Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 28 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 24
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 37th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: M2 growth is healthy — monetary conditions are supportive of economic activity.
M2 Money Supply · Monthly · 1959–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
M2 Money Supply — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+5.7% YoY
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
+5.6% YoY
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
+5.4% YoY
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+5.3% YoY
Healthy reading
May 2026
+5.4% YoY
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
+4.5% YoY
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the M2 YoY?
M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, and small time deposits. When M2 grows rapidly, more money is chasing goods and services — often leading to inflation. M2 has contracted year-over-year once in the record on this site since 1960: from December 2022 to February 2024, reaching −4.66% in April 2023. No recession followed, and none of the nine recessions since 1960 was preceded by a contraction.
How We Color-Code the M2 YoY
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
−2.0% or below
Significant contraction — reached once in the record since 1960, February 2023 to January 2024 (trough −4.66% in April 2023); no recession followed.
−2.0% – 0.0%
Money supply contracting — entered only in December 2022–January 2023 and February 2024; no recession followed.
0.0% – 4.0%
Moderate growth — below the 1960–2019 average of 6.8%.
4.0% – 8.0%
Money supply growth in its long-run range (the 1960–2019 median was 6.7%).
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Feb 2021COVID Stimulus Peak
+27% YoY
Unprecedented money printing during pandemic response.
Apr 2023Post-Stimulus Contraction
−4.7% YoY
The deepest month of the only year-over-year contraction in the record since 1960 (December 2022 to February 2024); no recession followed.
Jan 2009Recovery
+10% YoY
QE-driven money supply expansion during GFC recovery.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is M2 money supply?
M2 is M1 — currency, checking deposits and, since 2020, savings deposits — plus small time deposits under $100,000 and balances in retail money market funds. It represents the total amount of easily accessible money in the economy.
Does M2 contraction predict recessions?
Not in this record. When M2 contracts, less money is circulating through the economy, and businesses and consumers have less cash available for spending, investment, and hiring. But the year-over-year series was never at or below zero from 1960 until December 2022, so none of the nine recessions since 1960 was preceded by a contraction. The lowest reading in the year before any of them was still positive. The one contraction through August 2026, December 2022 to February 2024, was followed by no recession.
What happened to M2 during COVID?
M2 grew an extraordinary +27% YoY in early 2021 due to massive stimulus checks, Fed bond purchases (QE), and bank lending. Inflation followed: it peaked 16 months later, in June 2022, at its fastest pace since 1981. How much of that the money surge caused is debated, and from 1990 to 2019 faster M2 growth did not come before higher inflation. M2 then contracted as the Fed raised rates aggressively.
How does M2 relate to inflation?
The quantity theory of money states that rapid money supply growth eventually causes inflation if economic output does not grow proportionally. M2 rose by about $5 trillion from February 2020 to August 2021. Inflation then rose to its fastest pace in 40 years. Economists still debate how much the one caused the other.
What is a healthy M2 growth rate?
There is no official target. In the site's data, M2 grew 4% to 8% a year in a little over half of all months from 1960 to 2019 (55%). Two years after those months, consumer prices were rising by a median 2.8% a year. After months of faster money growth, the median was 4.3%. The long-term average before COVID (1960–2019) was 6.8% annually.