Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Quarterly
Historical context: Currently in the 29th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Delinquency below the historical median — business credit quality is healthy. No bank-channel stress signal visible. Charge-offs (CORBLACBS) should also be benign.
Delinquency Rate on Business Loans · Quarterly · 1987–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
Delinquency Rate on Business Loans — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q2 2026
1.27%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
1.33%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
1.34%
Healthy reading
Q3 2025
1.33%
Healthy reading
Q2 2025
1.29%
Healthy reading
Q1 2025
1.28%
Healthy reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from drblacbs. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Biz Loan Delinq.?
The Delinquency Rate on Business Loans (FRED: DRBLACBS) measures the percentage of business loans at all commercial banks that are 30 or more days past due. Published quarterly by the Federal Reserve, this series directly captures the share of corporate borrowers experiencing payment difficulty — a realized measure of credit stress, as opposed to market-priced signals like credit spreads.
Business loan delinquency has a characteristic two-stage dynamics with its companion indicator, the charge-off rate (CORBLACBS): delinquencies typically rise first, as loans begin to miss payments, and charge-offs follow 1–2 quarters later as banks exhaust collection efforts and formally write off the losses. This makes DRBLACBS the leading indicator within the DRBLACBS/CORBLACBS pair — it signals rising corporate credit problems before those problems crystallize into permanent bank losses.
Compared to market-priced indicators like the Baa–10yr spread or HY spreads, DRBLACBS is a lagging indicator relative to financial markets but a leading indicator relative to peak unemployment and official recession end-dates. It captures the real-world outcome in the banking system after the initial market shock has occurred. Because it measures actual payment failures at commercial banks, it cannot be manipulated or distorted by market technicals.
How We Color-Code the Biz Loan Delinq.
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
< 1.2%
Very low — corporate borrowers almost all current; below p25 of history
1.2% – 1.8%
Below median — healthy credit quality; business loans performing well
1.8% – 2.75%
Near median — some borrower stress beginning but not widespread
Severe — GFC-comparable delinquency; bank credit channel impaired
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2010-01-01GFC Peak Delinquency
3.92%
The GFC drove business loan delinquencies to their highest level in the modern series as mass corporate cash flow disruption and overleveraged balance sheets caused simultaneous payment failures across thousands of commercial borrowers. Banks tightened credit severely, deepening the recession.
2022-07-01Post-COVID Trough
1.12%
The lowest business loan delinquency rate in the modern series — unprecedented fiscal stimulus, PPP loans, and forbearance programs essentially eliminated business loan failures for several years post-COVID. This extreme low is partly an artifact of pandemic relief programs.
2002-01-01Dot-Com / 9-11 Peak
3.69%
Business loan delinquencies rose sharply as the dot-com bust caused widespread failures among technology and telecom companies that had borrowed heavily during the 1990s bubble. The September 11 attacks deepened the disruption.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current Biz Loan Delinq. reading of 1.27% (Positive):
✓Healthy business credit — no bank-channel stress; supportive for financials and credit markets
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between delinquency and charge-off?
A delinquency occurs when a loan is 30 or more days past due — the borrower has missed payments but the loan has not been written off. A charge-off occurs when the bank formally writes the loan off its books as uncollectible, typically after 90-180 days of non-payment. Delinquencies precede charge-offs by 1–2 quarters. DRBLACBS measures delinquencies (payment problems); CORBLACBS measures charge-offs (actual realized bank losses). Watching both together gives a leading and lagging read on corporate credit health.
Why does this indicator lag market-based credit signals?
Market-based signals like HY spreads or the Baa–10yr spread move in real time as investors adjust their assessment of corporate default risk. Actual loan delinquencies only appear in banking data after months of missed payments. A recession typically causes market spreads to widen months before delinquencies peak, and delinquencies often peak near or after the official recession end date. This makes DRBLACBS confirmation of stress the market already priced — but a more reliable, hard-to-manipulate signal.
How does this relate to the 2020 COVID episode?
Despite the deepest economic contraction since the Great Depression in Q2 2020, business loan delinquencies barely rose. PPP loans, Fed facilities, and widespread forbearance programs meant banks were not recording delinquencies even when borrowers had no cash flow. This is a classic limitation of regulatory delinquency data — support programs can mask the underlying stress. The eventual very low post-COVID delinquency readings (0.72%) similarly reflect the massive corporate cash infusions rather than organic credit health.
Does this indicator cover all bank loans or just certain types?
DRBLACBS covers business (commercial and industrial) loans at all commercial banks in the US Federal Reserve reporting system. It does not include commercial real estate loans (see DRCRELEXFACBS for that series), consumer loans, or loans at credit unions or non-bank lenders. It is the most direct measure of commercial bank exposure to business credit deterioration.