Source: FRED: CES0800000001 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 2 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 6
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 24th percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: Services hiring has nearly stalled. Hiring this weak has been unusual outside recessions — about one non-recession month in seven since 1950 (121 of 808). Goods payrolls and continuing claims show whether the weakness is broader.
Private Services Payrolls · Monthly · 1939–2026
NBER recessions
Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
Private Services Payrolls — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+28K
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
+55K
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
−7K
Severe/critical reading
Jun 2026
+12K
Concerning reading
May 2026
+58K
Concerning reading
Apr 2026
+144K
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from services_payrolls_mom. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Services Payrolls?
All Employees, Private Service-Providing (FRED: CES0800000001) counts every employee on private service-sector payrolls. That covers trade, transportation, utilities, information, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health, leisure and hospitality, and other services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it monthly in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) establishment survey, alongside the headline payrolls number.
Services employ most Americans — 84.1% of private jobs in Sep 2026 — so this is the broadest hard count of the part of the economy that shapes modern cycles. It matters most at turning points. Services hiring held up through the factory slowdown of 2015-16, and there was no recession. It broke in 2008-09 and in 2020, and both were recessions. That is why this series is the largest input to the site's State of the Economy Momentum composite (18% effective weight; DR-41).
The cell on the site shows the change from the month before, in thousands of jobs, like the other payroll series.
How We Color-Code the Services Payrolls
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 0K
Services are shedding jobs. This has usually meant a recession — about 5 in 10 of the months that services lost jobs since 1950 fell inside one (71 of 131)
0K – 60K
Stalling — hiring this weak has been unusual outside recessions: about one non-recession month in seven since 1950 (121 of 808)
60K – 120K
Modest growth — 60K to 120K a month, as in 204 months since 1950. This pace has said little about where unemployment goes: a year later it was lower in 114 of those months and higher in 75
120K – 200K
Healthy expansion pace for the services engine of the economy
Above 200K
Boom-grade services hiring — broad expansion with labor demand to spare
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
−17,171K
The largest job loss in US history. Services payrolls fell from 107.2M to 90.0M in a single month as in-person services shut down. It took 26 months, until April 2022, to get back to the February 2020 level.
Jun 2009GFC Recession
90.0M (grinding losses)
Services jobs fell almost every month through 2008-09 — 22 of the 24 months — the mark of a broad recession rather than a slowdown in one sector. Compare 2015-16, when services kept growing.
Dec 2015Goods Slowdown That Was Not a Recession
+226K
Factories and builders stopped hiring through 2015-16 (five months of losses), but services kept adding jobs — +181K a month on average, never fewer than +77K. There was no recession. It shows why the split between services and goods tells more than the headline number alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why track services payrolls separately from total private payrolls?
Total payrolls mix two very different economies: goods production (about 16% of private jobs, and the part that swings) and services (huge, steady, slow to break). Goods jobs were already falling as eight of the eleven recessions since 1950 began — but they have also fallen with no recession at all (five months of losses in 2015-16). Services jobs have shrunk mostly in recessions: 71 of the 131 months of losses since 1950 fell inside one, about three in four counting the months just before and after. The split shows which kind of episode is underway.
How does this differ from the ISM Services PMI?
The ISM Services index is a survey: purchasing managers say whether business is better or worse. Services payrolls is a count of actual jobs. The survey moves earlier but is noisier (and licensed); the job count is firmer, though it is revised later, and it confirms rather than predicts. USMacro uses the job count in its Momentum composite because it separates services holding up (2015-16) from services breaking (2008, 2020).