USMacro reads the U.S. economy by fixed rules — where it stands, what’s building underneath, and what its own record says about moments like this.
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Counted on November 8, 2026.
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We built USMacro to answer one question for ourselves: where is the U.S. economy, where is it heading, and what happened the last time it looked like this?
The tools we found did one of two things. Some showed the data — thousands of series, a chart for each, and the reading left to us. Others sold a forecast — a probability, a call, a model we couldn’t see inside. Neither answered the question.
So we built the layer in between. USMacro takes 115 public indicators; 43 of them, with a few series it does not chart, feed composites. Three composites read the whole economy, and others read its pillars and the market. Each one is rules-based, each tested against its own history, and none of them is a forecast. Every composite comes with its record: each time the economy looked like this before, listed, with what followed. That is the site: not the data, and not a prediction, but what the data adds up to, shown with its evidence.
Four rules, applied everywhere:
Every composite and regime label is set in advance and published on its methodology page. The heatmap’s thresholds are published on each indicator page — fixed levels for most, and for eleven housing and money-fund series the quintiles of their own history up to the reading being coloured.
A reading is judged against the series’ own history — its percentile, its thresholds, its past episodes — never against a narrative.
The site says how many times something happened and what followed. It states no forecast or probability of its own; two heatmap cells relay others’ — the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow and the Chauvet–Piger smoothed recession probability (via FRED).
Where history has been revised, the State of the Economy and Valuations use first-published values as far as the archives reach, and measure how far that is. Every record on the site reads each figure only once it had been published. They are the State of the Economy’s, the Capitulation Monitor’s rail, Confluence’s register, the windows behind Valuations and Profit Share, the Economic Breadth and Housing records and the heatmap’s Time Machine. The heatmap’s Time Machine reads this way on days the site has no record of its live page. Each reads a figure at the value published by then where an archive covers the series, at today’s value otherwise.
Every number traces to its source. Each indicator page names its provider and series and shows the update cadence. It links to the source’s own page wherever one exists; where none does, it says why. The data is published by the Federal Reserve, the BLS, the BEA, the Census Bureau, the OECD and others — 31 providers — and retrieved daily. USMacro adds the rules and the arithmetic — year-over-year changes, spreads, two constructed series — not the data. The heatmap’s five colours come from thresholds stated on the indicator pages — fixed levels for most; for 11 series, the quintiles of their own history up to the reading.
Anyone who reads the economy to make decisions — investors positioning capital, professionals who want the backdrop before the detail. And students: if you are studying economics, this is the theory applied to the real thing — the actual series, the actual thresholds, the actual record of what followed. It assumes you want the reasoning, not just the colour: every page shows its method and its record, and the vocabulary is precise on purpose. USMacro is not a trading platform, a screener or an advisor.
No account, no paywall, no ads. Everything on the site is free to read; every sourced number is checkable at its source, and the site’s own computations are explained on their pages.
USMacro began as a heatmap and became a set of rules-based readings of the economy, its pillars and the market. What shipped, in order; updated as capabilities ship.
Privacy: no tracking cookies, no cross-day tracking — analytics are anonymous and aggregated daily.