Source: Derived on-site from the Buffett indicator series (expanding OLS, point-in-time)
Data through: October 2026 · updated Oct 1 · Updates: Monthly (current month refreshed nightly)
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 90th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: The Buffett indicator is one to two standard deviations above its own trend — expensive against everything in its history to this point. This describes where the market sits; it is not a forecast.
Buffett indicator: sigma vs trend · Monthly · 1999–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Buffett indicator: sigma vs trend — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
+1.3σ
Concerning reading
Sep 2026
+1.3σ
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
+1.4σ
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
+1.3σ
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
+1.4σ
Concerning reading
May 2026
+1.5σ
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from buffett_trend_deviation. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Buffett indicator sigma vs trend?
How unusual today's Buffett indicator is against its own history. A trend line is fitted through every reading up to each month. The reading is how far the latest value sits above or below that line, in standard deviations — Grantham's yardstick, with two standard deviations above trend his bubble line. Each month uses only the data available then, so past readings never change. It differs from the percentile on the Valuations page, which ranks a reading against all history: the trend allows for the indicator's upward drift since 1989. The first 24 months after 1999 are unreliable while the trend settles. See Valuations for the record of expensive and cheap periods on the percentile basis.
How We Color-Code the Buffett indicator sigma vs trend
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −2.0σ
Deeply below its own trend — as cheap as this measure gets; both of the series' big lows (2002, 2009) were here
−2.0σ – −1.0σ
Below its own trend — the cheap side of its history; not a warning
−1.0σ – 1.0σ
Near its own trend — the normal range, holding 56% of its months
1.0σ – 2.0σ
Well above its own trend — expensive by its own history, one to two standard deviations up; where 1999–2000, 2021 and 19 of the 24 months since November 2024 have sat
Above 2.0σ
Grantham's bubble line — this series has never ended a month above it
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 2021Post-COVID liquidity peak
+1.8σ
The highest reading outside the series' unreliable first two years, set in June 2021 as post-COVID money flooded into markets. The S&P 500 peaked the following January and fell 25% into October 2022. Even then the series stayed under Grantham's +2σ bubble line; it has never ended a month above it.
Sep 2002Dot-com bust trough
−3.8σ
The lowest reading in the series, at the bottom of the 2000–2002 bear market: the market's value had fallen far below its own trend. On this measure, deeply cheap.
Feb 2009Financial-crisis trough
−3.6σ
The second-lowest reading, the month before the March 2009 bottom. Both of the series' deep lows came at major market bottoms — the only 2 it has seen.