Every indicator on USMacro is built from publicly available, authoritative series. Some are computed on site from them, such as a year-over-year change or a spread; each row names the series it is built from. Questions about a source or a series go to data@usmacro.com.
| Indicator | Section | Source | FRED Series | Updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 RSI | Technical | S&P 500 index (^GSPC) via Yahoo Finance | N/A — market data | Daily, after market close |
| Nasdaq 100 RSI | Technical | Nasdaq-100 index (^NDX) via Yahoo Finance | N/A — market data | Daily, after market close |
| VIX — Volatility Index | Technical | CBOE via Yahoo Finance (^VIX) | N/A — fetched from Yahoo Finance as ^VIX (FRED VIXCLS is the same index) | Daily, market days only |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | Macro Risk | Yahoo Finance: DX-Y.NYB (ICE Futures) | N/A | Daily (market days) |
| Gold Price | Macro Risk | Yahoo Finance: GC=F (COMEX gold futures) | N/A | Daily (market days) |
| WTI Crude Oil | Macro Risk | Yahoo Finance: CL=F (NYMEX WTI futures) | N/A — fetched from Yahoo Finance as CL=F | Daily (market days) |
| Broad USD Index (DTWEXBGS) | Macro Risk | FRED: DTWEXBGS (Federal Reserve) | DTWEXBGS | Daily |
| OFR FSI — Emerging Markets | Macro Risk | Office of Financial Research (OFR Financial Stress Index — Emerging Markets) | N/A — the OFR's public Financial Stress Index data file, not on FRED | Daily (business days) |
| OFR Financial Stress Index | Macro Risk | Office of Financial Research (OFR Financial Stress Index) | N/A — the OFR's public Financial Stress Index data file, not on FRED | Daily (business days) |
| OFR FSI — Credit Pillar | Macro Risk | Office of Financial Research (OFR FSI — Credit pillar) | N/A — the OFR's public Financial Stress Index data file, not on FRED | Daily (business days) |
| Copper Price (Global) | Macro Risk | World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), LME copper grade A, CC BY 4.0 — from August 2026; IMF via FRED (PCOPPUSDM) through July 2026 | PCOPPUSDM | Monthly (World Bank Pink Sheet) |
| Fed Balance Sheet | Monetary & Liquidity | FRED: WALCL (Federal Reserve H.4.1 release) | WALCL | Weekly (released on Thursdays; levels as of each Wednesday) |
| Money Market Fund Assets | Monetary & Liquidity | FRED: WRMFNS (ICI / Federal Reserve H.6 release) | WRMFNS | Weekly data (weeks ending Monday), published monthly in the H.6 |
| Real 5-Year Yield (TIPS) | Monetary & Liquidity | FRED: DFII5 (US Treasury via Federal Reserve H.15) | DFII5 | Daily (business days) |
| 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) | T5YIE | Daily (market trading days) |
| 10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED | T10YIE | Daily (market trading days) |
| 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: T5YIFR (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | T5YIFR | Daily (business days) |
| Chicago Fed Financial Conditions | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED | NFCI | Weekly |
| Bank Lending Standards (SLOOS) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DRTSCILM (Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey) | DRTSCILM | Quarterly (surveys in Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct, published about six weeks later) |
| SOFR–T-bill Spread | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: SOFR, DTB3 (Computed: SOFR minus 3-Month T-Bill) | SOFR, DTB3 | Daily |
| Baa–10yr Treasury Spread | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: BAA10Y (Moody's / Federal Reserve) | BAA10Y | Daily |
| 90-Day AA CP Rate (Financial) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DCPF3M (Federal Reserve) | DCPF3M | Daily |
| CP–Tbill Spread (3-Month) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DCPF3M, DTB3 (Computed: 90-day AA Financial CP minus 3-month T-Bill) | DCPF3M, DTB3 | Daily |
| CP Financial–Nonfinancial Spread (3-Month) | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DCPF3M, DCPN3M (Computed: financial minus nonfinancial CP) | DCPF3M, DCPN3M | Daily (business days; published for dates when both legs trade) |
| Business Loans | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve via FRED | BUSLOANS | Monthly |
| Delinquency Rate on Business Loans | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: DRBLACBS (Federal Reserve) | DRBLACBS | Quarterly |
| Charge-Off Rate on Business Loans | Credit & Financial Conditions | FRED: CORBLACBS (Federal Reserve) | CORBLACBS | Quarterly |
| Excess Bond Premium | Credit & Financial Conditions | Federal Reserve Board (Gilchrist-Zakrajšek) | N/A — the Federal Reserve Board's public excess bond premium data file, not on FRED | Monthly |
| S&P 500 P/E (TTM) | Fundamental | multpl.com (S&P 500 earnings data) | N/A — sourced from multpl.com | Monthly |
| Shiller CAPE Ratio | Fundamental | Robert Shiller's dataset via multpl.com | N/A — sourced from Shiller dataset via multpl.com | Monthly |
| Buffett Indicator | Fundamental | Wilshire 5000 (continued on the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index since Jul 2026) / BEA GDP via FRED | ^DWCF × splice factor (Wilshire 5000 continuity) / GDP | Daily (market cap), Quarterly (GDP) |
| CAPE: sigma vs trend | Fundamental | Derived on-site from the Shiller CAPE series (expanding OLS, point-in-time) | N/A — derived from the site's Shiller CAPE series | Monthly (current month refreshed nightly) |
| Buffett indicator: sigma vs trend | Fundamental | Derived on-site from the Buffett indicator series (expanding OLS, point-in-time) | N/A — derived from the site's Buffett Indicator series | Monthly (current month refreshed nightly) |
| Berkshire Hathaway Cash Reserves | Fundamental | Berkshire Hathaway's 10-Q and 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR), 1995 to Q2 2026; new quarters from its balance sheet via Yahoo Finance (BRK-B) | N/A — read from Berkshire's 10-Q and 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR, and nightly from Yahoo Finance's BRK-B balance sheet | Quarterly (read nightly from Yahoo Finance) |
| Household Equity Allocation | Fundamental | Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1 Release) via FRED | BOGZ1FL153064486Q | Quarterly (10-12 week lag) |
| Household Net Worth | Fundamental | Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1 Release) via FRED | BOGZ1FL192090005Q | Quarterly (10-12 week lag) |
| HY Credit Spreads | Fundamental | ICE BofA via Federal Reserve (FRED) | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Daily (business days) |
| IG Credit Spreads | Fundamental | ICE BofA via Federal Reserve (FRED) | BAMLC0A0CM | Daily (business days) |
| GDP (Annualized) | Economic | Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED | A191RL1Q225SBEA | Quarterly |
| GDI (Annualized) | Economic | BEA via FRED (A261RX1Q020SBEA, real gross domestic income; growth computed) | A261RX1Q020SBEA (computed q/q SAAR) | Quarterly |
| GDPNow Nowcast (Current Quarter) | Economic | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta via FRED | GDPNOW (Atlanta Fed) | Read nightly; every nowcast the Atlanta Fed publishes is kept, and the cell shows the latest, dated by its own release (2-3 new nowcasts a week during active data periods) |
| OECD Leading Indicator (US) | Economic | OECD (Data Explorer, SDMX API); history and fallback via FRED | USALOLITOAASTSAM | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI® | Economic | Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) | N/A — licensed directly from ISM® | Monthly |
| ISM Services PMI® | Economic | Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) | N/A — licensed directly from ISM® | Monthly |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Economic | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | CPIAUCSL | Monthly |
| Producer Price Index (PPI), All Commodities | Economic | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | PPIACO | Monthly |
| Core PCE Inflation | Economic | FRED: PCEPILFE (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | PCEPILFE | Monthly |
| Median CPI | Economic | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland via FRED | MEDCPIM094SFRBCLE | Monthly |
| Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation | Economic | FRED: PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) | PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL | Monthly |
| Sticky Price CPI | Economic | FRED: CORESTICKM159SFRBATL (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) | CORESTICKM159SFRBATL | Monthly (with the CPI release) |
| Core Capex Orders | Economic | FRED: NEWORDER (US Census Bureau M3 Survey) | NEWORDER | Monthly (same release as Durable Goods Orders) |
| Federal Funds Rate | Economic | Federal Reserve via FRED | FEDFUNDS | Monthly (updated after each FOMC meeting or daily effective rate) |
| Yield Curve (10yr – 2yr Spread) | Economic | US Treasury / Federal Reserve via FRED | T10Y2Y | Daily (market days) |
| Cass Freight Index | Economic | Cass Information Systems via FRED | FRGSHPUSM649NCIS (FRED) | Monthly |
| Heavy Truck Sales | Economic | Bureau of Economic Analysis / Ward's Automotive via FRED | HTRUCKSSAAR | Monthly |
| Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) | Economic | US Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey via FRED | RSXFS | Monthly |
| Real Retail Sales | Economic | Census Bureau / BLS (real series) via FRED | RRSFS | Monthly |
| Industrial Production | Economic | Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED | INDPRO | Monthly |
| Real Personal Income | Economic | Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED | W875RX1 | Monthly |
| Capacity Utilization | Economic | Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED | TCU | Monthly (released with Industrial Production) |
| Mfg Average Weekly Hours | Economic | FRED: AWHMAN (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | AWHMAN | Monthly |
| Services Aggregate Weekly Hours | Economic | FRED: CES0800000034 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | CES0800000034 | Monthly (with the BLS jobs report) |
| Real PCE: Services | Economic | FRED: DSERRA3M086SBEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | DSERRA3M086SBEA | Monthly |
| Smoothed US Recession Probability | Economic | FRED: RECPROUSM156N (Chauvet-Piger / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | RECPROUSM156N | Monthly |
| M2 Money Supply | Economic | Federal Reserve via FRED | M2SL | Monthly (released ~4 weeks after month end) |
| CFNAI | Economic | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED | CFNAI | Monthly (about three to four weeks after month end) |
| G7 Composite Leading Indicator | Economic | OECD (Data Explorer, SDMX API); history and fallback via FRED | G7LOLITOAASTSAM | Monthly |
| Durable Goods Orders | Economic | FRED: DGORDER (US Census Bureau M3 Survey) | DGORDER | Monthly |
| AAII Bull-Bear Spread | Sentiment | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) | N/A — sourced directly from AAII | Weekly |
| UMich Consumer Sentiment | Sentiment | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED | UMCSENT | Monthly (preliminary mid-month, final end of month) |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Sentiment | alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index | N/A — sourced from alternative.me API | Daily |
| Unemployment Rate | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | UNRATE | Monthly |
| JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | JTSLDL | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | PAYEMS (monthly change) | Monthly |
| Private Nonfarm Payrolls | Employment | US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Distributed via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). | USPRIV | Monthly |
| Private Services Payrolls | Employment | FRED: CES0800000001 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | CES0800000001 | Monthly (with the BLS jobs report) |
| Goods-Producing Payrolls | Employment | FRED: USGOOD (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | USGOOD | Monthly (with the BLS jobs report) |
| ADP Private Payrolls | Employment | FRED: ADPMNUSNERSA (ADP National Employment Report) | ADPMNUSNERSA | Monthly, usually the Wednesday two days before the BLS jobs report |
| Construction Employment | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | USCONS (calculated YoY) | Monthly |
| Wage Growth | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | CES0500000003 | Monthly, early the following month |
| Job Openings (JOLTS) | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | JTSJOL | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| JOLTS Quit Rate | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED | JTSQUR | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Employment | Department of Labor via FRED | ICSA | Weekly (every Thursday) |
| Continuing Jobless Claims | Employment | Department of Labor via FRED | CCSA | Weekly (every Thursday, 1 week lag behind initial claims) |
| Sahm Rule Recession Indicator | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics / Claudia Sahm via FRED | SAHMREALTIME | Monthly (updated with BLS jobs report) |
| Jobs vs Job Seekers Ratio | Employment | BLS JOLTS (openings) / BLS CPS (unemployed) via FRED | JTSJOL / UNEMPLOY (calculated ratio) | Monthly (JOLTS has 5-6 week lag) |
| U-6 Unemployment Rate | Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Population Survey via FRED | U6RATE | Monthly, early the following month |
| Part-time for Economic Reasons | Employment | FRED: LNS12032194 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | LNS12032194 | Monthly, early the following month |
| Labor Force Participation Rate | Employment | FRED: CIVPART (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | CIVPART | Monthly |
| Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed) | Housing | Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED | MORTGAGE30US | Weekly |
| Home Prices (Case-Shiller) | Housing | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller via FRED | CSUSHPINSA (not seasonally adjusted; calculated YoY) | Monthly (2-month lag) |
| Active Housing Inventory | Housing | Realtor.com via FRED | ACTLISCOUUS (active listing count) | Monthly |
| New Home Sales | Housing | US Census Bureau via FRED | HSN1F (calculated MoM) | Monthly |
| Commercial Real Estate Delinquency | Housing | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRCRELEXFACBS | Quarterly |
| Mortgage Delinquency Rate | Housing | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRSFRMACBS | Quarterly |
| Building Permits | Housing | US Census Bureau via FRED | PERMIT | Monthly |
| Housing Starts | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED | HOUST | Monthly |
| Existing Home Sales | Housing | National Association of Realtors via FRED | EXHOSLUSM495S | Monthly |
| Single-Family Building Permits | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED | PERMIT1 | Monthly |
| Single-Family Housing Starts | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED | HOUST1F | Monthly |
| Single-Family Homes Under Construction | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED | UNDCON1USA | Monthly |
| Single-Family Housing Completions | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED | COMPU1USA | Monthly |
| Residential Construction Spending (YoY) | Housing | US Census Bureau (Construction Spending); YoY computed by USMacro | PRRESCONS | Monthly (released about 5 weeks after the reference month ends) |
| Residential Construction Employment (YoY) | Housing | Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics); YoY computed by USMacro | CES2023610001 | Monthly, early the following month |
| FHFA House Price Index (4-Quarter Change) | Housing | Federal Housing Finance Agency; 4-quarter change computed by USMacro | USSTHPI | Quarterly (released ~2 months after quarter end) |
| Months' Supply of New Homes | Housing | US Census Bureau / Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED | MSACSR | Monthly |
| Mortgage Debt Service Ratio | Housing | Federal Reserve Board (Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios) via FRED | MDSP | Quarterly (released ~12 weeks after quarter end) |
| Housing Affordability (constructed) | Housing | Constructed by USMacro from Census MSPUS, Freddie Mac MORTGAGE30US and Census MEFAINUSA646N (all via FRED) | Constructed — 12 × payment(MSPUS at MORTGAGE30US, 30-year) ÷ MEFAINUSA646N | A quarter at a time: a month is added only when its quarter's median new-home price (MSPUS) is published, so the weekly mortgage rate and the annual income set no pace of their own. |
| Residential Investment Share of GDP | Housing | Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 1.1.10) via FRED | A011RE1Q156NBEA | Quarterly (with each GDP release) |
| All-Loans Delinquency Rate (Banks) | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRALACBN | Quarterly |
| Credit Card Delinquency Rate | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRCCLACBS | Quarterly |
| Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | DRCLACBS | Quarterly |
| Consumer Credit | Consumer | Federal Reserve G.19 Release via FRED | TOTALSLAR | Monthly (5-6 week lag) |
| Debt Service Ratio | Consumer | Federal Reserve via FRED | TDSP | Quarterly (released ~12 weeks after quarter end) |
| Personal Savings Rate | Consumer | FRED: PSAVERT (Bureau of Economic Analysis) | PSAVERT | Monthly |