State of the Economy

Where the U.S. economy stands — and what’s building underneath.

Fixed rules, the full record, counts of what followed — no forecasts of the site’s own.

Today's reading

The read

Regime Expansion since Oct 2025
Momentum 62 healthy
Forward Stress 61 healthy
Inflation Regime 46 neutral
Economic breadth +54% 15 of 24 improving · broad improvement

Underneath

  • Housing Downturn spreading leading ↑ coincident ↓ lagging ↑ · since Aug 2026

What changed

Each gauge is 0–100, the weighted mean of its inputs' ranks within trailing 10- or 20-year windows (50: the inputs at their window medians), the record since 1981; the regime and the gauges read live, Economic Breadth and Housing the revised monthly record.

Where the stress sits · every indicator, by category

Each cell is one indicator, coloured against its own historical thresholds.

Technical3
Macro Risk8
Monetary & Liquidity3
Credit & Financial Conditions13
Fundamental10
Economic30
Sentiment3
Employment18
Housing20
Consumer7
Healthy Stress
The Suite

12 tools, grouped by the question they answer.

Some map the state of the economy; others read the market. They are not the same question, and the site keeps them apart.

Where are we?

State of the Economy is the economy growing, and is anything about to break?
Economic Breadth how much of the economy is moving the same way?
Corporate Profit Share are profits running above what they usually can?

What's building underneath?

Housing Cycle is housing turning, and which way?

What is the market doing?

Valuations how expensive is the market against its own history?
Capitulation Monitor is the selling done?
The yield curve what has followed an inverted yield curve?

Has this happened before?

Regimes what happened the last time the economy looked like this?
Confluence which past months most resemble today?

How do we know?

Indicator Heatmap every indicator, coloured by its threshold ladder
Indicator Deep Dives the full story of any one indicator
Revisions Ledger how far do first prints miss?

115 indicators, 45 of them inside the three composites that read the whole economy — and every historical episode the composites have produced since the records begin.