Producer Price Index (PPI), All Commodities

How It's Calculated

PPI is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) using prices received by domestic producers across approximately 10,000 products and services. The series on this page is the All Commodities index (PPIACO), a goods-only aggregate of crude, intermediate and finished commodity prices. It is more volatile than the headline Final Demand PPI, which also covers services and construction. The YoY rate = (Current month PPI / Same month prior year PPI - 1) × 100. Source: FRED series PPIACO. The turning points on this page are peaks of 8% or more and troughs of −3% or less in the yearly rate, each the highest or lowest reading within 18 months either side. A tie, two months at the same extreme, is one turning point, dated by its first month. CPI's matching turn is its highest or lowest reading within 12 months of it. Stock returns are the S&P 500 total-return index over the twelve months from the first month-end after each PPI release.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED
FRED Series: PPIACO
Updates: Monthly
History: January 1913 to present
Verify this data: FRED: PPIACO →

Monthly values

Producer Price Index (PPI), All Commodities — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

Month	Value	Band
Sep 2026	12.8% YoY	Severe/critical reading
Aug 2026	9.8% YoY	Severe/critical reading
Jul 2026	8.6% YoY	Severe/critical reading
Jun 2026	9.8% YoY	Severe/critical reading
May 2026	12.2% YoY	Severe/critical reading
Apr 2026	9.4% YoY	Severe/critical reading

Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the PPI?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output — essentially the inflation that businesses experience when buying goods and materials. This page tracks the All Commodities index (PPIACO), the goods-only commodity aggregate rather than the headline Final Demand PPI. It swings far more widely than CPI: since 1948 a typical move in its yearly rate has been about twice CPI's (5.6 points against 2.9).

PPI is often said to lead CPI by two or three months. The site's data does not show that lead: the two yearly rates move together month to month, with no lag between their three-month changes. At PPI's 19 big turning points since 1948 it turned before CPI in 9, in the same month in 5, and after CPI in 5. Only 3 of them fit a lead of two or three months — about 1 in 6.

When PPI has run more than 5 points above CPI, consumer inflation has leaned higher, but only leaned. CPI's yearly rate was higher three months later in about 6 of every 10 such months since 1948 (53 of 86). A sharp fall in PPI has been a better guide: after its yearly rate dropped more than 5 points in three months, CPI's yearly rate was lower three months later in about 3 cases in 4 since 1948 (33 of 43).

PPI is also read as a cost gauge for businesses: input costs that cannot be passed on squeeze profit margins, and falling costs widen them. The site holds no margin series, so that link is the mechanism, not a measured record.

How We Color-Code the PPI

Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:

Below −2.0%

Producer deflation — a demand or commodity collapse (2009, 2015–16, 2020 and 2023–24 among them). About 1 month in 6 since 1914 (17%), and about 5 in 10 of those months fell inside a recession (106 of 235)

−2.0% – −1.0%

Falling producer prices — a mild producer deflation, usually the edge of a commodity downturn; rare, about 1 month in 25 since 1914 (55 months)

−1.0% – −0.5%

Slightly falling — commodity prices drifting lower, no pipeline pressure either way; about 1 month in 29 since 1914 (47 months)

−0.5% – 0.0%

Flat — producer prices essentially unchanged on the year; about 1 month in 32 since 1914 (42 months)

0.0% – 1.0%

Low producer inflation — contained costs, about 1 month in 9 since 1914 (11%); consumer inflation ran at a median 1.6% in those months

1.0% – 2.0%

Moderate — modest cost increases, about 1 month in 12 since 1914 (8%); consumer inflation ran at a median 3.0% in those months

2.0% – 3.5%

Elevated — cost pressure building in the commodity pipeline, about 1 month in 9 since 1914 (11%); consumer inflation ran at a median 3.0% in those months

3.5% – 6.0%

High — significant commodity cost inflation, about 1 month in 6 since 1914 (16%); consumer inflation ran at a median 3.5% in those months

Above 6.0%

Very high — about 1 month in 4 since 1914 (26%): the 1970s, the 2000s commodity booms, 2021–22 and 2026. Consumer inflation ran at a median 6.5% in those months

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Nov 2021Post-COVID Supply Shock

+22.7% YoY

The fastest producer inflation since 1974. CPI's yearly rate kept rising for seven more months, to 9.0% in June 2022 — one of only 4 turning points since 1948 where PPI turned more than three months ahead of CPI.

Sep 2015Oil Price Collapse

−8.4% YoY

Producer prices fell as oil collapsed, with PPI between −6% and −8% in every month of 2015. Consumer inflation was near zero the same year: CPI's yearly rate held between −0.2% and +0.2% from January to October.

Apr 2020COVID Demand Collapse

−8.2% YoY

A sharp fall in the lockdown months, quickly reversed as supply chains broke down and demand surged — the start of the rise to the 2021–22 peak.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does PPI lead CPI?

Less than is often said. Producers buy materials first and sell finished goods later, so the logic says their costs reach consumer prices with a lag. On the site's data the two yearly rates move together month to month, with no lag between their three-month changes. At PPI's 19 big turning points since 1948 it turned first in 9, in the same month in 5, and after CPI in 5. Only 3 of them fit a lead of two or three months. PPI's swings are also several times larger than CPI's: the 22.7% PPI peak of November 2021 came with a CPI peak of 9.0%.

What is the difference between PPI and CPI?

PPI measures prices at the producer level — what producers receive for their goods. CPI measures prices at the consumer level — what households pay for finished goods and services. PPI sits earlier in the supply chain and swings far more; CPI is closer to the final consumer and steadier. Housing costs are a major CPI component but have less direct impact on PPI.

Can PPI fall while CPI stays high?

Yes. The all-commodities PPI swings far more than CPI and has fallen while CPI stayed up. Through 2015 PPI ran between −6% and −8% while CPI's yearly rate held near zero, and in June 2023 PPI reached −9.4% while CPI was still above 3%. When PPI's yearly rate has dropped more than 5 points in three months, CPI's yearly rate was lower three months later in about 3 cases in 4 since 1948 (33 of 43). It has said which way consumer inflation leaned, not when it would get there.

Is PPI more or less important than CPI for the Fed?

The Fed's inflation target is set on PCE, not PPI; PPI enters as one of the pipeline measures. On the site's data PPI has not led CPI by a fixed number of months: at its 19 big turning points since 1948 it turned first in 9, and by two or three months in only 3. A hot PPI reading says producer costs are high now, not when consumer inflation will ease. PPI is read more for what it says about business costs than for what the Fed will do.