Data through: October 2026 · updated Nov 1 · Updates: Monthly
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 99th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: The Shiller CAPE is above 38 — historically extreme. Stocks have been this expensive only in 1998–2000, for two months of 2021, and since 2025. The record since 1871 is 44.2, in December 1999. Only the first of those has a full ten years behind it, and the returns were poor: from the 25 months of 1998–2000, the S&P 500 returned between −3.5% and +2.5% a year with dividends. All 25 of those ten-year periods lost ground after inflation.
Shiller CAPE Ratio · Monthly · 1871–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Shiller CAPE Ratio — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
40.6
Severe/critical reading
Sep 2026
40.4
Severe/critical reading
Aug 2026
41.0
Severe/critical reading
Jul 2026
40.0
Severe/critical reading
Jun 2026
40.2
Severe/critical reading
May 2026
40.1
Severe/critical reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Shiller CAPE?
The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio, devised by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, divides the current S&P 500 price by the average of the past 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Averaging a full decade of earnings smooths out the booms and busts in corporate profits, so CAPE gives a steadier picture of how expensive the market is than the standard P/E, which uses only the past year.
CAPE was built to say something about returns over the long run, not the next few months. In the research and on this site's record, a high starting CAPE has gone with low S&P 500 returns over the following 10 years, and a low one with high returns. The long-term average CAPE is approximately 17x. Readings of 30 or above have been followed by disappointing 10-year returns; readings below 12 have been followed by the strongest.
How We Color-Code the Shiller CAPE
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 15.0
Cheap — the strongest 10-year returns in the record followed readings here. Common historically, about 4 months in 10 since 1871 (43%), but not seen since April 2009
15.0 – 25.0
Fair value — where the market has sat about 4 months in 10 since 1871 (42%); last seen in March 2020
25.0 – 30.0
Elevated — pricier than usual, and uncommon: about 1 month in 13 (8%), in 1901, 1928–30, 1995–97, 2001–07, 2014–20 and 2022–23
30.0 – 38.0
Expensive — seen in 1929, 1997–2002 and most months of 2017–26
Above 38.0
Historically extreme — this expensive in 1998–2000, briefly in 2021, and since 2025
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Dec 1999Dot-Com Bubble Peak
44.2x
The highest CAPE ever recorded came just before a lost decade. Over the next ten years the S&P 500 returned −0.6% a year, dividends included.
Jun 1982Post-Stagflation Bottom
6.7x
The great bull market of the 1980s and 1990s began from here. Over the next ten years the S&P 500 returned +18.6% a year, dividends included.
Mar 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
13.3x
The bottom of the financial crisis. Over the next ten years the S&P 500 returned +15.4% a year, dividends included, as earnings recovered and interest rates stayed low.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Shiller CAPE ratio and who invented it?
The CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio was developed by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller of Yale University and popularized in his book "Irrational Exuberance" (2000). It compares today's price with the average of the past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation, so a single boom or bust year in profits does not distort the reading the way it can distort the standard P/E.
Is the Shiller CAPE better than the regular P/E ratio?
For what happens over the next decade, yes. On the site's data, a higher starting CAPE has gone with a lower S&P 500 return over the following ten years — a fairly strong link (a correlation of −0.50 across more than 1,600 ten-year periods since 1881). Over a single year the link is weak (about −0.2). Research finds the same: CAPE is one of the strongest predictors of 10-year S&P 500 returns. It speaks to the next ten years, not to the next few months.
Why has the CAPE been elevated for so long since 2010?
Several lasting changes may mean a higher "normal" CAPE. Interest rates were very low for most of the period, and accounting rules for earnings have changed. Profit margins have risen with globalization and technology, and more of companies' value now sits in intangible assets such as software and brands. Some economists argue that the historical average is no longer the right yardstick.
What CAPE ratio predicts good future returns?
The lower the starting CAPE, the better the following ten years have been on this site's record since 1871. From months below 15, stocks returned a median 11.9% a year with dividends. From 15–25, 7.8% a year. From 25 or above, 6.9% a year — which is 4.8% a year after inflation (the inflation figures begin in 1913). From above 35 the median result was a loss, −0.6% a year, and more than 4 in 5 of those ten-year periods lost ground after inflation (28 of the 34, through September 2026).
Can I use CAPE to time the market?
No — an expensive market can stay expensive for years. CAPE reached 25 in December 1995, for the first time since 1930. Apart from two single months in 1996, it stayed there until June 2002. Since June 2014 it has been at or above 25 in all but four months, the last in March 2020. From December 1995 the S&P 500 went on to return another 160% with dividends before its August 2000 peak. CAPE speaks to returns over the next ten years, not to the next ten weeks.