USMacroBETA

Methodology

How USMacro works: the standards every feature on this site is held to, and the detailed methodology behind each one.

THE ECONOMY'S STATE

State of the Economy — Methodology
How the site decides what state the economy is in.
Economic Breadth — Methodology
How many parts of the economy are moving, not how much.
Housing Cycle — Methodology
Where the housing sector sits in its own cycle, and what its record shows.
Regime Playbooks — Methodology
What happened the last times the economy looked like this.
Indicator Heatmap — Methodology
How the 118 indicators are chosen, colored, and kept honest.

MARKETS & VALUATION

Valuation Eras — Methodology
How expensive the market is, measured against its own history.
Excess CAPE Yield — Methodology
Stocks versus real bond yields — the two-sided value question.
Capitulation Monitor — Methodology
How the site recognizes a market washout while it is happening.
Market Relationships — Methodology
The classic market pairs, tested instead of assumed.
Confluence — Methodology
Months that read like today, and what followed them.

PROFITS

Corporate Profit Share — Methodology
Where profit margins sit against their own long trend.
Where the Profits Come From — Methodology
Every dollar of corporate profit, traced to its source.

DATA TRUST

Revisions Ledger — Methodology
How much first-print data changes before it settles.
The principles

Every feature on this site follows the same rules. Each feature’s own methodology page documents how they apply in detail — these are the commitments they share.

Historical record, never a forecast. Everything on this site describes what is and what has been — the current state of the economy, the full history of past episodes, where today’s readings sit against historical ranges. Nothing on this site predicts. A reading at a level historically associated with stress means exactly that, and no more.

Not a trading signal. No page tells you when to buy or sell. The site shows the macro backdrop against which investment decisions are made; the decisions are yours.

Point-in-time honesty. Where the site says “this is what was knowable at the time,” it means it: historical views use the data as originally published, not as later revised. The Time Machine, the State of the Economy’s point-in-time timeline, and the Regime Playbooks are all built on this basis — and where first-print and revised history disagree, the site says so.

Counts, never probabilities. Where the site reports what followed past episodes, it reports counts of named, checkable events — never percentages or odds. Small historical samples don’t support probability language, so the site won’t manufacture it.