USMacroBETA

JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges

Positive
CURRENT VALUE
1.67M
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED
Data through: July 2026 · updated Sep 2 · Updates: Monthly (5-6 week lag)
The three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 6.7% MoM
Historical context: Currently in the 15th percentile — near historically low/favorable levels.
What this means right now: Layoffs are low — minimal involuntary job loss indicates a healthy labor market where employers are not actively reducing headcount. Workers face low job security risk.
JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges · Monthly · 2000–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Jul 20261.67MHealthy reading
Jun 20261.78MHealthy reading
May 20261.76MHealthy reading
Apr 20261.67MHealthy reading
Mar 20261.88MHealthy reading
Feb 20261.71MHealthy reading

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from jolts_layoffs. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the JOLTS Layoffs?

JOLTS Layoffs and Discharges measures the total number of involuntary separations each month — workers who lost their jobs through layoffs, downsizing, plant closings, or being fired. Unlike the quit rate (which measures voluntary departures), layoffs measure forced departures initiated by employers. Rising layoffs signal that employers are actively reducing headcount — a powerful leading indicator of rising unemployment and economic stress.

The layoffs level provides important context alongside jobless claims: while claims measure workers who filed for unemployment benefits, JOLTS layoffs measure total involuntary separations including workers who may not file claims (e.g., workers who receive severance, part-time workers, or workers in states with more restrictive eligibility). Together, the two series paint a complete picture of involuntary job loss in the US economy.

How We Color-Code the JOLTS Layoffs

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Below 1.4M
Very low layoffs — employers retaining workers, tight labor market
1.4M – 1.8M
Low layoffs — minimal involuntary job loss, healthy labor market
1.8M – 2.2M
Moderate — normal churn, labor market in equilibrium
2.2M – 2.8M
Elevated layoffs — labor market stress building
Above 2.8M
High layoffs — significant involuntary job loss, recession conditions

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Mar 2020COVID Shutdown
12.98M
The largest single-month layoff surge in history — nearly 12 million involuntary separations in one month during the COVID shutdown.
2022Post-COVID Historic Low
1.40M
The lowest layoff rates in the survey's history — employers were so desperate for workers they retained everyone they could, even amid slowing economic conditions.
2008-2009Financial Crisis
Layoffs peaked at 2.8M per month
Sustained high layoffs throughout the financial crisis drove unemployment to 10% — each month of elevated layoffs added to the cumulative unemployment total.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current JOLTS Layoffs reading of 1.67M (Positive):

✓Low layoffs — healthy labor market, workers have strong job security
✓Maintain equity exposure — low layoff environment supports consumer spending

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between layoffs and jobless claims?
Jobless claims count workers who file for unemployment benefits — a subset of all workers who lost jobs. JOLTS layoffs count all involuntary separations regardless of whether the worker filed for benefits. Workers who receive severance packages and delay filing, part-time workers, and workers in some states may be laid off but not counted in claims. JOLTS layoffs therefore capture a broader picture of involuntary job loss than claims alone.
Why were layoffs so unusually low in 2021-2022 despite economic uncertainty?
Employers experienced such severe difficulty hiring workers during the post-COVID labor shortage that they were extremely reluctant to lay off anyone — even as business conditions slowed. The cost of replacing a laid-off worker (recruiting, hiring, training) exceeded the benefit of short-term cost savings for most employers. This "labor hoarding" phenomenon kept layoffs at historic lows even as the Fed raised rates aggressively.
Do layoffs lead or lag the economic cycle?
Layoffs slightly lag economic deterioration at the onset of a downturn (employers are slow to reduce headcount initially) but become a self-reinforcing factor once underway — each wave of layoffs reduces consumer spending, which leads to more business revenue pressure and further layoffs. The initial lag followed by acceleration is why layoff trends, once established, tend to persist for several quarters.
Are tech layoffs a reliable signal for the broader labor market?
Not necessarily — tech industry layoffs make headlines disproportionately because they involve well-documented large announcements at major companies. But tech is only about 3-4% of total employment. Healthcare (15%), retail (11%), and government (14%) layoff trends matter far more for the aggregate layoffs number than tech sector moves, even dramatic ones.
How quickly do JOLTS layoffs respond to economic deterioration, and how does this compare to jobless claims?
JOLTS layoffs are a monthly survey with a 6-week reporting lag, making them slower than weekly jobless claims but more comprehensive — they capture all separations including those not eligible for unemployment insurance. Jobless claims give a faster real-time pulse, while JOLTS layoffs provide the definitive monthly count. A meaningful rise in JOLTS layoffs confirmed by rising jobless claims is a strong signal that labor market deterioration is broadening, not isolated to specific sectors.