M2 Money Supply

Positive
CURRENT VALUE
+5.4% YoY
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
Data through: July 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Monthly (released ~4 weeks after month end)
The three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 32th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: M2 growth is healthy — monetary conditions are supportive of economic activity.
M2 Money Supply · Monthly · 1959–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

M2 Money Supply — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Jul 2026+5.4% YoYHealthy reading
Jun 2026+5.3% YoYHealthy reading
May 2026+5.4% YoYHealthy reading
Apr 2026+4.5% YoYHealthy reading
Mar 2026+4.4% YoYHealthy reading
Feb 2026+4.6% YoYHealthy reading

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from m2_money_supply_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the M2 YoY?

M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, and small time deposits. When M2 grows rapidly, more money is chasing goods and services — often leading to inflation. When M2 contracts year-over-year, it has historically been one of the most reliable recession predictors. M2 contraction preceded every major recession since WWII.

How We Color-Code the M2 YoY

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Above +8% YoY
Rapid money supply growth — highly stimulative, potential inflation risk.
+4% to +8% YoY
Healthy money supply growth supporting economic activity.
0% to +4% YoY
Moderate growth — in line with historical long-term average.
-2% to 0% YoY
Money supply contracting — historically associated with economic slowdowns.
Below -2% YoY
Significant contraction — has preceded every recession since WWII.

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Feb 2021COVID Stimulus Peak
+27% YoY
Unprecedented money printing during pandemic response.
Dec 2022Post-Stimulus Contraction
-1.3% YoY
First YoY M2 contraction since 1930s — recession signal.
2009Recovery
+8% YoY
QE-driven money supply expansion during GFC recovery.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current M2 YoY reading of +5.4% YoY (Positive):

Favorable monetary backdrop for equities and growth assets
Normal conditions — no special action needed

Frequently Asked Questions

What is M2 money supply?
M2 includes all of M1 (cash and checking deposits) plus savings deposits, money market mutual funds, and small time deposits under $100,000. It represents the total amount of easily accessible money in the economy.
Why does M2 contraction predict recessions?
When M2 contracts, less money is circulating through the economy. Businesses and consumers have less cash available, leading to reduced spending, investment, and hiring. Every post-WWII recession was preceded by M2 growth slowing or turning negative.
What happened to M2 during COVID?
M2 grew an extraordinary +27% YoY in early 2021 due to massive stimulus checks, Fed bond purchases (QE), and bank lending. This money supply surge was a major driver of the 2021-2023 inflation surge. M2 then contracted as the Fed raised rates aggressively.
How does M2 relate to inflation?
The quantity theory of money states that rapid money supply growth eventually causes inflation if economic output does not grow proportionally. The 2020-2021 M2 surge of $5 trillion in 18 months was a key cause of the highest inflation in 40 years.
What is a healthy M2 growth rate?
Historically, M2 growth of 4-8% YoY is considered healthy — fast enough to support economic growth and mild inflation without overheating. The long-term average before COVID was approximately 6% annually.