Source: FRED: NEWORDER (US Census Bureau M3 Survey)
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 25 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 27
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 68th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Core capital goods orders are rising fast — up more than 1.5% on the month, as in about 1 month in 3 since 1992 (133 of 414). Orders and industrial production have moved together in the same months (a correlation of 0.54 on three-month changes, and 0.50 with the quarter's GDP growth) rather than one ahead of the other.
Core Capex Orders · Monthly · 1992–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Core Capex Orders — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
+1.6%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
+0.6%
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+1.7%
Very strong reading
May 2026
+1.9%
Very strong reading
Apr 2026
−0.6%
Concerning reading
Mar 2026
+3.8%
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from core_capex_mom_pct. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Core Capex?
Core Capital Goods Orders (FRED: NEWORDER) measures new orders placed with US manufacturers for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Leaving out defense spending and lumpy aircraft orders, the two most volatile categories, it shows private business investment. Reported monthly by the US Census Bureau, it is the measure read for what businesses are spending on machinery, computers, industrial equipment and other productive capacity. The related shipments series feeds the Bureau of Economic Analysis's estimate of business fixed investment in GDP.
Core capex orders are read as the measure of business investment plans: companies ordering more equipment expect demand. Runs of three straight monthly declines have been a mixed guide. On the figures first reported, the 14 such runs since 1992 came before a recession within a year twice (both ahead of 2001), four times with a recession already under way, and eight times with none. Industrial production was lower six months later after 8 of the 14. Revised data later created runs in 2007 and 2019 that preceded those recessions, but they were not there at the time.
How We Color-Code the Core Capex
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −1.5%
Sharp fall — below −1.5%, about 1 month in 4 since 1992 (94 of 414), only 14 of them inside a recession
−1.5% – −0.5%
Declining — between −1.5% and −0.5%, about 1 month in 8 since 1992 (52 of 414)
−0.5% – 0.5%
Flat — within half a percent of the month before, about 1 month in 6 since 1992 (72 of 414)
0.5% – 1.5%
Healthy growth — up 0.5% to 1.5%, about 1 month in 7 since 1992 (62 of 414)
Above 1.5%
Strong growth — up more than 1.5%, about 1 month in 3 since 1992 (133 of 414)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
April 2020COVID-19 shutdown
−9.3%
Businesses froze orders as demand collapsed. The month won the figures first reported as a 5.8% fall and later revised to 9.3%.
2021–2022Post-COVID capex boom
Above +1% in 9 of 24 months
Orders grew a mean 0.6% a month across 2021 and 2022, with 6 of the 24 months negative.
March 2026The largest rise since 2020
+3.8%
The largest monthly rise since June 2020, first published as +3.3%, in a run that took orders to a record dollar level by August 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do economists prefer core capex orders over the headline durable goods number?
The headline durable goods figure swings with aircraft orders — a single large order can move the month by several percentage points without any change in business investment. Core capex (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) removes aircraft and defense, leaving what private businesses spend on productive equipment. The Fed, Wall Street economists and the BEA all read this measure for business investment.
How does core capex relate to GDP and why does it matter for economic forecasting?
Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft — a related Census series this site does not hold — feed the BEA's estimate of business investment. On this site's data, a quarter's orders growth has moved with the same quarter's GDP growth (a correlation of 0.50 since 1992) and told little about the quarters after (0.09). Three straight monthly declines have not been a reliable warning. On the figures first reported, the 14 such runs since 1992 came before a recession within a year twice, with one already under way four times, and with none eight times.
What level of core capex growth is consistent with a healthy business investment cycle?
There is no level the record proves healthy. Outside recessions the series has grown a median 0.4% a month since 1992, about 5% a year, but it is noisy. Only 35 of 414 months landed between +0.3% and +0.8%, while 133 rose more than 1.5% and 94 fell more than 1.5%. Runs of negative months have meant businesses deferring orders; what followed them is set out above.
How quickly does core capex respond to changes in Federal Reserve interest rates?
Business investment in equipment is financed, so borrowing costs matter to it. On this site's data, after the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, core orders kept rising for two quarters (+1.0% to September 2022) and then fell 4.0% over the next six months. The site holds no general measure of how quickly orders answer a rate change.
What is the difference between core capex orders and core capex shipments, and which is more important?
Orders measure demand placed in the month; shipments measure goods delivered. The Census Bureau publishes both in the same release, and this site holds orders only. On this site's data a quarter's orders growth has moved with the same quarter's GDP growth (a correlation of 0.50) rather than ahead of it.