Data through: Oct 9, 2026 · updated Oct 15 · Updates: Weekly · Next: Oct 21
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 39th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Financial conditions are slightly loose, as in about 3 weeks in 10 since 1971 (32%). After month-ends here the S&P 500 was higher a year later 77.2% of the time (159 of 206). After all month-ends it was 75.9% (498 of 656).
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions · Weekly · 1971–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
−0.50
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
−0.52
Very strong reading
Aug 2026
−0.55
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
−0.54
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
−0.51
Very strong reading
May 2026
−0.51
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from nfci. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the NFCI?
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is published weekly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It combines 105 financial measures in three groups: risk (volatility and funding risk), credit (credit conditions) and leverage (debt and equity issuance).
The index is designed so that 0 represents average financial conditions historically. Negative values mean easier-than-average conditions (loose); positive values mean tighter-than-average conditions. The Chicago Fed re-estimates the whole index back to 1971 every week, so the history on this page is today's version, and past readings can differ from what was printed at the time.
How We Color-Code the NFCI
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −0.50
Very loose financial conditions — easy credit, low volatility; about 4 weeks in 10 since 1971 (39%)
−0.50 – 0.00
Slightly loose — an accommodative financial environment, about 3 weeks in 10 since 1971 (32%)
0.00 – 0.50
Near-average conditions — normal credit availability, about 1 week in 9 since 1971 (11%)
0.50 – 1.00
Tighter than average — credit tightening and stress emerging, about 1 week in 19 since 1971 (5%)
Above 1.00
Significantly tight — financial stress, about 1 week in 8 since 1971 (13%)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Nov 2008GFC peak stress
+3.11
The highest reading since October 1982, as credit markets froze. The series' record is 5.23, in July 1974.
Apr 2020COVID shock
+0.31
The 2020 high, reached after seven weeks of tightening from mid-February. On today's index it is far below the 2008 peak.
Jun 2021Post-COVID looseness
−0.70
The loosest reading since September 2014.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the 105 variables in the NFCI?
The 105 variables include short-term funding rates (interbank and repo rates), equity volatility (VIX) and credit spreads (investment grade and high yield). They also cover money market conditions, bank lending standards, and leverage measures such as margin debt and debt issuance. Together they give a comprehensive picture of financial system health.
How is NFCI different from the VIX?
VIX measures only equity market volatility. NFCI synthesizes 105 variables across credit, equity, funding, and leverage markets. NFCI gives a broader picture of system-wide financial health. VIX can be low while credit stress builds — NFCI would capture the credit stress even if VIX is calm.
How quickly does NFCI respond to events?
Quickly — it is published weekly and draws on daily financial market data. In 2020 the index rose from −0.54 in mid-February to +0.31 in early April, over seven weeks. Because the Chicago Fed re-estimates the whole history every week, those readings are today's version of the index.
What does a rising Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index mean for credit availability and economic growth?
A rising NFCI means financial conditions are tightening — credit is becoming more expensive and harder to obtain, risk appetite is declining, and leverage is falling. Tighter conditions have gone with weaker growth one to two quarters later, but only loosely: since 1971 the index's quarterly change correlates −0.20 with GDP growth two quarters on. A sustained positive reading has not on its own told when growth slows. Growth over the next two quarters was below its long-run median after 3 of the 7 times the index held above zero for two quarters — about the same as after any quarter.
How does the NFCI differ from other financial conditions measures like the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index?
The NFCI is constructed from 105 measures spanning three categories: risk (credit spreads, volatility), credit (borrowing rates, loan availability), and leverage (debt levels relative to assets). This breadth makes it more comprehensive than simpler indices that focus only on equity volatility or credit spreads. The NFCI also has a long history, back to 1971; on the site's data its link with later growth is real but weak. The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI) strips out the component explained by current economic conditions, isolating the portion of financial conditions that is tighter or looser than the economic fundamentals would predict.