Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED
Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 16 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 17
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 43rd percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Industrial output is growing at a healthy pace — 2% to 4% above a year earlier, about 1 month in 5 since 1950 (189 of 921). Only 8 of those months fell inside a recession.
REVISION PROFILEIndustrial production (the month's change, in per cent): how the first estimate compared with the value three years later. The economy is in an Expansion now (September 2026). Of the 389 times it was first reported during an Expansion, the middle move was −0.02, with half landing between −0.24 and +0.24. It was revised up 48% of the time — 167 of the 351 that moved at all. Across the whole record since 1928, of the 1149 first estimates, 514 were later revised up, 475 down and 160 not at all; the middle move was +0.00. Revisions Ledger →
Industrial Production · Monthly · 1919–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Industrial Production — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+2.2% YoY
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
+1.6% YoY
Within normal range
Jul 2026
+1.3% YoY
Within normal range
Jun 2026
+1.5% YoY
Within normal range
May 2026
+1.7% YoY
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+1.4% YoY
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from industrial_production_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Industrial Production?
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. It is indexed to 2017=100.
The Federal Reserve publishes this index monthly. It is one of the monthly series the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) weighs when it dates US recessions. The others are nonfarm payrolls, real personal income, real personal consumption and wholesale-retail sales.
How We Color-Code the Industrial Production
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −3.0%
Sharp contraction — output more than 3% below a year earlier. About 1 month in 8 since 1950 (109 of 921), and about 5 in 10 of those months fell inside a recession (59 of 109)
−3.0% – 0.0%
Industrial contraction — output below a year earlier, about 1 month in 8 since 1950 (119 of 921). Output has fallen in every recession since 1950, but on the figures first reported the fall came after the recession began in 10 of the 11
0.0% – 2.0%
Sluggish growth — output up less than 2% on the year, about 1 month in 6 since 1950 (155 of 921)
2.0% – 4.0%
Healthy growth — output up 2% to 4% on the year, about 1 month in 5 since 1950 (189 of 921)
Above 4.0%
Strong expansion — output up more than 4% on the year, the most common reading: about 4 months in 10 since 1950 (349 of 921), only 4 of them inside a recession
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Feb 1946Post-WWII demobilization
−33.7%
The deepest fall on the record, as wartime production wound down.
Feb 1984Reagan recovery peak
+12.2%
The strongest year-on-year growth of the 1980s, as the economy came out of the 1981–82 recession.
Jun 2009GFC trough
−15.3%
The deepest fall since 1946 outside the 2020 shutdown.
Dec 20152015–16 industrial recession
−4.5%
A mid-cycle industrial downturn with no recession behind it.
Apr 2020COVID shutdown
−17.3%
The sharpest fall since 1946, as factories shut in the first weeks of the pandemic.
Apr 2021Post-COVID rebound peak
+16.6%
The rebound a year after the shutdown — growth measured against the depressed April 2020 base.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the NBER use industrial production?
The NBER uses industrial production because it measures real output rather than prices or sentiment: the goods actually made each month. It has not been an early warning. Output has fallen on the year in every recession since 1950, usually a few months after it began, and on the figures first reported 15 of the 29 falls since 1950 came with no recession within a year. It confirms a downturn already visible elsewhere more than it predicts one.
Why look at YoY % instead of the index level?
The Federal Reserve publishes the index with 2017 = 100, so the level rises as the economy grows. The year-over-year change removes that drift and shows whether output is growing or shrinking now. Zero is the line: above it, goods output is growing; below it, shrinking.
What is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production index and what does it actually measure?
The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production index measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities, reported monthly. Unlike GDP, which measures spending, it measures physical output. Its year-over-year change is one of the series the NBER weighs when dating recessions.
How does industrial production relate to the ISM Manufacturing PMI?
The ISM survey asks purchasing managers whether conditions improved; industrial production measures what was made. They describe the same sector from two sides. This site's ISM record begins in June 2026, so it cannot yet say which moves first.