Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 14 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 10
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 0.7% MoM
Historical context: Currently in the 67th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Inflation is elevated — CPI is between 3.5% and 5%, about 1 month in 6 since 1948 (152 of 944). A year later the Fed's rate was lower slightly more often than higher (77 against 67), and the S&P 500 was higher about 2 times in 3 (104 of 149).
Consumer Price Index (CPI) · Monthly · 1947–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
3.72% YoY
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
3.35% YoY
Within normal range
Jul 2026
3.30% YoY
Within normal range
Jun 2026
3.46% YoY
Within normal range
May 2026
4.17% YoY
Concerning reading
Apr 2026
3.78% YoY
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the CPI?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the year-over-year change in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The basket covers food, energy, housing, healthcare, transportation and education. It is the most widely followed inflation measure in the United States. The Fed's 2% target is set on PCE, and CPI is read alongside it.
CPI reaches markets through two channels. Inflation eats into the real return on bonds and savings. And the Fed sets interest rates with inflation in view, so CPI shapes borrowing costs for households and businesses. The bands below show what followed each level on the site's data since 1948.
How We Color-Code the CPI
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −0.50%
Deflation — prices more than 0.5% below a year earlier. Rare: 24 months since 1948, in 1949–50, 1954–55 and 2009
−0.50% – 0.00%
Mild deflation — prices slightly below a year earlier. Rare: 16 months since 1948, in 1949–50, 1954–55, 2008–09 and 2015
0.00% – 0.50%
Near zero — prices about flat, well below the Fed's 2% target. Uncommon: 24 months since 1948
0.50% – 1.00%
Low inflation — 0.5% to 1%, below the Fed's target. Uncommon: 39 months since 1948, most recently in 2013–16 and 2020
1.00% – 2.00%
At or just below the Fed's 2% target — about 1 month in 5 since 1948 (198 of 944)
2.00% – 2.50%
Near target — 2% to 2.5%; 83 months since 1948
2.50% – 3.50%
Moderately above target — 2.5% to 3.5%, the most common band: roughly 1 month in 4 since 1948 (210 of 944)
3.50% – 5.00%
Elevated — 3.5% to 5%, about 1 month in 6 since 1948 (152 of 944)
Above 5.00%
High inflation — above 5%, about 1 month in 5 since 1948 (198 of 944), mostly the 1970s to early 1980s and 2021–23
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 2022Post-COVID Inflation Peak
8.98% YoY
The highest US inflation since November 1981. The Fed answered with its fastest rate rises since 1981, and the S&P 500 fell 25% from its January 2022 high to its October low.
Mar 2015Deflation Scare
−0.02% YoY
A brief dip below zero: four months, January to April 2015, the mildest deflation on the site's data (2009's ran nine months, to −2.0%). The Fed kept its rate near 0.1% until December 2015, and the S&P 500 was about flat a year after this reading came out (−0.3%).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Federal Reserve's inflation target and why 2%?
The Fed's official target is 2% annual inflation as measured by PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), though CPI is closely watched as a related measure. The 2% target provides a buffer against deflation (which can be economically devastating), allows for relative price adjustments across the economy, and gives the Fed room to cut rates during downturns.
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Core CPI excludes food and energy prices, which are volatile and often driven by supply shocks outside the Fed's control. Core CPI is steadier, and since 1984 it has been a slightly better guide to where headline inflation stood a year later. On average core has missed that figure by about 1.1 points; headline itself has missed by about 1.3. The Fed's target is headline PCE inflation, and it watches core PCE as a guide to the trend; CPI arrives earlier in the month and is read alongside. USMacro tracks headline CPI (including food and energy) for the broadest inflation picture.
Why did inflation spike so dramatically in 2021-2022?
Several things happened at once. Government stimulus lifted demand while supply chains were badly disrupted. The housing market surged as remote work changed where people wanted to live. Energy prices jumped as the economy reopened, and labor shortages pushed wages higher. The combination was historically unusual.
How does high CPI affect stock prices?
High CPI reaches stocks in two ways. Directly, inflation erodes the real value of future corporate earnings. Indirectly, the Fed raises rates to fight inflation, which raises the discount rate on future earnings and makes bonds more competitive with stocks. In 2022 the second did most of the work, on the site's data. From December 2021 to September 2022 the S&P 500 fell 18% while its earnings fell only 5%: the price paid per dollar of earnings went from 23.6 to 20.6. By December 2022 earnings had fallen 13% and that multiple had recovered to 22.6.
What has happened to markets after CPI peaked?
Take a peak as confirmed when a reading comes in a full point below the past year's high, with that high at 4% or more. The 2022 case, for the S&P 500: after the June 2022 reading came out on July 13, 2022, the index fell a further 5.9% to its October 12 low. A year after that release it stood 18.6% higher.