–2002, 2006–08 and much of 2022–26. The level alone has not decided sales: new-home sales were above a year earlier in about 7 of 10 such months (108 of 154, through August 2026). Owners holding lower rates have been slow to sell, the lock-in effect, which thins supply.
Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
7.18%
Concerning reading
Oct 2026
7.24%
Concerning reading
Sep 2026
7.03%
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
6.66%
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
6.66%
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
6.49%
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Mortgage Rate?
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the interest rate on the most common type of home loan in the United States — a loan repaid over 30 years at a fixed monthly payment. It is the rate that sets the cost of buying a home for most households, so it shapes affordability for owners who move and for first-time buyers.
Unlike the Federal Funds Rate, which the Fed sets directly, mortgage rates follow 10-year Treasury yields — long-term inflation expectations and the economic outlook rather than short-term Fed policy. This is why mortgage rates sometimes move in surprising directions relative to Fed actions. At the 2.7% average rate of December 2020, the mortgage on a median-priced new home took 18.6% of median family income by the site's constructed measure. At 6.9% in October 2022 it took 35.4%: the burden nearly doubled.
The Housing Cycle reads the rate as a driver, both its level and its two-year change. Today's rate stands at 7.18%, and its change over two years, 0.4 points, is larger than in about 67.9% of all two-year periods since 1971.
How We Color-Code the Mortgage Rate
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 4.00%
Very low — below 4%, seen only in 2011–22: about 1 week in 8 since 1971 (13%)
4.00% – 5.50%
Low to moderate — 4% to 5.5%, as in 2003–04, 2008–19 and 2022: about 1 week in 8 since 1971 (12%)
5.50% – 6.50%
Moderate — 5.5% to 6.5%, as in 1998, 2001–09 and parts of 2022–26: about 1 week in 8 since 1971 (13%)
6.50% – 8.00%
High — 6.5% to 8%, as in 1971–73, 1992–2002, 2006–08 and much of 2022–26: about 1 week in 4 since 1971 (23%)
Above 8.00%
Very high — above 8%, about 4 weeks in 10 since 1971 (39%): every week from July 1973 through 1991, most of 1992 and 1994, and parts of 1993–2000. Not seen since August 2000
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Oct 2023Post-Rate-Hike Peak
7.79%
The highest mortgage rate since 2000. New-home sales had fallen 28% below a year earlier by July 2022, and the site's constructed affordability burden reached its highest since 1990. The site holds no existing-home sales before April 2025.
Jan 2021COVID Era Historic Low
2.65%
The lowest 30-year mortgage rate recorded through September 2026. Sales did not boom from here: new-home sales averaged 769K in 2021 against 830K in 2020. Prices did — the site's home-price index rose 32% from January 2021 to its October 2023 high.
Oct 1981Volcker Inflation Fight
18.63%
The highest mortgage rate on record. Housing starts fell to 837K in November 1981, less than half their 1978 pace. As the rate fell to 10% by 1986, starts averaged 1.8 million that year, 71% above 1982.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do mortgage rates not always follow the Federal Funds Rate?
Mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields, not the short-term Fed Funds Rate. The 10-year yield reflects long-term inflation expectations and the economic outlook, which can move independently of Fed decisions. When the Fed cuts short-term rates but long-term inflation expectations rise, mortgage rates can rise too; they sometimes fall before the Fed cuts, if bond markets anticipate easing. Month to month, the two have moved in opposite directions about 1 time in 3 since 1971 (222 of 664 months, through August 2026).
What is the "lock-in effect" and why does it matter?
The lock-in effect occurs when existing homeowners refuse to sell because their current mortgage (often 2.5–3.5% from 2020–21) is far below current market rates (6–8%). Selling would mean giving up the low rate and taking on a much higher one for the next home. This keeps many would-be sellers in their homes, thinning supply and worsening affordability for buyers even when demand is weak.
How much does a 1% change in mortgage rates affect affordability?
A 1 percentage point rise in the rate, from 4% to 5%, adds about $240 a month to the payment on a $400,000 loan, about $2,900 a year. Over 30 years that one point costs about $85,000 more in interest. That is why rate moves weigh so heavily on housing demand.
Are 30-year fixed rates typical globally?
No — the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is largely an American invention, made possible by the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) that purchase mortgages from banks. Most other countries use shorter-term fixed rates (5-10 years) or adjustable rates. This means US homeowners are largely insulated from short-term rate changes once they lock in a 30-year fixed rate.
How directly do 30-year mortgage rates follow the Federal Reserve's policy rate?
The 30-year mortgage rate does not directly follow the Fed funds rate — it tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, which is set by market forces rather than by the Fed. This means mortgage rates can stay elevated after the Fed cuts, if bond markets price in persistent inflation or fiscal concerns. The spread between the mortgage rate and the 10-year yield is itself a measure of credit risk and uncertainty in the housing market. It ran between 1.4 and 2.1 points in the middle three-fifths of months since 1971, and was 2.0 points in August 2026.