Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Sep 23 · Updates: Quarterly (released ~12 weeks after quarter end)
QThe three bars show the last 3 quarters for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 0.0 pp YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 24th percentile — near historically low/favorable levels.
What this means right now: Between 5.70% and 5.90% is the second fifth of the history since 2005 — a light burden. On today's bands, that was the case in parts of 2018–19 and in most quarters since mid-2024.
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio · Quarterly · 2005–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q2 2026
5.83%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
5.87%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
5.92%
Healthy reading
Q3 2025
5.87%
Healthy reading
Q2 2025
5.83%
Healthy reading
Q1 2025
5.76%
Healthy reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from mortgage_debt_service. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Mortgage Debt Service?
The mortgage debt service ratio is the Federal Reserve's estimate of required mortgage payments (principal and interest) on outstanding household mortgage debt, as a percent of aggregate disposable personal income. It is the mortgage half of the household debt service ratio already on the heatmap (FRED: TDSP, shown as Debt Service Ratio); the other half is consumer debt.
It is a driver in USMacro's Housing Cycle, not a voter. The charter's census found that its movements run about twelve months ahead of single-family starts on the one full cycle of data available — the timing of a rate proxy, not of a sector stage. It also goes stale seven months after each quarterly print under the census's staleness rule. So it informs the backdrop (the household's capacity to carry a mortgage) and never casts a vote. In the Housing Cycle's driver strip its latest reading, 5.8%, sits at percentile 25 of its history since 2005 (0 is the lightest burden, 100 the heaviest).
The series begins in 2005 because the Federal Reserve rebuilt the methodology that year; the earlier series is on a different basis and the site does not splice them (the same ruling as for the total debt service ratio). Twenty-one years is one of the shortest histories on the heatmap, and the color bands are calibrated on that history alone.
How We Color-Code the Mortgage Debt Service
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 5.70%
The lightest mortgage burden — the bottom fifth of the history since 2005, seen on today's bands from mid-2020 to early 2024
5.70% – 5.90%
A light burden — the second fifth; on today's bands, parts of 2018–19 and most quarters since mid-2024
5.90% – 6.40%
Around the middle of the history since 2005; on today's bands, most quarters from 2014 to early 2020, and 2025 Q4
6.40% – 7.90%
A heavy burden — the fourth fifth; on today's bands, 2005–06 and 2010–13
Above 7.90%
The heaviest burdens — the top fifth; on today's bands, 2006 to 2010
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2007 Q4Bubble-era peak burden
8.95%
The highest reading in the series, 8.95% in Q4 2007, at the start of the 2007–09 recession. The ratio then fell for 13 years, to its low in Q1 2021, as debt was written down and rates fell.
2021 Q1Pandemic low
4.76%
The all-time low, on record-low mortgage rates and stimulus-boosted incomes. The ratio rose as rates doubled in 2022, from 5.43% in Q4 2021 to 5.62% a year later.
2010 Q1Post-crisis burden
8.14%
Still above 8% nine months after the recession ended, as incomes lagged and mortgage debt had not yet been worked down; it fell below 8% the next quarter.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this differ from the Debt Service Ratio already on the heatmap?
The total household debt service ratio (TDSP) adds consumer debt — auto loans, credit cards, student loans — to mortgages. This series is the mortgage component alone, the part that follows house prices and mortgage rates.
Why does the history start in 2005?
The Federal Reserve's current version of the series begins in 2005, after a change of method; it no longer publishes the earlier figures, which were on a different basis. USMacro does not splice the two, the same ruling applied to the total debt service ratio.
Why is it a driver and not a voter in the Housing Cycle?
The charter's census measured its timing against single-family starts and found a twelve-month lead on the one full cycle available — the signature of mortgage rates, which it tracks, rather than of a sector stage. It also fails the charter's 25-year history preference. Under the charter's staleness rule, a reading goes stale once it is more than six months past the start of its quarter — only weeks after it is published. The owner ruled it a driver: shown as a level, never voting.
How are the color thresholds set?
By a five-band quintile rule: the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles of the series' own history, rounded to a tenth of a percent and inverted because a lower burden is the favorable side. Today's color reads against the whole history, 2005 to today: the edges now are 5.70%, 5.90%, 6.40% and 7.90%. A past quarter's color — in the Time Machine, on the Housing Cycle's driver strip and in the monthly table — reads against the history up to that quarter, as it would have read then. So the edges move a little as data arrives. A color exists once the series has ten years of history (here from 2015). Nothing is tuned to the current reading. With only 21 years of history the middle bands are narrow (5.90% to 6.40%), and on today's bands the top band is the years 2006 to 2010.