Data through: July 2026 · updated Aug 26 · Updates: Monthly (released ~4 weeks after month end)
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 32th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: M2 growth is healthy — monetary conditions are supportive of economic activity.
M2 Money Supply · Monthly · 1959–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
M2 Money Supply — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Jul 2026
+5.4% YoY
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+5.3% YoY
Healthy reading
May 2026
+5.4% YoY
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
+4.5% YoY
Healthy reading
Mar 2026
+4.4% YoY
Healthy reading
Feb 2026
+4.6% YoY
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from m2_money_supply_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the M2 YoY?
M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, and small time deposits. When M2 grows rapidly, more money is chasing goods and services — often leading to inflation. When M2 contracts year-over-year, it has historically been one of the most reliable recession predictors. M2 contraction preceded every major recession since WWII.
How We Color-Code the M2 YoY
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Moderate growth — in line with historical long-term average.
-2% to 0% YoY
Money supply contracting — historically associated with economic slowdowns.
Below -2% YoY
Significant contraction — has preceded every recession since WWII.
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Feb 2021COVID Stimulus Peak
+27% YoY
Unprecedented money printing during pandemic response.
Dec 2022Post-Stimulus Contraction
-1.3% YoY
First YoY M2 contraction since 1930s — recession signal.
2009Recovery
+8% YoY
QE-driven money supply expansion during GFC recovery.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current M2 YoY reading of +5.4% YoY (Positive):
✓Favorable monetary backdrop for equities and growth assets
ℹNormal conditions — no special action needed
Frequently Asked Questions
What is M2 money supply?
M2 includes all of M1 (cash and checking deposits) plus savings deposits, money market mutual funds, and small time deposits under $100,000. It represents the total amount of easily accessible money in the economy.
Why does M2 contraction predict recessions?
When M2 contracts, less money is circulating through the economy. Businesses and consumers have less cash available, leading to reduced spending, investment, and hiring. Every post-WWII recession was preceded by M2 growth slowing or turning negative.
What happened to M2 during COVID?
M2 grew an extraordinary +27% YoY in early 2021 due to massive stimulus checks, Fed bond purchases (QE), and bank lending. This money supply surge was a major driver of the 2021-2023 inflation surge. M2 then contracted as the Fed raised rates aggressively.
How does M2 relate to inflation?
The quantity theory of money states that rapid money supply growth eventually causes inflation if economic output does not grow proportionally. The 2020-2021 M2 surge of $5 trillion in 18 months was a key cause of the highest inflation in 40 years.
What is a healthy M2 growth rate?
Historically, M2 growth of 4-8% YoY is considered healthy — fast enough to support economic growth and mild inflation without overheating. The long-term average before COVID was approximately 6% annually.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1What is the current M2 money supply level and how is it trending?
U.S. M2 money supply rose by $102.8 billion in July to reach a new high of $23.22 trillion, with the current reading at 23218.0 billion. This marks the 27th straight month of expansion and stands $1.43 trillion higher than the prior peak from March 2022.
2How has M2 grown since the beginning of 2026?
Since the start of 2026 alone, M2 has increased by $862.7 billion. M2 stands at $23.2T in the July 2026 report, growing 5.4% a year against a 6.6% median since 1960.
3How does current M2 growth compare to historical rates and how does it relate to inflation?
US M2 money supply is rising at the fastest pace in five years, and the last time money supply accelerated this rapidly, inflation followed with a lag. M2 exploded over 25% during the 2020-2021 stimulus — the fastest since WWII — then outright contracted in 2022-2023 for the first time since the 1930s.
4What do recent investor surveys show about expectations amid rising money supply?
Most investors expect stagflation—weak growth combined with high inflation—over the next 12 months, with 49% expecting stagflation, up from 47% in July, according to Bank of America's August survey.
5Is rapid M2 growth automatically inflationary?
Monetarist theory ties sustained rapid M2 growth to inflation, but velocity matters: a large money stock that isn't circulating need not be inflationary. M2's relationship to inflation has proven loose and variable over time, as the velocity of money shifts enough that money growth and inflation can diverge for long stretches.