Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 17 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 20
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 1.2% MoM↓ 3.4% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 59th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Single-family homes under construction are in the middle fifth of the history — between 530K and 590K, around the long-run median.
Single-Family Homes Under Construction · Monthly · 1970–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Single-Family Homes Under Construction — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
589K
Within normal range
Jul 2026
582K
Within normal range
Jun 2026
588K
Within normal range
May 2026
589K
Within normal range
Apr 2026
591K
Healthy reading
Mar 2026
591K
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from sf_under_construction. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the SF Under Construction?
This series counts the new privately-owned single-family homes that have been started but not yet completed at the end of each month — the stock of work in progress, in thousands of units, seasonally adjusted. It is a stock, not a flow: starts add to it, completions drain it, and its level is the amount of single-family construction physically under way.
Because it accumulates starts over the months a house takes to build, it moves more smoothly than starts and turns a few months later. Its 12-month change correlates most with single-family starts at a lag of 4 months. That places it in the Housing Cycle's coincident stage, beside residential construction spending and single-family completions.
The series was surfaced by the Housing Cycle's exhaustive sweep of FRED's housing category (2,918 national series with 20 or more years of history). It was the one series that met every roster requirement — a distinct mechanism, single-family, seasonally adjusted, 56 years of history — that the original candidate list had missed.
How We Color-Code the SF Under Construction
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 440K
Bottom quintile — the pipeline at deep-downturn levels
440K – 530K
Second quintile — a thin pipeline
530K – 590K
Middle quintile — around the long-run median
590K – 680K
Fourth quintile — strong work in progress
Above 680K
Top quintile of the 1970–2026 history — a full pipeline
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Feb 2006Housing bubble peak
990K
The all-time high, 990K in February 2006; the pipeline shrank by about 75% over the next 5 years
Oct 2011Post-crisis trough
235K
The all-time low, 235K in October 2011, 31 months after starts bottomed — the stock lags the flow
Apr 2022Pandemic pipeline peak
827K
The highest since 2006 as supply-chain delays held homes in progress; it fell as completions caught up and starts slowed
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between starts and units under construction?
Starts are a flow — homes on which construction began this month. Units under construction are a stock — every home started but not yet completed as of month end. The stock rises when starts outrun completions and falls when completions catch up, which is why it turns a few months after starts.
How are the color thresholds set?
By a five-band quintile rule: the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles of the series' own history, rounded to the nearest 10K. Today's color reads against the whole history, 1970 to today: the edges now are 440K, 530K, 590K and 680K. A past month's color — in the Time Machine and in the monthly table — reads against the history up to that month, as it would have read then, so the edges move a little as data arrives. A color exists once the series has ten years of history (here from 1980). Nothing is tuned to the current reading.
Why did the pipeline stay so high in 2021–22?
Supply-chain and labor shortages lengthened build times, so homes started in the 2020–21 boom stayed under construction longer than usual. The stock peaked in April 2022 at 827K even as starts had already begun falling — a completions backlog, not new demand.
What role does this series play in the Housing Cycle?
It is one of the three coincident-stage members (with residential construction spending and single-family completions). Its stage was assigned by data: its 12-month change correlates most with single-family starts 4 months later, inside the charter's coincident band of one to 6 months.