Source: FRED: ADPMNUSNERSA (ADP National Employment Report)
Data through: September 2026 · updated Sep 30 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 4
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 24th percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: ADP shows modest hiring — 75K to 125K jobs a month. That has happened in 33 of the 200 months since 2010. Of the 29 old enough to check, unemployment was lower 12 months later in 16 and higher in 12 — close to even.
ADP Private Payrolls · Monthly · 2010–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
ADP Private Payrolls — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+90K
Within normal range
Aug 2026
+36K
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
+44K
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
+95K
Within normal range
May 2026
+122K
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+105K
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from adp_private_payrolls. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the ADP Payrolls?
The ADP National Employment Report counts the monthly change in private-sector jobs from the payroll records of ADP, one of the largest payroll processors. It comes out on the Wednesday before the official BLS jobs report, covers private employers only, and is reported as the net change in jobs in thousands. It is widely watched as a preview of the official figure, but month to month the two are only loosely related: a correlation of 0.58 since 2010, leaving out 2020.
ADP is the first hard count of private hiring each month, two days ahead of the BLS. One important note: in August 2022 ADP replaced its method and re-did its whole history. The figures here are that restated series, from FRED, and they differ a lot from the numbers ADP originally announced — especially in the COVID months, where the restated swings are far smaller.
How We Color-Code the ADP Payrolls
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 0K
Job losses — 21 months since 2010 (2010, 2020–21 and 2023–25); eight of them were in 2020, and none of the others was followed by a recession within a year
0K – 75K
Weak hiring — 0K to 75K a month, 20 months since 2010; of the 12 old enough to check, unemployment was higher a year later in 7 and lower in 5
75K – 125K
Modest hiring — 75K to 125K a month, 33 months since 2010; a year later unemployment was lower in 16 of the 29 old enough to check and higher in 12
125K – 200K
Healthy hiring — 125K to 200K a month, 56 months since 2010; a year later unemployment was lower in nearly all of them (49 of 56)
Above 200K
Strong hiring — above 200K a month, 69 months since 2010; a year later unemployment was lower in about 4 of every 5 of them (56 of 70)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
May 2020COVID-19 — the worst month in the restated series
−1,828K
The worst month in ADP's restated history. When ADP replaced its method in 2022 it re-did the pandemic months with far smaller losses than it had first reported; FRED carries those restated figures, and May 2020 is their low point.
December 2021Post-COVID hiring peak
+947K
The biggest month in the restated series. Three of its four biggest months came between September and December 2021; the fourth was April 2022 (+685K).
August 2022ADP replaces its method
Method overhaul
ADP replaced its method entirely and re-did every past month. The new series is consistent with itself but differs a lot from the numbers originally announced, especially during COVID. Everything on this site uses the restated series.
Frequently Asked Questions
How well does ADP predict the official BLS jobs number?
Only loosely, month to month. Across the 188 months since 2010 (leaving out 2020), the correlation between the two is 0.58. The typical gap between them has been 58K. They were within 50,000 of each other in 40% of those months and within 100,000 in 67%, with ADP above the BLS figure about as often as below. Over a year they nearly always agree on direction: their twelve-month totals had the same sign in 185 of 188 months since 2010, through August 2026. One caution: in August 2022 ADP replaced its method and re-did its whole history. The pre-2022 figures on FRED are the restated ones, and they differ a lot from what ADP originally announced. The difference is biggest in the COVID months, where the restated swings are far smaller than the original reports or the BLS data.
What is the key difference between ADP Private Payrolls and the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Scope, first of all: ADP counts private workers only, while the BLS headline includes government workers too. Government jobs move a lot on their own — by 25K or more in 81 of the 187 months since 2010 (leaving out 2020), through August 2026 — so the BLS total swings more than the private figure. The method differs too: ADP counts actual paychecks it processes, while the BLS surveys employers. Both are watched because they see the job market from different angles.
What monthly ADP number does the Federal Reserve consider consistent with a stable unemployment rate?
The site holds no Fed estimate, so it measures its own. Since 2023, ADP gains of about 34K to 59K a month have gone with a steady unemployment rate. In 2011–2019 it took 141K to 186K a month.
Why does ADP sometimes differ sharply from the BLS, and what does a big gap mean?
Because they count differently. ADP counts the paychecks that pass through its own system; the BLS surveys a broader sample of employers. Different seasonal adjustments, different pay-period timing and different ways of handling new and closed businesses all add to the gap. The BLS number is the official one. Whether a big gap foreshadows a BLS revision cannot be checked on this site, which holds no first estimates of the private series.
How does ADP Private Payrolls relate to other employment indicators tracked on this site?
The site reads ADP alongside Nonfarm Payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims and the Sahm Rule. ADP is the Wednesday preview, the BLS report follows on Friday, and jobless claims arrive weekly in between. When the two payroll counts disagree in a month, the longer view has almost always agreed: their twelve-month totals had the same sign in 185 of 188 months since 2010, through August 2026.