Every indicator on USMacro comes from a publicly available, authoritative source.
| Indicator | Section | Source | FRED Series | Updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 RSI | Technical | S&P 500 price data via market data feed | N/A — market data | Daily, after market close |
| Nasdaq 100 RSI | Technical | Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) price data via market data feed | N/A — market data | Daily, after market close |
| VIX — Volatility Index | Technical | CBOE via FRED (St. Louis Federal Reserve) | VIXCLS | Daily, market days only |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | Macro Risk | Yahoo Finance: DX-Y.NYB (ICE Futures) | N/A | Daily (market days) |
| Gold Price | Macro Risk | Yahoo Finance: GC=F (COMEX gold futures) | N/A | Daily (market days) |
| WTI Crude Oil | Macro Risk | Yahoo Finance: CL=F (NYMEX WTI futures); FRED: WTISPLC (monthly spot) | WTISPLC | Daily (market days) |
| Broad USD Index (DTWEXBGS) | Macro Risk | FRED: DTWEXBGS (Federal Reserve) | DTWEXBGS | Daily |
| OFR FSI — Emerging Markets | Macro Risk | Office of Financial Research (OFR Financial Stress Index — Emerging Markets) | N/A (OFR proprietary series) | Daily (business days) |
| OFR Financial Stress Index | Macro Risk | Office of Financial Research (OFR Financial Stress Index) | N/A (OFR proprietary series) | Daily (business days) |
| OFR FSI — Credit Pillar | Macro Risk | Office of Financial Research (OFR FSI — Credit pillar) | N/A (OFR proprietary series) | Daily (business days) |
| Copper Price (Global) | Macro Risk | FRED: PCOPPUSDM (International Monetary Fund) | PCOPPUSDM | Monthly (IMF commodity price release) |
| Fed Balance Sheet | Monetary & Liquidity | FRED: WALCL (Federal Reserve H.4.1 release) | WALCL | Weekly (Thursday, for prior Wednesday) |
| Money Market Fund Assets | Monetary & Liquidity | FRED: WRMFNS (ICI / Federal Reserve H.6 release) | WRMFNS | Weekly (Ending Monday) |
| Real 5-Year Yield (TIPS) | Monetary & Liquidity | FRED: DFII5 (US Treasury via Federal Reserve H.15) | DFII5 | Daily (business days) |
| 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) | T5YIE | Daily (market trading days) |
| 10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | T10YIE | Daily (market trading days) |
| 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: T5YIFR (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | T5YIFR | Daily (business days) |
| Chicago Fed Financial Conditions | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | NFCI | Weekly (released every Wednesday for prior week) |
| Bank Lending Standards (SLOOS) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DRTSCILM (Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey) | DRTSCILM | Quarterly (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct) |
| TED Spread (SOFR) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: SOFR, DTB3 (Computed: SOFR minus 3-Month T-Bill) | SOFR, DTB3 | Daily |
| Baa–10yr Treasury Spread | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: BAA10Y (Moody's / Federal Reserve) | BAA10Y | Daily |
| 90-Day AA CP Rate (Financial) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DCPF3M (Federal Reserve) | DCPF3M | Daily |
| CP–Tbill Spread (3-Month) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DCPF3M, DTB3 (Computed: 90-day AA Financial CP minus 3-month T-Bill) | DCPF3M, DTB3 | Daily |
| CP Financial–Nonfinancial Spread (3-Month) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DCPF3M, DCPN3M (Computed: financial minus nonfinancial CP) | DCPF3M, DCPN3M | Daily (business days; published for dates when both legs trade) |
| Delinquency Rate on Business Loans | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DRBLACBS (Federal Reserve) | DRBLACBS | Quarterly |
| Charge-Off Rate on Business Loans | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: CORBLACBS (Federal Reserve) | CORBLACBS | Quarterly |
| Excess Bond Premium | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Board (Gilchrist-Zakrajšek) | N/A (Federal Reserve proprietary series) | Monthly |
| S&P 500 P/E (TTM) | Fundamental | multpl.com (S&P 500 earnings data) | N/A — sourced from multpl.com | Daily (price), Quarterly (earnings) |
| Shiller CAPE Ratio | Fundamental | Robert Shiller / Yale University (public dataset) | N/A — sourced from Shiller dataset via multpl.com | Monthly |
| Buffett Indicator | Fundamental | Wilshire 5000 (continued on the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index since Jul 2026) / BEA GDP via FRED | ^DWCF × splice factor (Wilshire 5000 continuity) / GDP | Daily (market cap), Quarterly (GDP) |
| CAPE: sigma vs trend | Fundamental | Derived on-site from the Shiller CAPE series (expanding OLS, point-in-time) | N/A — derived from shiller_cape | Monthly (current month refreshed nightly) |
| Buffett indicator: sigma vs trend | Fundamental | Derived on-site from the Buffett indicator series (expanding OLS, point-in-time) | N/A — derived from buffett_indicator | Monthly (current month refreshed nightly) |
| Berkshire Hathaway Cash Reserves | Fundamental | Berkshire Hathaway SEC filings (10-Q / 10-K) | N/A — sourced from SEC EDGAR | Quarterly (6-8 week lag) |
| Household Equity Allocation | Fundamental | Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1 Release) | Calculated from BOGZ1FL153064476Q and related series | Quarterly (10-12 week lag) |
| Household Net Worth | Fundamental | Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1 Release) | BOGZ1FL192090005Q | Quarterly (10-12 week lag) |
| HY Credit Spreads | Fundamental | ICE BofA via Federal Reserve (FRED) | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Daily (business days) |
| IG Credit Spreads | Fundamental | ICE BofA via Federal Reserve (FRED) | BAMLC0A0CM | Daily (business days) |
| GDP (Annualized) | Economic | Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED | A191RL1Q225SBEA | Quarterly (advance estimate ~30 days after quarter end) |
| GDI (Annualized) | Economic | BEA via FRED (GDI, nominal level; growth computed) | GDI (computed q/q SAAR) | Quarterly (with the second GDP estimate) |
| GDPNow Nowcast (Current Quarter) | Economic | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | GDPNOW (Atlanta Fed) | 2-3 times per week during active data periods |
| OECD Leading Indicator (US) | Economic | OECD (Data Explorer, SDMX API) | USALOLITOAASTSAM | Monthly (about 6 weeks after the reference month) |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI® | Economic | Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) | N/A — licensed directly from ISM® | Monthly (first business day of month) |
| ISM Services PMI® | Economic | Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) | N/A — licensed directly from ISM® | Monthly (third business day of month) |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Economic | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | CPIAUCSL | Monthly (released ~2 weeks after month end) |
| Producer Price Index (PPI) | Economic | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | PPIACO | Monthly (released ~2 weeks after month end) |
| Core PCE Inflation | Economic | FRED: PCEPILFE (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | PCEPILFE | Monthly (~4 weeks after the reference month, alongside BEA Personal Income) |
| Median CPI | Economic | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland via FRED | MEDCPIM094SFRBCLE | Monthly (released with CPI, ~2 weeks after month-end) |
| Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation | Economic | FRED: PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) | PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL | Monthly (with the PCE release, ~4 weeks after month-end) |
| Sticky Price CPI | Economic | FRED: CORESTICKM159SFRBATL (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) | CORESTICKM159SFRBATL | Monthly (with the CPI release) |
| UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations | Economic | University of Michigan Survey of Consumers | N/A | Monthly (preliminary mid-month, final end-of-month) |
| Core Capex Orders | Economic | FRED: NEWORDER (US Census Bureau M3 Survey) | NEWORDER | Monthly (approximately 4 weeks after the reference month, same release as Durable Goods Orders) |
| Federal Funds Rate | Economic | Federal Reserve via FRED | FEDFUNDS | Monthly (updated after each FOMC meeting or daily effective rate) |
| Yield Curve (10yr – 2yr Spread) | Economic | US Treasury / Federal Reserve via FRED | T10Y2Y | Daily (market days) |
| Cass Freight Index | Economic | Cass Information Systems | FRGSHPUSM649NCIS (FRED) | Monthly |
| Heavy Truck Sales | Economic | Bureau of Economic Analysis / Ward's Automotive via FRED | HTRUCKSSAAR | Monthly |
| Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) | Economic | US Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey | RSXFS | Monthly (released ~2 weeks after reference month) |
| Real Retail Sales | Economic | Census Bureau / BLS (real series) via FRED | RRSFS | Monthly (released with the retail sales advance report, ~2 weeks after month-end; real version updates when CPI is also available) |
| Industrial Production | Economic | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | INDPRO | Monthly (released ~2 weeks after reference month) |
| Real Personal Income | Economic | Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED | W875RX1 | Monthly (released ~4 weeks after the reference month, with the BEA Personal Income & Outlays report) |
| Capacity Utilization | Economic | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | TCU | Monthly (released with Industrial Production) |
| Mfg Average Weekly Hours | Economic | FRED: AWHMAN (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | AWHMAN | Monthly |
| Services Aggregate Weekly Hours | Economic | FRED: CES0800000034 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | CES0800000034 | Monthly (jobs Friday; ~1 week after month end) |
| Real PCE: Services | Economic | FRED: DSERRA3M086SBEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | DSERRA3M086SBEA | Monthly (~4-5 weeks after month end, with Personal Income and Outlays) |
| Smoothed US Recession Probability | Economic | FRED: RECPROUSM156N (Chauvet-Piger / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | RECPROUSM156N | Monthly |
| M2 Money Supply | Economic | Federal Reserve via FRED | M2SL | Monthly (released ~4 weeks after month end) |
| CFNAI | Economic | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED | CFNAI | Monthly (released last Monday of the following month) |
| G7 Composite Leading Indicator | Economic | OECD (Data Explorer, SDMX API) | G7LOLITOAASTSAM | Monthly |
| Durable Goods Orders | Economic | FRED: DGORDER (US Census Bureau M3 Survey) | DGORDER | Monthly (approximately 4 weeks after the reference month) |
| AAII Bull-Bear Spread | Sentiment | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) | N/A — sourced directly from AAII | Weekly (every Thursday) |
| UMich Consumer Sentiment | Sentiment | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED | UMCSENT | Monthly (preliminary mid-month, final end of month) |
| UMich Current Conditions | Sentiment | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED | UMCSENT (component) | Monthly |
| UMich Consumer Expectations | Sentiment | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED | UMCSENT (component) | Monthly |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Sentiment | alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index | N/A — sourced from alternative.me API | Daily |
| Unemployment Rate | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | UNRATE | Monthly (first Friday of month) |
| JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | JTSLDL | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | PAYEMS (monthly change) | Monthly (first Friday of month) |
| Private Nonfarm Payrolls | Employment | US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Distributed via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). | USPRIV | Monthly, first Friday of the month for prior-month data (alongside the BLS Employment Situation report). |
| Private Services Payrolls | Employment | FRED: CES0800000001 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | CES0800000001 | Monthly (jobs Friday; ~1 week after month end) |
| Goods-Producing Payrolls | Employment | FRED: USGOOD (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | USGOOD | Monthly (jobs Friday; ~1 week after month end) |
| ADP Private Payrolls | Employment | FRED: ADPMNUSNERSA (ADP / Moody's Analytics) | ADPMNUSNERSA | Monthly (first Wednesday of each month) |
| Construction Employment | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | USCONS (calculated YoY) | Monthly (first Friday of month) |
| Wage Growth | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | CES0500000003 | Monthly (first Friday of month) |
| Job Openings (JOLTS) | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | JTSJOL | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| JOLTS Quit Rate | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | JTSQUR | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Employment | Department of Labor via FRED | ICSA | Weekly (every Thursday) |
| Continuing Jobless Claims | Employment | Department of Labor via FRED | CCSA | Weekly (every Thursday, 1 week lag behind initial claims) |
| Sahm Rule Recession Indicator | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics / Claudia Sahm via FRED | SAHMREALTIME | Monthly (updated with BLS jobs report) |
| Jobs vs Job Seekers Ratio | Employment | BLS JOLTS (openings) / BLS CPS (unemployed) via FRED | JTSJOL / UNEMPLOY (calculated ratio) | Monthly (JOLTS has 5-6 week lag) |
| U-6 Unemployment Rate | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Population Survey | U6RATE | Monthly (released first Friday of the following month) |
| Part-time for Economic Reasons | Employment | FRED: LNS12032194 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | LNS12032194 | Monthly (first Friday with the Employment Situation report) |
| Labor Force Participation Rate | Employment | FRED: CIVPART (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | CIVPART | Monthly (first Friday with the Employment Situation report) |
| Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed) | Housing | Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED | MORTGAGE30US | Weekly (every Thursday) |
| Home Prices (Case-Shiller) | Housing | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller via FRED | CSUSHPISA (calculated YoY) | Monthly (2-month lag) |
| Active Housing Inventory | Housing | Realtor.com / NAR via FRED | ACTLISCOUUS (active listing count) | Monthly |
| New Home Sales | Housing | US Census Bureau via FRED | HSN1F (calculated MoM) | Monthly (4-5 week lag) |
| Commercial Real Estate Delinquency | Housing | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRCRELEXFACBS | Quarterly |
| Mortgage Delinquency Rate | Housing | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRSFRMACBS | Quarterly |
| Building Permits | Housing | US Census Bureau via FRED | PERMIT | Monthly (released ~3 weeks after month end) |
| Housing Starts | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development | HOUST | Monthly (released ~3 weeks after reference month) |
| Existing Home Sales | Housing | National Association of Realtors via FRED | EXHOSLUSM495S | Monthly (released ~3-4 weeks after reference month) |
| Single-Family Building Permits | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development | PERMIT1 | Monthly (released ~3 weeks after reference month) |
| Single-Family Housing Starts | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development | HOUST1F | Monthly (released ~3 weeks after reference month) |
| Single-Family Homes Under Construction | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development | UNDCON1USA | Monthly (released ~3 weeks after reference month) |
| Single-Family Housing Completions | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development | COMPU1USA | Monthly (released ~3 weeks after reference month) |
| Residential Construction Spending (YoY) | Housing | US Census Bureau (Construction Spending); YoY computed by USMacro | PRRESCONS | Monthly (released ~2 months after reference month) |
| Residential Construction Employment (YoY) | Housing | Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics); YoY computed by USMacro | CES2023610001 | Monthly (first Friday after the reference month) |
| FHFA House Price Index (4-Quarter Change) | Housing | Federal Housing Finance Agency; 4-quarter change computed by USMacro | USSTHPI | Quarterly (released ~2 months after quarter end) |
| Months' Supply of New Homes | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development | MSACSR | Monthly (released ~4 weeks after reference month) |
| Mortgage Debt Service Ratio | Housing | Federal Reserve Board (Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios) | MDSP | Quarterly (released ~11 weeks after quarter end) |
| Housing Affordability (constructed) | Housing | Constructed by USMacro from Census MSPUS, Freddie Mac MORTGAGE30US and Census MEFAINUSA646N (all via FRED) | Constructed — 12 × payment(MSPUS at MORTGAGE30US, 30-year) ÷ MEFAINUSA646N | Monthly (recomputed nightly; income denominator is annual, interpolated) |
| Residential Investment Share of GDP | Housing | Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 1.1.10) | A011RE1Q156NBEA | Quarterly (with each GDP release) |
| All-Loans Delinquency Rate (Banks) | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRAUTOACBSQ027SBOG | Quarterly |
| Credit Card Delinquency Rate | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRCCLACBS | Quarterly |
| Business Loans | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | BUSLOANS | Monthly |
| Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRCLACBS | Quarterly |
| Consumer Credit | Consumer | Federal Reserve G.19 Release via FRED | TOTALSL | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| Debt Service Ratio | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | TDSP | Quarterly (released ~2 months after quarter end) |
| Personal Savings Rate | Consumer | FRED: PSAVERT (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | PSAVERT | Monthly (~4 weeks after the reference month) |