Source: US Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey via FRED
Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 15 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 17
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 6.1% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 64th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Retail sales are rising strongly — a monthly gain above 0.5%. That is the most common reading, about 5 in 10 of all months since 1992 (190 of 416). On its own it has said little about what came next: the S&P 500 was higher a year after the release about 4 times in 5 (143 of 183), the same as after any month.
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) · Monthly · 1992–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+0.7% MoM
Very strong reading
Aug 2026
+1.3% MoM
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
−0.6% MoM
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
+0.1% MoM
Healthy reading
May 2026
+1.1% MoM
Very strong reading
Apr 2026
+0.5% MoM
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from retail_sales_mom_pct. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Retail Sales?
Retail sales measures the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. The monthly change (MoM) shows whether consumer spending is accelerating or contracting.
Consumer spending is about 70% of US GDP. Retail sales, roughly a quarter of GDP, is its earliest monthly reading, published about two weeks after the month ends.
How We Color-Code the Retail Sales
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −1.0%
Sharp monthly drop — below −1%. Rare, about 1 month in 13 since 1992 (31 of 416), and most came with no recession near: 18 with none, 9 inside one, the rest beside one
−1.0% – −0.5%
Falling sales — between −1% and −0.5%, about 1 month in 10 since 1992 (42 of 416), 4 of them inside a recession
−0.5% – 0.0%
Flat to slightly down — between −0.5% and 0%, about 1 month in 7 since 1992 (56 of 416)
0.0% – 0.5%
Moderate gain — between 0% and 0.5%, about 1 month in 4 since 1992 (93 of 416)
Above 0.5%
Strong gain — above 0.5%, the most common reading: about 5 in 10 of all months since 1992 (190 of 416)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID lockdowns
−11.9%
The sharpest monthly fall on the site's data since 1992, as stores closed nationwide. March had already fallen 6.2%.
May 2020Reopening bounce
+18.5%
The largest monthly gain on the site's data since 1992, as stores reopened.
Mar 2021Stimulus checks
+10.3%
The second-largest monthly gain on the site's data since 1992, the month the third round of pandemic payments arrived.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is included in retail sales?
The series shown here covers sales at physical and online stores: food and beverage stores, clothing, electronics, gas stations, auto dealers and the rest of retail trade. It excludes restaurants and bars (food services) and services such as healthcare and housing.
How does retail sales relate to GDP?
Consumer spending is about 70% of US GDP. Retail sales, about a quarter of GDP, is the earliest monthly reading on part of that spending. The rest is services, which retail sales does not cover.
What moves retail sales the most?
Gas prices (which swing gas station receipts), auto sales and stimulus payments are the biggest movers. Analysts often look at the "control group", which strips out autos, gas, food and building materials, for a cleaner reading.
Why is the control group retail sales measure preferred by economists over the headline number?
The headline figure includes volatile categories such as gasoline, autos and building materials, which can swing the number sharply without saying much about underlying demand. The control group excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials and gas stations. It feeds directly into the GDP calculation of consumer spending and is read as a cleaner measure of underlying spending. A strong headline driven entirely by gasoline prices says little about consumer health.
How quickly does retail sales respond to changes in consumer confidence?
Not in any regular way. Since 1992 the monthly change in retail sales has had almost no relationship to the previous month's change in consumer sentiment (correlation −0.03), and little to the same month's (0.15). The link shows at extremes. Sentiment peaked in February 2020 and fell in March, the month retail sales dropped 6.2%, and the 11.9% fall of April followed. The 2021 surge came with the pandemic relief payments: March 2021's +10.3% is the second-largest gain since 1992. Gasoline prices and credit conditions are not measured here.