Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 10 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 13
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 62nd percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Business loan growth is strong — companies are borrowing to invest, expand, and grow. This reflects high corporate confidence and a healthy investment outlook. Strong business investment drives employment, productivity, and eventually consumer income growth.
Business Loans · Monthly · 1948–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Business Loans — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+10.0%
Very strong reading
Aug 2026
+9.5%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
+8.3%
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
+8.2%
Very strong reading
May 2026
+8.0%
Very strong reading
Apr 2026
+7.5%
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Business Loans YoY?
Business loan growth measures the year-over-year change in total commercial and industrial (C&I) loans outstanding at US commercial banks. Business borrowing is a direct measure of corporate confidence and investment appetite — when companies are growing, expanding operations, or investing in new capacity, they borrow more. When they are cautious about the economic outlook or finding credit expensive, loan growth slows or turns negative.
Business loan growth is also a measure of bank credit availability — banks lend more when they are well-capitalized, confident in economic conditions, and compete for business borrowers. When banks tighten standards (typically during economic stress or regulatory pressure), business loan growth slows even if demand exists. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) measures bank lending standards separately, providing context for interpreting loan growth trends.
How We Color-Code the Business Loans YoY
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −3.0%
Sharp decline — businesses deleveraging or credit tight; growth below −3% has come during or after recessions (1949–50, 1954, 1975–76, 1991–93, 2001–04, 2009–11) and with none (2021–22 and 2025)
Slow growth — businesses cautious but borrowing slightly
3.0% – 8.0%
Healthy growth — business confidence and investment expanding
Above 8.0%
Strong business borrowing — corporate investment and expansion robust; 486 of 945 months since 1948
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2022Post-PPP Rebound
Business loan growth: +14.6% YoY (Nov 2022)
Loan growth swung from −16.1% in 2021, as pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program loans ran off, to +14.6% in November 2022 — the strongest growth since the 2020 draw-downs (through September 2026).
2009–2010Financial Crisis Credit Freeze
Business loans: −20.2% YoY (Feb 2010)
The deepest contraction in business lending in the series (since 1948), −20.2% in February 2010 — banks stopped lending and companies stopped borrowing as both parties feared catastrophic economic collapse. Loan growth stayed negative from May 2009 to March 2011.
2020COVID Emergency Draw-Downs
Business loans: +30.1% YoY (May 2020, credit line draws)
Companies drew on existing credit lines for emergency liquidity at the start of COVID — a panic-driven surge rather than true investment confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are C&I loans and who takes them out?
Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans are business loans for working capital, equipment purchase, expansion, and other operational purposes. Borrowers range from small businesses (equipment financing, working capital lines) to large corporations (revolving credit facilities, term loans). Unlike commercial real estate loans, C&I loans are used for operating business purposes rather than property purchase.
Why did business loans surge in early 2020?
The COVID-19 crisis set off a corporate "dash for cash": in March 2020 companies drew down their bank credit lines to hold emergency cash. From April, Paycheck Protection Program loans, which banks book as business loans, added to the total. Business loans outstanding rose by more than a quarter between February and May 2020. Yearly growth reached 30.1% in May, the fastest since 1951. It was borrowing out of fear, not confidence, and it reversed within a year: growth turned negative in April 2021.
What is the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey and why does it matter?
The SLOOS is a quarterly Fed survey of senior lending officers at major banks about whether they are tightening or loosening credit standards. When banks tighten standards, business loan growth has usually slowed. In 28 of the 32 surveys since 1990 in which the net share of banks tightening was above 20%, growth was lower a year later — almost 9 in 10. Some firms cannot borrow even when they want to, but the site holds no measure of loan demand to show how many. The SLOOS provides context for whether loan growth reflects supply (bank willingness to lend) or demand (business desire to borrow).
What does a sharp contraction in commercial and industrial loan growth signal about recession risk?
In the record, business loan growth has turned negative during or after recessions rather than before them. Between 1948 and 2025 growth dipped below zero 10 times. 5 of those dips began inside a recession, and 3 within a year after one ended. Two came with no recession near them as of September 2026, in 2023–24 and 2025. Only one of the twelve recessions since 1948 had a dip in the two years before it (1960). When businesses stop borrowing they are cutting back on inventory financing, capital expenditure, and expansion plans — but this series lags the cycle rather than leading it.
How do bank lending standards relate to the business loan growth rate tracked here?
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) measures whether banks are tightening or loosening lending standards for commercial loans. When standards tighten — typically after a rate hiking cycle or during financial stress — loan growth slows as fewer businesses qualify. The loan growth tracked here is the downstream result of what SLOOS measures upstream. SLOOS reports how willing banks are to lend; this series shows the lending that actually took place, which reflects both that willingness and how much businesses wanted to borrow.