Data through: October 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Dec 4
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 0.1 pp MoM
Historical context: Currently in the 18th percentile — near historically low/favorable levels.
What this means right now: Unemployment is low — 3.5–4.5%, near full employment. This is where the economy stood in the late 1960s, 1998–2001, 2006–07 and every year since 2017: workers can find jobs, and wages are not yet racing ahead.
Unemployment Rate · Monthly · 1948–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Unemployment Rate — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
4.1%
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
4.2%
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
4.1%
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
4.1%
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
4.2%
Healthy reading
May 2026
4.3%
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Unemployment?
The unemployment rate is the share of the labor force that is looking for work but cannot find it. It is the single most widely watched labor market number and one of the Federal Reserve's two goals, alongside stable prices. When unemployment is low, workers have bargaining power, consumers spend, and the economy is generally healthy. When it rises, spending weakens and the risk of recession grows.
The rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports is the U-3 measure, often called the "headline" rate. It counts people who have no job, are available to work, and have looked for one in the past four weeks. Economists put the long-run "natural" rate — the level that goes with steady inflation — at roughly 4-5%. When unemployment falls well below it, wages have tended to accelerate.
Data note: the October 2025 monthly reading is missing because the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an Employment Situation report for that month during the 2025 government shutdown. BLS skipped October rather than filling it in later, so FRED has no value to report. The site leaves the gap rather than making a figure up.
How We Color-Code the Unemployment
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
3.5% or below
Very low — the tightest job markets on record: 1948, 1951–53, 1968–69, 2019–20 and 2022–23
3.5% – 4.5%
Low — near full employment, as in the late 1960s, 1998–2001, 2006–07 and every year since 2017
4.5% – 5.5%
Moderate — the long-run norm, about 1 month in 4 since 1948 (23%)
5.5% – 7.0%
Elevated — recessions and the slow recoveries after them; about 1 month in 4 (27%)
Above 7.0%
High — mostly the years after a recession rather than the recession itself: 1949, 1958, 1961, 1974–77, 1980–86, 1991–93, 2008–13 and 2020
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
14.8%
The highest unemployment on record since 1948 (14.8%). The rate was back to its pre-COVID 3.5% by July 2022, 27 months after the peak.
Apr 2023Post-COVID Tightness
3.4%
The lowest unemployment since 1969 — a 54-year low, in an exceptionally tight post-COVID job market. The BLS first reported 3.4% for January 2023, but later revisions put that month at 3.5% in the site's record (the first print is not archived here). The card therefore shows April 2023, which the record puts at 3.4%.
Oct 2009Financial Crisis Peak
10.0%
Unemployment hit double digits in the financial crisis. It took 6 years, to September 2015, to get back to the pre-crisis level of 5%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the Fed care so much about unemployment?
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. This means the Fed must balance fighting inflation (which often requires raising rates, which can increase unemployment) against supporting jobs (which often requires lowering rates). When unemployment is very low, the Fed worries about inflationary wage pressure. When it rises sharply, the Fed cuts rates to stimulate hiring.
What is the difference between U-3 and U-6 unemployment?
U-3, the headline rate, counts people who are jobless, available and actively looking. U-6 is the broadest measure: it adds "marginally attached" workers (who want work but stopped looking) and part-timers who want full-time work. U-6 usually runs 3 to 5 percentage points above U-3 — it did in about three months of every four since 1994 (299 of 392, through September 2026), and the typical gap is 4.0 points. It widened past 5 points in 1994, 2008–16 and 2020. It gives a fuller picture of slack in the job market than U-3 alone.
Why did unemployment fall so quickly after COVID?
The COVID unemployment spike was unusual — most of the job losses were "temporary layoffs" rather than permanent. Workers expected to go back to their jobs when businesses reopened, and most did. With massive fiscal stimulus keeping businesses solvent and consumers spending, the rate was back at its pre-COVID 3.5% within 27 months of the April 2020 peak. By comparison, after the October 2009 peak it took 71 months — almost six years — to get back to the pre-recession 5.0%.
What unemployment rate is considered "full employment"?
Fed officials' estimates of the "natural rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) have centred around 4% in recent years. Below it, wages tend to pick up as employers compete for scarce workers. But the natural rate is an estimate, and it moves. From early 2022 into 2024, unemployment stayed below 4%. Pay growth first rose to about 6% a year in March 2022, its fastest since the site's figures begin in 2007, apart from the spring 2020 lockdown. It then eased to about 4% by the end of 2023 while unemployment stayed low.
Does the stock market bottom before or after unemployment peaks?
Before. In each of the last five cycles the stock market hit its low before unemployment peaked — by 4, 20, 8, 7 and 1 months (1982, 1992, 2003, 2009, 2020), typically about seven months. The gap has been anything from one month to almost two years.