Source: FRED: PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Data through: August 2026 · updated Oct 1 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 29
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 36th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: The trimmed centre of the basket is inflating at a rate consistent with the Fed's target — between 1.5% and 2.75%, where a trimmed mean near 2¼% matches 2% headline PCE; about 6 months in 10 since 1978 (334 of 584). Whatever headline inflation is doing, the broad middle is behaving.
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation · Monthly · 1978–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
+2.2% YoY
Within normal range
Jul 2026
+2.3% YoY
Within normal range
Jun 2026
+2.3% YoY
Within normal range
May 2026
+2.4% YoY
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+2.4% YoY
Within normal range
Mar 2026
+2.4% YoY
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from trimmed_mean_pce. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Trimmed Mean PCE?
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate, produced by the Dallas Fed, measures underlying inflation by discarding the most extreme price changes in the PCE basket each month and averaging what remains. The trim removes the 24% of spending with the largest price drops and the 31% with the largest increases. The FRED series (PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL) is published directly as a 12-month inflation rate, so it is displayed here as-is.
Where core PCE excludes the same two categories (food and energy) every month by assumption, the trimmed mean excludes whatever is actually extreme that month. If used-car prices spike 40% (as in 2021), core PCE keeps them; the trimmed mean throws them out. This makes it a robust measure of the centre of inflation — less noisy than core PCE and largely immune to single-category distortions.
Fed policymakers cite it for that robustness. In 2021 it moved later than core PCE, as the trim is meant to: core PCE passed 3% in April 2021 on the used-car spike, and the trimmed mean did not until November — by then the pressure was broad. Through the 2023–24 disinflation it fell from 4.9% to 2.9%, showing the improvement was broad rather than a few categories pulling the average down. On this site's series it has run level with core PCE on average since 1978 — above it in the 1990s and 2000s, below it in the 1980s and 2020s, and a tenth of a point above since 1998. The Dallas Fed puts a trimmed mean near 2¼% at the 2% headline PCE target.
How We Color-Code the Trimmed Mean PCE
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 1.0%
Deflation risk — below 1%, seen in only 9 months since 1978, April to December 2010
1.0% – 1.5%
Below target — 1% to 1.5%, broad disinflation; only 15 months since 1978, in 2009–11, 2013 and 2015
1.5% – 2.75%
Healthy — 1.5% to 2.75%, around the 2¼% level that matches the Fed's 2% target; about 6 months in 10 since 1978 (334 of 584)
2.75% – 4.0%
Elevated — 2.75% to 4%, the trimmed centre of the basket clearly above target; about 1 month in 4 since 1978 (134 of 584)
Above 4.0%
Broad hot inflation — above 4%, about 1 month in 6 since 1978 (92 of 584), in 1978–83, 1988–90 and 2022–23; pressure across the whole basket
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 1980Series Peak
+8.7% YoY
The all-time high, at the crest of the second oil shock. Even after trimming the most extreme categories, the center of the basket was inflating near 9% — proof the spiral was economy-wide, not an energy artifact. Volcker's tightening followed.
Aug 2022Post-COVID Peak
+4.8% YoY
The modern-era high. By mid-2022 the trimmed mean reached 5% — decisive evidence that inflation had broadened far beyond reopening categories like airfares and used cars.
Oct 2010Post-GFC Low
+0.8% YoY
The all-time low. The deleveraging economy pushed even the trimmed center of the basket below 1%, feeding deflation fears and underpinning QE2.
Jan 2015Lowflation Era
+1.5% YoY
The persistent sub-target regime of the mid-2010s: collapsing oil prices and a strong dollar kept the trimmed mean near 1.5% for years, delaying Fed liftoff to December 2015 — one 25bp hike, then a full year's pause.
Jun 1997Goldilocks Expansion
+2.2% YoY
Almost exactly the level consistent with the Fed's (later formalized) 2% target, in the middle of the 1990s productivity boom — the benchmark for what "on-target" broad inflation looks like.
Jun 2004Mid-Cycle Normal
+2.3% YoY
A textbook mid-expansion reading as the Fed began its measured 2004-06 hiking cycle. The trimmed mean sat near the series median (2.4%) while the housing boom built — normal on the surface, with the excess showing up in credit, not consumer prices.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the trimmed mean different from core PCE?
Core PCE always excludes the same two categories — food and energy — regardless of what is actually driving inflation that month. The trimmed mean excludes whatever is extreme each month: the ~24% of spending with the biggest price declines and ~31% with the biggest increases. In 2021 core PCE ran well above the trimmed mean, by more than a point in every month from April to December. Extreme price rises in a few items, such as used cars, pushed it up, and core PCE keeps them. The trimmed mean discarded them and gave a cleaner read on how broad the pressure was.
Why are the trim percentages asymmetric (24% lower, 31% upper)?
The Dallas Fed chose the trim points empirically: they are the cut-offs that best tracked the underlying trend of headline PCE inflation — its average over the surrounding few years — in past data. Because the distribution of monthly price changes is right-skewed (big price spikes are more common than big declines), the optimal trim removes more from the top than the bottom.
What level of trimmed mean is consistent with the Fed's 2% target?
The Dallas Fed puts a trimmed mean near 2¼% at the 2% headline PCE target. Against core PCE, which this site stores, the trimmed mean has run level on average since 1978 and a tenth of a point above since 1998. The site holds no headline PCE series to check the 2¼% figure itself.
Is this series revised?
Yes — it inherits revisions from the underlying BEA PCE data, and the Dallas Fed recalculates the trim each month. Revisions are usually small (a tenth or two). This site re-fetches recent history on every update, so revisions are absorbed automatically.
How are this page's colour levels set?
Four levels set the colours. 1.5% and 2.75% bound the healthy range, around the 2¼% trimmed mean that the Dallas Fed puts at the Fed's 2% target. Above 2.75% the trimmed centre of the basket is clearly above target; above 4% inflation is hot across the whole basket. On the low side, below 1.5% is broad disinflation, below target, and below 1% is deflation risk. Both ends are coloured as problems, because persistently high and persistently low inflation both do damage. They are fixed levels, set in July 2026 with the series' whole history in view, and they do not move as new data arrives. A reading above 4% gets the same colour in 1980 as today, so a change of colour is a change in the trimmed mean, never in the yardstick.