Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 30 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 29
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 17th percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: Real income ex-transfers is within 1% of the year before — barely growing or stalling. This band has held 96 of 800 months since 1960, 33 of them inside a recession. Of the 17 falls into it from above since 1960, 1 came before a recession within a year on the figures as first reported (1981), and 8 came with none under way or within a year. The NBER reads this series, with payrolls, production and real spending, when it dates recessions.
Real Personal Income · Monthly · 1959–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Real Personal Income — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
+0.8% YoY
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
+0.9% YoY
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
+1.1% YoY
Within normal range
May 2026
+0.7% YoY
Concerning reading
Apr 2026
+0.2% YoY
Concerning reading
Mar 2026
+0.8% YoY
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from real_personal_income_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Real Personal Income?
Real Personal Income Excluding Current Transfer Receipts (FRED: W875RX1) measures inflation-adjusted personal income with all government transfer payments removed. Transfer receipts include Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, unemployment insurance, veterans benefits, stimulus checks, and other direct government payments to individuals.
What remains after stripping transfers is organic, market-based income: wages and salaries, proprietors' income, rental income, dividends, and interest. This is the income that reflects the true health of the labor market and the private economy — not the artificial smoothing of government support.
Along with nonfarm payrolls, industrial production and real consumer spending, this series is one of the four coincident indicators the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reads when it dates US recessions. It is displayed here as a year-over-year percent change; the level itself rises over time with economic growth and says little on its own.
Why excluding transfers matters: the 2020 recession is the textbook example. In April 2020 total personal income rose, because the CARES Act payments and expanded unemployment benefits more than offset the collapse in wages. The ex-transfer measure showed the shock. Payrolls fell by 21.9 million over March and April 2020, and real income ex-transfers fell 5.9% from the year before in April (first published as −7.2%). The headline figure hid it.
How We Color-Code the Real Personal Income
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −1.0%
Real contraction — income more than 1% below the year before. Uncommon: 52 of 800 months since 1960, 25 of them inside a recession. Six of the nine recessions since 1960 reached this level
−1.0% – 1.0%
Stalling — income within 1% of the year before. Not rare: about 1 month in 8 since 1960 (96 of 800), 33 of them inside a recession
1.0% – 3.0%
Sluggish — growth between 1% and 3%, about 1 month in 4 since 1960 (216 of 800), 29 of them inside a recession
3.0% – 5.0%
Healthy growth — between 3% and 5%, around and above the 3.2% long-run median; the most common reading, 290 of 800 months since 1960
Above 5.0%
Strong growth — 5% or more, about 1 month in 5 since 1960 (146 of 800)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Nov 2009GFC trough
−6.3%
The deepest fall in the series. Unemployment peaked at 10.0% in October 2009.
Apr 2020COVID shutdown (ex-transfers)
−5.8%
Real labor income fell 5.9% from the year before, yet headline personal income rose the same month: the CARES Act payments and expanded unemployment benefits more than offset the lost wages. Ex-transfers shows the shock the headline hid.
Dec 19741973–75 oil-shock recession
−4.0%
A stagflation recession: real incomes eroded by the oil embargo and double-digit inflation even as nominal wages rose.
Nov 1972Early-1970s expansion peak
+8.3%
The peak of the early-1970s expansion, before the oil shock.
Sep 1984Reagan-era recovery peak
+8.4%
Strong real income growth in the recovery after 1982, with inflation well down from its early-1980s peak.
Apr 2021Post-COVID reopening surge
+11.6%
The highest reading in the series, a base effect: it is measured against April 2020's collapse, not a sign of income strength.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why exclude transfer receipts?
Government transfer payments — stimulus checks, unemployment insurance, Social Security, etc. — can surge dramatically during recessions, when people need them most. This creates a paradox: just when the underlying economy is worst, headline personal income can rise because government support floods in. April 2020 is the stark example: payrolls fell 20.5 million in that one month, yet total personal income rose as the CARES Act payments overwhelmed the wage collapse. Excluding transfers removes this artificial smoothing and exposes the true health of organic, market-based income. That is why the NBER uses the ex-transfer version, not the headline figure, for recession dating.
Why "real" instead of nominal personal income?
Nominal income in dollars grows even when purchasing power is flat or falling, simply because prices are rising. Real income adjusts for inflation using the PCE price deflator (chained 2017 dollars), so it measures actual purchasing power rather than dollar amounts. A 5% nominal income gain is meaningless if prices rose 6% — real income fell. Real personal income ex-transfers is the series to read for economic health because it captures whether people can actually buy more goods and services, not just whether they are receiving more dollars.
How is this different from regular personal income?
Standard personal income (FRED: PI) includes all transfer receipts — Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance, veterans benefits, and stimulus payments. These transfers are large and countercyclical: they surge when the economy contracts and shrink when the labor market tightens. Real personal income ex-transfers (W875RX1) removes all of that, isolating wages, salaries, proprietors income, rental income, dividends, and interest.
Why does the NBER use this for recession dating?
The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months. Real personal income ex-transfers is one of the six monthly measures the NBER's dating committee names. The others are nonfarm payrolls, household-survey employment, real consumer spending, real wholesale and retail sales, and industrial production. These series all measure different aspects of the same underlying economic cycle. When most of them fall together for a sustained period, the NBER dates a recession — usually many months after it began. Ex-transfer income is preferred over headline income precisely because government transfers can mask the contraction the NBER is trying to detect.
Why is real income growth slowing or negative now?
The year-over-year change depends on both the current level and the year-ago comparison. A negative reading can mean one of two things. Either actual income is falling in real terms: labor market weakness, falling employment, or wage growth below inflation. Or the year-ago period was unusually strong, so the current period looks weak by comparison (a "base effect"). In 2022 it was more than a base effect. On today's figures the level itself fell about 2% from October 2021 to June 2022, as prices rose faster than incomes. The figures first reported at the time showed a smaller dip. Checking payrolls, wage growth, and unemployment alongside this series helps distinguish genuine labor weakness from base-effect distortion.