Nonfarm Payrolls

Positive
CURRENT VALUE
+162K
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 4 · Updates: Monthly (first Friday of month)
The three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 100th percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: Job growth is healthy — the economy is adding jobs at a solid pace above the 150K threshold needed to keep unemployment stable. This is the sweet spot of strong labor demand without excessive inflationary pressure.
REVISION PROFILE first print → settled (+3y): median +19 k jobs · lean 482↑ / 335↓ of 819 · in benign months: up-lean (193 of 311) · Revisions Ledger →
Nonfarm Payrolls · Monthly · 1939–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

Nonfarm Payrolls — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Aug 2026+162KHealthy reading
Jul 2026+21KConcerning reading
Jun 2026+31KConcerning reading
May 2026+63KWithin normal range
Apr 2026+148KWithin normal range
Mar 2026+214KHealthy reading

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from nfp_mom. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is Nonfarm Payrolls?

The monthly change in nonfarm payrolls (commonly called the "jobs number" or "NFP report") measures how many jobs were added or lost in the US economy in the prior month. Released on the first Friday of each month, it is arguably the single most market-moving scheduled economic data release — capable of moving stocks, bonds, and currency markets significantly within minutes of publication.

The jobs number matters so much because employment is the engine of consumer spending (which drives 70% of GDP), a key driver of Federal Reserve policy decisions, and a real-time pulse of economic momentum. A strong jobs report can push rate cut expectations later; a weak report can accelerate them. Professional investors, economists, and central bankers watch the NFP release with extraordinary attention.

How We Color-Code Nonfarm Payrolls

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Above +300K
Very strong job growth — economy adding jobs at an exceptional pace
+150K to +300K
Healthy job growth — above the pace needed to absorb new workers
+50K to +150K
Slow growth — barely keeping pace with labor force growth
-100K to +50K
Weak to negative — labor market losing momentum
Below -100K
Significant job losses — recession-level employment contraction

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Jun 2020COVID Reopening Surge
+4.6M
The largest single-month job gain in history as economies reopened from COVID shutdowns. Context matters — this followed a -20M job loss in April 2020.
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
-20.5M
The largest single-month job loss in history — 20 million jobs lost in one month during the COVID shutdown. The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 14.7% in one month.
2021-2022Post-COVID Hiring Surge
Average +500K/month for 18 months
The strongest sustained job creation in modern history — powered by reopening demand and $5+ trillion in fiscal stimulus. Eventually led to the tightest labor market since the 1960s.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current Nonfarm Payrolls reading of +162K (Positive):

Healthy job growth — supportive for consumer spending and broad equity markets
Maintain equity exposure — labor market health supports economic expansion
Monitor wage growth within the report — it determines whether strength is inflationary

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does the jobs report move markets so dramatically?
The NFP report directly influences Federal Reserve expectations — a strong report pushes rate cut expectations later (bad for stocks with expensive valuations), while a weak report accelerates rate cut expectations (good for growth stocks). It also directly measures the economic growth engine (employment = income = spending = GDP). Few monthly releases simultaneously affect interest rate expectations, growth expectations, and consumer spending outlook as directly.
What does "consensus estimate" mean for the jobs report?
Before each NFP release, economists at major banks and research firms submit their estimates for the month's job growth. The average of these estimates is the "consensus." The market reaction depends heavily on whether the actual number beats or misses consensus — a report of +200K jobs might cause markets to rally if consensus was +150K but sell off if consensus was +250K.
How accurate is the first jobs report estimate?
The initial estimate is notoriously subject to revision. The BLS revises the two previous months' data with each new release. Annual benchmark revisions can significantly alter the picture — the 2024 annual revision reduced prior job growth by approximately 818,000 jobs, one of the largest downward revisions in recent history. Markets initially react to the first estimate, which may later be significantly revised.
Which sectors within NFP are most closely watched?
Professional and business services (high-paying jobs), leisure and hospitality (indicates consumer spending on experiences), government (less economically meaningful), manufacturing (cyclical health), and healthcare (defensive, almost always adds jobs). The composition matters as much as the headline — 300K jobs driven by healthcare and government is less economically powerful than 300K in manufacturing and professional services.
What happens to markets when jobs are much stronger than expected?
A large positive surprise typically causes bond yields to rise (pushing rate cuts further away), the dollar to strengthen, and stocks to have a mixed reaction — consumer and cyclical stocks may rise on growth optimism while rate-sensitive growth stocks may fall on rate concerns. The "good news is bad news" dynamic occurs when strong jobs data is seen as delaying Fed easing that markets had hoped for.