Data through: Nov 6, 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Daily, market days only
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 31.5% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 84th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: Fear is elevated. The VIX has closed between 25 and 35 on about 1 day in 7 since 1990 (13% of days). A year later the S&P 500 was higher after 74% of these days, less often than after any day (81%). The typical year that followed was better, though: a median gain of +15.0%, against +11.8% after any day.
VIX — Volatility Index · Daily · 1990–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
VIX — Volatility Index — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
25.6
Concerning reading
Oct 2026
19.4
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
16.3
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
14.9
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
16.0
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
16.5
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the VIX?
The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures how much the market expects the S&P 500 to move over the next 30 days, worked out from the prices of options. Often called the "fear gauge," it rises when investors are fearful and falls when they are relaxed. Unlike most indicators, the VIX looks ahead — it reflects what options traders expect to happen, not what has already happened.
A VIX of 20 or below has meant a calm market. Above 30, fear is elevated. Readings above 40 have come only in major crises — the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID crash both pushed the VIX above 40, and it closed above 40 again in April 2025. The 2022 rate shock did not get there: that year's highest close was 36.45, on 7 March 2022.
How We Color-Code the VIX
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 12.0
Extreme calm — about 1 day in 12 since 1990
12.0 – 20.0
Low fear — the S&P 500 was higher a year later after 86% of these days since 1990, a little more often than after any day (81%)
20.0 – 25.0
Moderate uncertainty
25.0 – 35.0
Elevated fear
Above 35.0
High fear / market stress
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2020COVID Crash
82.7
The S&P 500 returned +66.1% over the next 12 months. The market's low came a week later, on 23 March 2020.
Oct 2008Financial Crisis
79.1
The S&P 500 returned +23.1% over the next 12 months, though the market's low did not come until March 2009.
Nov 2017Historic Complacency
9.1
The lowest VIX close since 1990 (the record low stands at 9.14, November 3, 2017). The S&P 500 rose 5.2% over the next 12 months. On the way it fell 10.2% in two weeks, from its 26 January 2018 high to 8 February, in the "Volmageddon" sell-off. The VIX closed as high as 37.3 in that sell-off, on 5 February.
Frequently Asked Questions
What has followed a high VIX?
A high VIX comes with falling markets and rising fear — and what followed has usually been a better year than average. Since 1990 the VIX has closed above 40 in 10 separate episodes. A year after the first such close, the S&P 500 was higher in 8 of them (the episodes to September 2025). The two exceptions were September 2001 (−15.9%) and September 2008 (−4.1%). Counting every day the VIX closed above 40 — 207 in all — the market was higher 12 months later on nearly every one (199). The typical gain was +30.1%. After any day, the market was higher a year later 81% of the time, with a typical gain of +11.8%.
What VIX level signals a market crash?
No single level announces a crash. A VIX above 30 means the market is under real stress. Readings above 40 have come only in major crises: the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID crash both pushed the VIX above 40, and it closed above 40 again in April 2025. The 2022 rate shock peaked at 36.45. The VIX has closed above 80 on only three days since 1990: 27 October and 20 November 2008, and 16 March 2020.
What is a normal VIX level?
Over the long run the VIX has averaged approximately 19-20. Readings between 15-25 are normal. Below 12 is extreme calm; above 30 is elevated fear; above 40 has meant a crisis.
Why does the VIX spike so suddenly?
The VIX is worked out from options prices, which can move very fast when investors rush to buy protection. A sudden shock — a surprise economic report, a geopolitical event, a flash crash — sends buyers flooding into options, and the VIX jumps at once. The way down is much slower: fear fades gradually.
Can the VIX be used to time the market?
Not precisely. The VIX shows how fearful the market is, not when it turns. Take the episodes counted in the first answer, when the VIX closed above 40. After the first such close, the market's lowest close of the next six months came within a week in 4 of them, and weeks or months later in the other 6 (the episodes to September 2026). Calm below 12 has not reliably come before a fall either: the S&P 500 fell 10% or more within six months of the end of 4 of the calm periods from 1990 to March 2026.