Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 29 · Updates: Monthly
Historical context: Currently in the 82nd percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: The G7 CLI is mildly above trend — developed-market growth is running a little above its long-run pace, as in about 3 months in 10 since 1959 (243 of 813).
G7 Composite Leading Indicator · Monthly · 1959–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
G7 Composite Leading Indicator — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
100.9
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
100.9
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
100.8
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
100.7
Healthy reading
May 2026
100.6
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
100.5
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the G7 CLI (OECD)?
The G7 CLI (OECD series G7.M.LI...AA...H; FRED: G7LOLITOAASTSAM) is the OECD's Composite Leading Indicator for the Group of Seven economies. Those are the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Japan, and the index is amplitude-adjusted to a reference series indexed to 100. Unlike raw economic data, the CLI is built to turn ahead of the growth cycle — the periods when growth runs above or below its long-run trend.
The 100 pivot point is fundamental to interpreting this indicator: 100 represents the long-run average trend growth rate. A reading above 100 means G7 economies are growing above their long-run average (above-trend expansion). A reading below 100 means growth is below the long-run trend (a slowdown or contraction). The distance from 100 matters, not just the direction.
Each country's CLI is built from 6 to 10 leading series specific to that country. They include manufacturing orders, business confidence surveys, residential construction permits, the yield curve, long-short interest rate spreads and share prices. The OECD then aggregates these into a G7 composite, amplitude-adjusting to have a common scale, with data back to 1959.
In the site's Forward Stress gauge the G7 CLI is the global growth leg: a falling CLI means developed-market growth is losing momentum. The site holds no series on emerging-market demand, world trade or corporate earnings, so it makes no claim about what follows them.
How We Color-Code the G7 CLI (OECD)
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 98.5
Well below trend — rare, about 1 month in 14 since 1959 (57 of 813). Most of those months fell inside a US recession (39 of 57)
98.5 – 99.7
Below trend — about 3 months in 10 since 1959 (228 of 813). A fall into this band from trend came before a US recession within a year once through August 2026, in 2001
99.7 – 100.3
At trend — growth at its long-run average pace, about 1 month in 5 since 1959 (159 of 813)
100.3 – 101.0
Mildly above trend — about 3 months in 10 since 1959 (243 of 813)
Above 101.0
Above trend — growth well above its long-run pace, about 1 month in 6 since 1959 (126 of 813); 3 of those months fell inside a US recession
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Feb 2009GFC Trough
95.1
The lowest reading between 1959 and the COVID shock; only April and May 2020 went lower. The US unemployment rate peaked eight months later, at 10.0% in October 2009.
Jul 2021Post-COVID Recovery Peak
101.7
The fastest recovery on the record: the index rose 8.8 points in the twelve months after its April 2020 low, against 5.0 after January 1975 and 4.8 after February 2009. It peaked at 101.7 in July 2021, the highest since September 2007 and well under the record of 104.0 in January 1973.
Apr 2020COVID Shock Trough
92.4
The record low. The index dropped 6.7 points in two months to April 2020, against a worst two-month fall of 1.6 points in 2008. It was back above 100 within nine months, against thirteen after the 2009 low.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "amplitude adjusted" mean?
The raw CLI for each country has a different average volatility. Amplitude adjustment rescales each country's CLI so that its historical swings share a common size, which makes the aggregated G7 index comparable across members. After adjustment, each unit of deviation from 100 represents a comparable magnitude of above/below-trend activity across countries. This is what allows the 100 pivot point to be a universal reference.
How does the G7 CLI differ from the US LEI?
The US indicator on this site (the OECD US CLI, FRED: USALOLITOAASTSAM) is the same OECD methodology applied to the US alone — it is displayed as a month-over-month change on this site. The G7 CLI aggregates the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. The G7 CLI describes the developed-market growth cycle as a whole, while the US indicator is domestic only. Both are OECD composite leading indicators.
Is there a lag in the G7 CLI data?
Yes. The OECD publishes the G7 CLI about two weeks after the month it describes; the September 2026 figure arrived on October 15, 2026. It also revises recent months heavily: of the 33 first prints the site has archived since early 2024, 32 were later changed, the largest by 1.0 points (March 2025, from 100.6 to 99.6). By today's figures the index's low came in the last five months of each of the 9 US recessions since 1960. Whether those lows were visible at the time cannot be checked here: the site holds the OECD's first prints only from 2024, and the site holds no series that dates GDP turning points.
What has the G7 CLI said about the US economy?
It describes the developed world's growth cycle, of which the US is the largest part. On the site's data from 1959 to August 2026, a fall below trend came before a US recession within a year once, in 2001; nine such falls came with no recession, and five arrived after one had begun. Readings below 98.5 are rare (57 of 813 months) and have mostly come with a recession already under way: 6 of the 7 periods below that line overlapped one. The site holds no series on corporate earnings or emerging-market growth, so it makes no claim about them.