Data through: October 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Dec 4
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 51st percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Job growth is healthy — between 150K and 300K a month. Since 2023, adding about 25K to 65K jobs a month has been enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. In the 2010s, it took 160K to 225K a month (2011–2019).
REVISION PROFILEPayrolls (the month's change in jobs, in thousands): how the first estimate compared with the value three years later. The economy is in an Expansion now (October 2026). Of the 390 times it was first reported during an Expansion, the middle move was +22k, with half landing between −28k and +77k. It was revised up 62% of the time — 242 of the 389 that moved at all. Across the whole record since 1955, of the 821 first estimates, 483 were later revised up, 336 down and 2 not at all; the middle move was +19k. Revisions Ledger →
Nonfarm Payrolls · Monthly · 1939–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Nonfarm Payrolls — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
+165K
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
+60K
Within normal range
Aug 2026
+186K
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
−10K
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
+31K
Concerning reading
May 2026
+63K
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is Nonfarm Payrolls?
The monthly change in nonfarm payrolls — the "jobs number" — is how many jobs the US economy added or lost in the previous month. It comes out early each month, on a date BLS sets in advance, and is one of the most closely watched releases there is. Markets move a little more than usual on jobs Fridays: the S&P 500's typical move on the 833 of them since 1955 was 0.54%, against 0.47% on all trading days.
It matters because jobs feed paychecks, paychecks feed spending, and the Fed weighs it when setting interest rates. It is the quickest monthly read on the economy's momentum.
How We Color-Code Nonfarm Payrolls
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −100K
Heavy job losses — the pace seen in recessions
−100K – 50K
Weak or falling — hiring has stalled or jobs are being lost
50K – 150K
Slow growth — 50K to 150K a month, 186 months since 1950; a year later unemployment was more often lower (111) than higher (65)
150K – 300K
Healthy job growth — 150K to 300K a month, 336 months since 1950, only 2 of them inside a recession
Above 300K
Very strong job growth — more than 300K jobs a month, about 1 month in 6 since 1950
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 2020COVID Reopening Surge
+4.6M
The biggest one-month job gain ever, as businesses reopened after the COVID shutdowns. It came right after April 2020's −20M, so it was a rebound, not a boom.
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
−20.5M
The biggest one-month job loss in the record since 1939: 20 million jobs gone in a single month as the country shut down for COVID. Unemployment jumped from 4.4% to 14.8% in that one month.
2021-2022Post-COVID Hiring Surge
+545K a month over 18 months
Employers added 545K jobs a month on average from January 2021 to June 2022, and by June 2022 all the jobs lost since February 2020 had been regained. Unemployment fell to 3.4% in April 2023, its lowest since 1969.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the jobs report move markets so dramatically?
Because it feeds straight into what investors expect from the Fed: a strong report pushes expected rate cuts further out, a weak one brings them closer. It also measures the engine of growth itself — jobs mean income, and income means spending. Few releases touch interest rates, growth and consumer spending all at once.
What does "consensus estimate" mean for the jobs report?
Before each report, economists at banks and research firms submit their guesses for the month's job growth. The average of those guesses is the "consensus." Markets react to the gap between the actual number and the consensus. A report of +200K can lift markets if the consensus was +150K, and sink them if it was +250K.
How accurate is the first jobs report estimate?
The first estimate is a draft. The BLS revises the previous two months with each new report, and once a year it re-anchors the whole series to a much fuller count of employers, which can move the level by hundreds of thousands. In the latest of those annual revisions, released on February 11, 2026, the Mar 2025 level moved by −898K. The past ten ranged from −898K to +568K. Markets react to the first estimate, so they sometimes react to a number that later changes a lot.
Which sectors within NFP are most closely watched?
Professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, government, manufacturing and healthcare. The site itself splits payrolls into goods-producing and private service-providing industries, each with its own page and record.
What happens to markets when jobs are much stronger than expected?
The site holds no consensus estimates, so it cannot measure surprises — only what jobs Fridays look like as a whole. On the 833 of them since 1955, the S&P 500's typical move was 0.54%, only a little above the 0.47% of all trading days. "Good news is bad news" is the pattern when a strong report is read as delaying the Fed rate cuts markets had hoped for.