Source: Robert Shiller / Yale University (public dataset)
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 1 · Updates: Monthly
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 99th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: The Shiller CAPE is at historically extreme levels. Only the peak of the dot-com bubble (44x) exceeded today's reading. Research consistently shows that 10-year returns from CAPE above 38x have been disappointing — often near zero or negative in real terms.
Shiller CAPE Ratio · Monthly · 1871–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
Shiller CAPE Ratio — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
40.9
Severe/critical reading
Jul 2026
42.2
Severe/critical reading
Jun 2026
40.6
Severe/critical reading
May 2026
41.4
Severe/critical reading
Apr 2026
38.3
Severe/critical reading
Mar 2026
37.7
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from shiller_cape. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Shiller CAPE?
The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio, developed by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, divides the current S&P 500 price by the average of the past 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. By smoothing earnings over a full decade, CAPE removes the distortions caused by temporary boom-and-bust cycles in corporate profits — giving a more stable long-term valuation picture than the standard trailing P/E ratio.
CAPE was designed specifically to predict long-term market returns. Research shows that starting CAPE is one of the strongest predictors of 10-year forward S&P 500 returns — high CAPE predicts low future returns, low CAPE predicts high future returns. The long-term average CAPE is approximately 17x. A CAPE above 30 has historically been followed by disappointing 10-year returns; CAPE below 12 has historically preceded exceptional long-term gains.
How We Color-Code the Shiller CAPE
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Fair to slightly undervalued — good long-term entry
22x – 28x
Moderately elevated — temper return expectations
28x – 38x
Expensive — poor expected 10-year returns
Above 38x
Historically extreme — only dot-com bubble exceeded this
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Dec 1999Dot-Com Bubble Peak
CAPE: 44.2x
S&P 500 delivered -1.0% annualized returns over the next 10 years. The highest CAPE ever recorded preceded a lost decade for equities.
Jun 1982Post-Stagflation Bottom
CAPE: 6.6x
S&P 500 returned +16.6% annualized over the next 10 years — one of the greatest bull markets in history began from this CAPE level.
Mar 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
CAPE: 13.3x
S&P 500 returned +13.2% annualized over the next 10 years as earnings recovered and rates stayed low.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current Shiller CAPE reading of 40.9 (Very Negative):
⚠Historically extreme CAPE — only the dot-com bubble exceeded this level
⚠Research shows near-zero or negative 10-year real returns from these CAPE levels
✓Seriously consider international diversification and alternative asset classes
ℹCAPE cannot predict when correction occurs — could be months or years away
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Shiller CAPE ratio and who invented it?
The CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio was developed by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller of Yale University and popularized in his book "Irrational Exuberance" (2000). It uses 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings to smooth out business cycle distortions that affect the standard trailing P/E.
Is the Shiller CAPE better than the regular P/E ratio?
For predicting long-term returns, yes — research shows CAPE is one of the strongest predictors of 10-year forward S&P 500 returns. For short-term signals, the trailing P/E is more responsive. CAPE is best used for setting long-term return expectations and portfolio allocation, not for market timing.
Why has the CAPE been elevated for so long since 2010?
Several structural factors may justify a higher "normal" CAPE: historically low interest rates, changes in accounting standards for earnings, higher corporate profit margins due to globalization and technology, and higher share of intangible assets. Some economists argue the CAPE's historical average is no longer the right benchmark.
What CAPE ratio predicts good future returns?
Research by Shiller and others shows that CAPE below 15x has historically predicted 10-year annualized returns above 10%. CAPE of 15-22x predicts returns of 7-10%. CAPE above 25x predicts returns below 5%. CAPE above 35x has predicted near-zero or negative real returns over 10 years.
Can I use CAPE to time the market?
No — CAPE is a terrible short-term market timing tool. Markets remained above CAPE 25x from 1995 to 2002 and from 2014 to present. An investor who sold at CAPE 25x in 1995 missed the best years of the dot-com bull market. CAPE predicts 10-year ranges of returns, not 10-week market moves.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1How does the current Shiller CAPE ratio compare to historical levels?
The Shiller CAPE ratio stands at 42.17 in the 98.9th percentile of readings since 1881, with only 18 months ever higher, all occurring in 1999–2000. Over roughly 150 years of data, it has been higher only once at the very top of the dot-com bubble in late 1999 when it touched 44.2, making today's reading the second-highest in recorded history.
2What does a CAPE ratio of 42.17 mean for long-term stock market valuations?
The CAPE ratio of 42.17 stands at more than double the long-term average of 17.8. Valuations predict returns, not crashes, with CAPE reliably forecasting the next ten years rather than the next twelve months, as high starting valuations have historically been associated with lower average annual returns over the following decade.
3How rare is the current CAPE ratio level in market history?
The CAPE ratio has surpassed 30 and remained there for at least two consecutive months on only six occasions over its full history during sustained bull markets. The last time the Shiller CAPE ratio was at levels like 40.91 was August 2000, almost 26 years ago, while the median CAPE ratio since 2000 is roughly 27, and the long-term average dating back to the 1870s is 17.
4What factors have contributed to such elevated valuation levels in 2026?
This period has featured low interest rates and strong technology-based corporate earnings, both of which have helped to elevate valuations at the mean.
5What does implied future annual return at current valuation levels suggest?
At the current Shiller PE reading, the implied future annual return is 1.2%.