Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 12 · Updates: Monthly
Historical context: Currently in the 81th percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: G7 CLI is mildly above trend — healthy momentum in developed economies. Global growth is supporting the macro backdrop for US earnings and credit conditions.
G7 Composite Leading Indicator · Monthly · 1959–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
G7 Composite Leading Indicator — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
100.9
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
100.8
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
100.7
Healthy reading
May 2026
100.6
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
100.6
Healthy reading
Mar 2026
100.5
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from g7_cli. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the G7 CLI (OECD)?
The G7 CLI (OECD series G7.M.LI...AA...H; FRED: G7LOLITOAASTSAM) is the OECD's Composite Leading Indicator for the Group of Seven economies (US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan), amplitude-adjusted to a reference series indexed to 100. Unlike raw economic data, the CLI is specifically designed to signal turning points in the growth cycle — periods when growth is above or below its long-run trend.
The 100 pivot point is fundamental to interpreting this indicator: 100 represents the long-run average trend growth rate. A reading above 100 means G7 economies are growing above their long-run average (above-trend expansion). A reading below 100 means growth is below the long-run trend (a slowdown or contraction). The distance from 100 matters, not just the direction.
Each country's CLI is built from 6-10 leading economic indicators specific to that country — manufacturing orders, business confidence surveys, residential construction permits, yield curve, long-short interest rate spreads, and share prices. The OECD then aggregates these into a G7 composite, amplitude-adjusting to have a common scale. With data back to 1959, this series captures more than a dozen complete economic cycles.
For Forward Stress analysis, the G7 CLI provides the global growth dimension: a declining CLI tells you that the developed-market growth engine is losing momentum, which typically feeds through to EM demand, global trade, and ultimately US earnings and credit conditions.
How We Color-Code the G7 CLI (OECD)
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
At-trend growth — G7 at long-run average pace; balanced risk, watch direction
98.5 – 99.7
Below-trend growth — G7 economies decelerating; slowdown risk rising, some early recessionary signals
< 98.5
Significantly below trend — contraction conditions; consistent with recession in multiple G7 economies
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2009-04-01GFC Trough
95.4
The deepest G7 CLI reading in modern history — the GFC caused simultaneous recession across virtually all major developed economies. The US, EU, Japan, and UK all contracted together, something not seen since the Great Depression.
2021-05-01Post-COVID Recovery Peak
101.5
Extraordinary fiscal stimulus across G7 economies (CARES Act, EU Recovery Fund, UK furlough scheme) drove the fastest synchronised recovery on record. The CLI surged above 104 — well above any prior post-war reading — before normalizing as stimulus faded.
2020-04-01COVID Shock Trough
92.4
COVID lockdowns caused the fastest G7 growth collapse in history. The CLI fell more sharply than 2009 in terms of speed but recovered far faster as vaccines and fiscal policy drove a historic rebound.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current G7 CLI (OECD) reading of 100.9 (Positive):
✓Above-trend G7 growth supportive of risk assets and global trade
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "amplitude adjusted" mean?
The raw CLI for each country has different average volatility — Germany's CLI swings more than Japan's, for example. Amplitude adjustment rescales each country's CLI so that historical oscillations have a common amplitude, making the aggregated G7 index more interpretable. After adjustment, each unit of deviation from 100 represents a comparable magnitude of above/below-trend activity across countries. This is what allows the 100 pivot point to be a universal reference.
How does the G7 CLI differ from the US LEI?
The US indicator on this site (the OECD US CLI, FRED: USALOLITOAASTSAM) is the same OECD methodology applied to the US alone — it's displayed as a MoM change on this dashboard. The G7 CLI aggregates the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. The G7 CLI tells you whether the global developed-market growth engine is expanding or contracting, while the US LEI is purely domestic. Both are OECD composite leading indicators; the G7 version captures global demand conditions that feed back into the US through trade and credit channels.
Is there a lag in the G7 CLI data?
Yes — like most OECD composite indicators, the G7 CLI is typically released with a 1-2 month lag. The "current" reading represents economic conditions 4-8 weeks prior. Despite this lag, the CLI is still considered a leading indicator because its components (orders, surveys, financial conditions) themselves lead economic output. The CLI's turning points typically appear 3-6 months before official GDP data reflects the same trend.
Why does the G7 CLI matter for US investors?
The US is deeply integrated into the global economy — roughly 40% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets. When G7 growth slows, US multinationals face headwinds in their largest non-US markets. Additionally, EM economies depend heavily on G7 demand; a G7 slowdown typically precedes EM deceleration, reducing demand for US exports and tightening EM credit conditions. The G7 CLI's 3-6 month lead time makes it a useful early warning for US corporate earnings revisions.