Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 11 · Updates: Monthly
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 60th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: The OECD US leading indicator is rising — the growth cycle is improving. The CLI's message is its direction, and the direction is up. This is the most common state, about 4 months in 10 since 1955 (361 of 860).
OECD Leading Indicator (US) · Monthly · 1955–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
OECD Leading Indicator (US) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+0.05%
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
+0.08%
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
+0.11%
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+0.11%
Healthy reading
May 2026
+0.11%
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
+0.11%
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the US CLI (OECD)?
This is the OECD's composite leading indicator (CLI) for the United States, amplitude-adjusted — not the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is proprietary and is not on this site. The OECD builds the CLI by aggregating component series that have shown a reasonably consistent relationship with a reference series at turning points (industrial production up to March 2012; GDP since). In the OECD's own words, the main message of CLI movements over time is the increase or decrease, not the amplitude of the changes.
The index is centred on 100, the long-term trend: above 100 the cycle sits above trend, below 100 below it, and the direction of travel — rising or falling — is the message. USMacro shows the month-over-month percentage change of the index, so the color reads the direction: a rise reads green, a small fall neutral, and a steeper fall red. The level itself is on the G7 Composite Leading Indicator page, which is the same OECD construction for the seven largest developed economies.
The series is monthly and revised: each new release re-estimates recent months (the amplitude adjustment and the trend are re-fitted), so the last few readings move between releases. The OECD publishes it in the middle of the following month — about two weeks after the month ends. The site's archive of the OECD's earlier releases begins in September 2026, so for the history before that it cannot say what each month looked like when first published.
How We Color-Code the US CLI (OECD)
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −0.60%
Falling sharply — a fall of the size seen around recessions. Only 7 months since 1955 have read here, all inside a recession
−0.60% – −0.30%
Falling — the cycle is turning down, as in about 1 month in 14 since 1955 (62 of 860)
−0.30% – 0.00%
Flat to slightly falling — momentum is stalling, as in about 4 months in 10 since 1955 (345 of 860)
0.00% – 0.30%
Rising — the growth cycle is improving, the most common state: about 4 months in 10 since 1955 (361 of 860)
0.30% or above
Rising strongly — the indicator is accelerating above its trend, as in about 1 month in 10 since 1955 (85 of 860)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Shock
the steepest monthly fall in the series
The April 2020 lockdowns brought the steepest one-month fall in the index's history, −5.0%. The rebound that followed was the fastest, 2.0% in June 2020 — the amplitude adjustment does not damp a shock of that size.
Mar 2009GFC Trough
the cycle low of the financial crisis
The index bottomed in March 2009, and its month-over-month change turned positive in April, two months before the recession ended in June. The direction turned well before the level was back to trend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index?
No. The Conference Board's LEI is a proprietary index and is not on this site. This page shows the OECD's composite leading indicator for the United States (OECD Data Explorer series USA.M.LI...AA...H; FRED carried it as USALOLITOAASTSAM). The page was labelled "Leading Economic Index" until September 2026, which read as the Conference Board's; the label was corrected with the data source.
What is the OECD composite leading indicator?
In the OECD's description, it is a time series formed by aggregating component indicators that show a reasonably consistent relationship with a reference series at turning points. The reference series was industrial production up to March 2012 and has been GDP since. It is designed to give qualitative information on short-term economic movements, especially at the turning points, rather than quantitative measures. The message is the increase or decrease, not the amplitude of the change.
What does "amplitude adjusted" mean?
The CLI's swings are rescaled so that its historical oscillations have a common amplitude with the reference series, and the result is centred on 100 — the long-term trend. Above 100 the cycle is above trend, below 100 below it. The G7 Composite Leading Indicator page on this site shows the same construction for the seven largest developed economies, with its level.
Why does this page show a month-over-month change rather than the level?
Because the OECD's own guidance is that the message of the CLI is its direction. The month-over-month change is that direction, and the colors read it. A rise is green and a small fall, down to −0.30%, is neutral. Steeper falls are red, the deepest below −0.60%.
Why do recent readings change between releases?
The series is revised at each monthly release: the trend and the amplitude adjustment are re-estimated, so the last several months move. The chart and this page show the series as revised today, not as each month was first published: the site's archive of this series begins in September 2026, so it holds none of its earlier releases. The series does not feed the State of the Economy.
Where does the data come from?
From the OECD directly, through its SDMX API (the Data Explorer), read daily. The history before July 2026 came through FRED as USALOLITOAASTSAM, whose updates paused at June 2026 and have since resumed. FRED remains the fallback if the OECD read fails.