Data through: Nov 6, 2026 · updated Nov 7 · Updates: Daily (market days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 32nd percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: The yield curve is flat — between 0 and 0.5 points, as in about 1 month in 4 since 1976 (146 of 605). A flat curve on its own has not meant a slowdown: growth over the following year averaged 3.0% after these months, about the 2.8% for all months.
Yield Curve (10yr – 2yr Spread) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
0.35%
Within normal range
Oct 2026
0.38%
Within normal range
Sep 2026
0.41%
Within normal range
Aug 2026
0.41%
Within normal range
Jul 2026
0.47%
Within normal range
Jun 2026
0.30%
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Yield Curve?
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year US Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield. A positive spread (10yr > 2yr) is "normal" — investors demand higher yield for lending money for longer. A negative spread (10yr < 2yr), called an "inverted yield curve," means short-term rates exceed long-term rates — an abnormal condition, and one that most recessions since the 1970s have followed. The record below counts which inversions were followed by one and which were not.
When the Fed raises short-term rates aggressively (pushing 2yr yields up) while long-term inflation expectations fall (keeping 10yr yields down), the curve inverts. An inversion means the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts ahead — often because it expects the economy to slow. How long each inversion ran before a recession, if one came, is in the record below.
The Tested Record
8 of 11 inversions since 1976 were followed by a recession within 18 months, against 21% of all months; the three that were not came in 1998, 2005–06 and 2022–24. Read at each month's last close, it did not invert before the recession that began in Feb 2020. The leads ran from 7 to 18 months.
The test, and the 3-month to 10-year curve tested the same way, are on the yield curve page.
How We Color-Code the Yield Curve
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −0.50%
Deeply inverted — depth has not decided the outcome: the deepest inversion from 1981 to September 2026 (2022–24) was not followed by a recession
−0.50% – 0.00%
Slightly inverted — the curve is inverted; see the record below for what has followed
0.00% – 0.50%
Flat — between 0 and 0.5 points, about 1 month in 4 since 1976 (146 of 605). On its own it has not meant a slowdown: growth over the following year averaged 3.0%, about the 2.8% for all months
0.50% – 1.50%
Normal — the curve's most common state, about 1 month in 3 since 1976 (221 of 605). Growth over the following year averaged 3.3% after these months through 2024, the highest of the bands
1.50% or above
Steep — an early-cycle reading, not a sign of strength: about half of these months came within two years of a recession's end (68 of 144), and growth over the following year averaged 2.6%, below the 2.8% for all months
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2022-2023Deepest Inversion Since 1981
−1.08%
The deepest inversion since 1981, reached in July 2023. No recession followed as NBER has dated them — one of the inversions the record below counts as not followed by one.
2006-2007Pre-Financial Crisis Inversion
−0.19%
The curve first closed below zero in December 2005 — a three-month inversion the record below counts as a false alarm. It inverted again from June 2006 and was deepest in November 2006. The NBER peak came in December 2007, 18 months after the June 2006 inversion.
2021Post-COVID Steepening
1.59%
The steepest curve since July 2015, reached in March 2021 — as the economy reopened and before the inflation surge brought the Fed's hikes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the yield curve predicted every US recession?
Not every one, and not without false alarms. Read at each month's last close, the 10-year minus 2-year curve inverted before every recession since 1976 but one, the Feb 2020 recession. And 3 of its 11 inversions were not followed by a recession within 18 months. Those were Jun 1998, Dec 2005 to Feb 2006, and Jul 2022 to Jul 2024. The record on this page counts both.
Why has an inverted yield curve come before most recessions?
When the Fed raises short-term rates aggressively to fight inflation, 2-year yields rise sharply. Long-term yields (10-year) are anchored by long-term growth and inflation expectations, which fall as the market anticipates the Fed will eventually cut rates as the economy slows. The inversion shows the market pricing in a slowdown, and that expectation itself can feed one: banks lend less when borrowing short at high rates and lending long at lower rates.
Is the yield curve still reliable, or have "this time it's different" arguments become credible?
The "this time it's different" argument appears at every inversion. The 2022–24 inversion was not followed by a recession within 18 months as NBER has dated them, so the record below counts it as a false alarm. The record stands at 8 of 11 inversions since 1976 followed by a recession — strong, not perfect, and it has never said when.
What happens to bonds when the yield curve steepens after inversion?
When the curve steepens back above zero, the recession has often still been ahead. In 3 of the 5 recessions from 1976 to 2020 that an inversion preceded (1990, 2001 and 2007), the recession began 5 to 11 months after the curve's last inverted month. In 1980 and 1981 it began while the curve was still inverted. The steepening comes as the Fed cuts and short rates fall faster than long ones. The market has split: the 2007–09 fall in the S&P 500 (57%) began after the curve had steepened, the 2000–02 fall (49%) while it was still inverted.
What does a steep yield curve mean for bank stocks?
Banks profit by borrowing at short-term rates (deposits and interbank lending) and lending at long-term rates (mortgages and business loans). A steep yield curve (wide spread) means banks earn large net interest margins. An inverted curve means banks earn negative or minimal margins, which reduces lending and profits. The site holds no bank-stock series, so that link is the mechanism, not a measured record.