Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Quarterly
Historical context: Currently in the 29th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Delinquency is low — business credit quality is healthy, as in about 1 quarter in 4 since 1987 (23%).
Delinquency Rate on Business Loans · Quarterly · 1987–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Delinquency Rate on Business Loans — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q2 2026
1.27%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
1.33%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
1.34%
Healthy reading
Q3 2025
1.33%
Healthy reading
Q2 2025
1.29%
Healthy reading
Q1 2025
1.28%
Healthy reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Biz Loan Delinq.?
The Delinquency Rate on Business Loans (FRED: DRBLACBS) measures the percentage of business loans at all commercial banks that are 30 or more days past due. Published quarterly by the Federal Reserve, it captures the share of corporate borrowers having trouble paying. It is a realized measure of credit stress, unlike market prices such as credit spreads.
Business loan delinquency moves with its companion, the charge-off rate (CORBLACBS): loans miss payments first and are written off later, but at the peaks the two have come close together. Charge-offs peaked one quarter after delinquencies in 1991 and 2002, in the same quarter in 2009, and one quarter before them in 2020. At the turns neither has led consistently.
Compared with market-priced measures like the Baa–10yr spread, delinquency is a lagging measure: the spread peaked months before it in three of the four cycles from 1987 to 2020. Its own peak has come in the quarter the recession ended or later, never before. Because the Fed publishes each quarter months later, the peak was known before unemployment peaked only in 1991 and 2002, not in 2009 or 2020. It counts actual missed payments, so market pricing does not move it. Relief programmes can mute it: in 2020 it rose only 0.2 point while unemployment reached 14.8%.
How We Color-Code the Biz Loan Delinq.
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 1.20%
Very low — corporate borrowers almost all current, as in about 1 quarter in 4 since 1987 (26%)
1.20% – 1.80%
Low — healthy credit quality, about 1 quarter in 4 since 1987 (23%)
1.80% – 2.75%
Moderate — some borrower stress but not widespread, about 1 quarter in 5 since 1987 (20%)
2.75% – 4.00%
Elevated — meaningful credit deterioration, about 1 quarter in 8 since 1987 (13%)
4.00% or above
Severe — as in 1987–93 and 2009 (the savings-and-loan era and the 2009 peak); bank credit channel impaired
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Q3 2009GFC Peak Delinquency
4.39%
The GFC drove business loan delinquencies to their highest level since early 1993, as payment failures spread across commercial borrowers.
Q1 2023Post-COVID Trough
0.97%
The post-COVID low; the series' record low is 0.72%, in Q4 2014. Relief programmes — fiscal support, PPP loans and forbearance — kept business loan failures low for several years, so this low is partly their artifact.
Q2 2002Dot-Com / 9-11 Peak
3.92%
The high of the cycle after the dot-com bust. It came two quarters after the 2001 recession ended.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between delinquency and charge-off?
A delinquency occurs when a loan is 30 or more days past due — the borrower has missed payments but the loan has not been written off. A charge-off occurs when the bank formally writes the loan off its books as uncollectible, typically after 90-180 days of non-payment. At the peaks the two have come within a quarter of each other: charge-offs peaked one quarter after delinquencies in 1991 and 2002, in the same quarter in 2009, and one quarter before them in 2020. DRBLACBS measures delinquencies (payment problems); CORBLACBS measures charge-offs (actual realized bank losses). Together they show two stages of the same losses: missed payments and write-offs.
Why does this indicator lag market-priced credit measures?
Market-priced measures like HY spreads or the Baa–10yr spread move every trading day as investors reassess default risk. Loan delinquencies appear in banking data only after months of missed payments, and the Fed publishes each quarter weeks to months later. The Baa spread peaked months before delinquencies in three of the four cycles from 1987 to 2020. Delinquencies peaked in the quarter a recession ended or later in all four. So delinquency confirms stress the market has already priced; what it adds is that it counts actual missed payments.
How does this relate to the 2020 COVID episode?
Despite the deepest quarterly fall in GDP in the record since 1947, in Q2 2020, business loan delinquencies barely rose: from 1.09% at the end of 2019 to 1.30% in Q3 2020. PPP loans, Fed facilities, and widespread forbearance programs meant banks were not recording delinquencies even when borrowers had no cash flow. This is a classic limitation of regulatory delinquency data — support programs can mask the underlying stress. The eventual very low post-COVID delinquency readings (a low of 0.97% in Q1 2023, the lowest of the 2020s) similarly reflect the massive corporate cash infusions rather than organic credit health.
Does this indicator cover all bank loans or just certain types?
DRBLACBS covers business (commercial and industrial) loans at all commercial banks in the US Federal Reserve reporting system. It does not include commercial real estate loans (see DRCRELEXFACBS for that series), consumer loans, or loans at credit unions or non-bank lenders. It is a direct measure of commercial bank exposure to business credit deterioration.
How are this page's colour levels set?
Below 1.20% delinquency is very low: corporate borrowers are almost all current. From 1.20% to 1.80% it is low and business credit quality is healthy. From 1.80% to 2.75% some borrowers are under stress, but not widely. From 2.75% to 4.00% credit is deteriorating in earnest, as at the 2002 peak of 3.92%. At 4.00% or above, delinquency is severe and the bank credit channel is impaired; only 1987–93 and 2009 have read that high (the savings-and-loan era and the 2009 peak). They are fixed levels, set in June 2026 with the series' whole history in view, and they do not move as new data arrives. A rate of 4.00% gets the same colour in 1990 as today, so a change of colour is a change in delinquencies, never in the yardstick.