Source: US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 17 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 20
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 2.6% MoM↓ 1.2% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 31st percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Housing starts are moderate — between 1,100K and 1,300K, about 1 month in 6 since 1959 (129 of 812), below the pre-2008 average of about 1,550K. Of those months, 21 fell inside a recession.
Housing Starts · Monthly · 1959–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Housing Starts — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
1275K
Within normal range
Jul 2026
1309K
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
1439K
Healthy reading
May 2026
1182K
Within normal range
Apr 2026
1414K
Healthy reading
Mar 2026
1522K
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from housing_starts. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Housing Starts?
Housing starts measures the number of new privately-owned housing units on which construction began during the month. It is reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in thousands of units.
Starts have turned down before construction employment at every peak since 1972, but the gap has run from three months (2006) to more than two years (1986 and 2022). The record gives no fixed lag.
How We Color-Code the Housing Starts
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 900K
Very weak — below 900K. Reached only inside the 1974–75, 1981–82, 1990–91 and 2008–09 recessions, through the slow recovery of 2009–2015, and once in 1966
900K – 1,100K
Weak construction — 900K to 1,100K, about 1 month in 11 since 1959 (74 of 812); 29 of those months fell inside a recession
1,100K – 1,300K
Moderate construction — 1,100K to 1,300K, about 1 month in 6 since 1959 (129 of 812), below the pre-2008 average of about 1,550K
1,300K – 1,500K
Healthy construction — 1,300K to 1,500K, more than 1 month in 5 since 1959 (182 of 812)
Above 1,500K
Strong construction — above 1,500K, the most common reading: about 4 months in 10 since 1959 (356 of 812)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jan 2006Housing bubble peak
2273K
The peak of the housing boom. Starts had more than halved by the time the 2008–09 recession began, and fell 79% to their April 2009 low.
Apr 2009GFC trough
478K
The lowest reading on the record, which begins in 1959. Starts did not reach 1,500K again until December 2019.
Apr 2022Pandemic building boom peak
1807K
The high of the pandemic building boom (March 2022 on the figures first reported, at 1,793K). It came as the 30-year mortgage rate was climbing from 3.4% in January toward 6.9% in October 2022.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between housing starts and building permits?
Building permits are issued before construction begins, so they are the earlier stage of the same projects. Month to month the two move together (a correlation of 0.40 in the same month, 0.16 a month later), and at turning points permits ran one to four months ahead in 2005, 2009 and 2022 but not in 1972 or 1978.
What drives housing starts?
The main drivers are mortgage rates, home prices, household formation, builder confidence and land and material costs. Rising mortgage rates are the biggest single brake: when the 30-year rate was up a point or more on the year, starts were down on the year in 84 of 105 months since 1972.
Why are housing starts considered a leading economic indicator?
Starts are groundbreakings — a commitment of capital and labor that plays out over the following months in construction wages, material purchases and, once the home is sold, appliance and furniture spending. Starts peaked between 2 and 35 months before each of the nine recessions since 1960, and were at least a fifth below that peak when seven of them began. The lead is real; its length is not fixed, and the site does not use it to call turns. The Housing Cycle page keeps the sector's own record. Single-family permits fell 15% from their peak 7 times since 1960, by the Housing Cycle's count. A recession followed within 24 months after 4 of them, and none after 3.
What is the difference between single-family and multi-family housing starts, and which is more economically significant?
Single-family starts (detached homes) carry more labor, materials and follow-on spending per unit. Multi-family starts (apartment buildings) carry less per unit. Their share of total starts rose from 19% in 2010 to 36% in 2015 and has run between 26% and 35% since — above the 20% of the 2000s, about the same as the late 1980s. For the business cycle the single-family series is the steadier read, because multi-family can swing on a few large projects. The total series tracked here blends both.
How do housing starts relate to building permits, and which leads which?
Building permits come before groundbreaking, so they are the earlier stage of the same projects. In the monthly data the two move together, and at the turns of 2005, 2009 and 2022 permits ran one to four months ahead. A gap between high permits and lagging starts shows projects authorized but not yet begun; the site holds no measure of why.