What is the US CLI (OECD)?
This is the OECD's composite leading indicator (CLI) for the United States, amplitude-adjusted — not the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is proprietary and is not on this site. The OECD builds the CLI by aggregating component series that have shown a reasonably consistent relationship with a reference series at turning points (industrial production up to March 2012; GDP since). It is designed to give qualitative information on short-term economic movements, especially at the turning points, rather than quantitative measures: in the OECD's own words, the main message of CLI movements over time is the increase or decrease, rather than the amplitude of the changes.
The index is centred on 100, the long-term trend: above 100 the cycle sits above trend, below 100 below it, and the direction of travel — rising or falling — is the signal. USMacro shows the month-over-month percentage change of the index, so the color reads the direction: a rising CLI reads blue, a falling one red. The level itself is on the G7 Composite Leading Indicator page, which is the same OECD construction for the seven largest developed economies.
The series is monthly and revised: each new release re-estimates recent months (the amplitude adjustment and the trend are re-fitted), so the last few readings move between releases. The OECD publishes it about six weeks after the reference month.
How We Color-Code the US CLI (OECD)
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Above +0.3% MoM
Rising strongly — the leading indicator is accelerating above its trend
0% to +0.3% MoM
Rising — the growth cycle is improving
-0.3% to 0% MoM
Flat to slightly falling — watch for sustained weakness
-0.6% to -0.3% MoM
Falling — the cycle is turning down
Below -0.6% MoM
Falling sharply — a downturn of the size seen around recessions
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
the steepest monthly fall in the series
The April 2020 lockdowns produced the largest one-month decline in the US CLI's history, and the rebound that followed was the fastest — the amplitude adjustment does not damp a shock of that size.
the cycle low of the financial crisis
The index bottomed in the spring of 2009 as the recession ended; the turn in the month-over-month change came before the level itself recovered to trend.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current US CLI (OECD) reading of +0.06% (Positive):
✓Leading indicator rising — the growth cycle improving, maintain exposure
ℹConfirm with the ISM PMI and jobless claims for corroborating evidence
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index?
No. The Conference Board's LEI is a proprietary index and is not on this site. This page shows the OECD's composite leading indicator for the United States (OECD Data Explorer series USA.M.LI...AA...H; FRED carried it as USALOLITOAASTSAM). The page was labelled "Leading Economic Index" until September 2026, which read as the Conference Board's; the label was corrected with the data source.
What is the OECD composite leading indicator?
In the OECD's description: a time series formed by aggregating a variety of component indicators which show a reasonably consistent relationship with a reference series (industrial production up to March 2012, GDP since) at turning points. It is designed to provide qualitative information on short-term economic movements, especially at the turning points, rather than quantitative measures — the message is the increase or decrease, not the amplitude of the change.
What does "amplitude adjusted" mean?
The CLI's swings are rescaled so that its historical oscillations have a common amplitude with the reference series, and the result is centred on 100 — the long-term trend. Above 100 the cycle is above trend, below 100 below it. The G7 Composite Leading Indicator page on this site shows the same construction for the seven largest developed economies, with its level.
Why does this page show a month-over-month change rather than the level?
Because the OECD's own guidance is that the message of the CLI is its direction. The month-over-month percentage change of the index is the direction, and the color thresholds read it: rising is blue, falling is red, and a sharp fall is the deep red.
Why do recent readings change between releases?
The series is revised at each monthly release: the trend and the amplitude adjustment are re-estimated, so the last several months move. USMacro records every revision it receives and keeps the point-in-time history, so the State of the Economy's backtests read what was knowable at the time, not the revised figures.
Where does the data come from?
From the OECD directly, through its SDMX API (the Data Explorer), read daily. FRED carried the same series as USALOLITOAASTSAM until June 2026, when OECD stopped feeding it; the history before then came through FRED and FRED remains the fallback if the OECD read fails.