Data through: Nov 4, 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Daily (business days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 14th percentile — near historically low/favorable levels.
What this means right now: Below-average EM stress — calm to slightly calm, as on about 6 days in 10 since 2000 (58%).
OFR FSI — Emerging Markets · Daily · 2000–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
OFR FSI — Emerging Markets — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
−0.48
Healthy reading
Oct 2026
−0.49
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
−0.54
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
−0.55
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
−0.53
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
−0.57
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the OFR FSI EM Stress?
The OFR Financial Stress Index (FSI) Emerging Markets sub-component measures the contribution of emerging market financial stress to the broader OFR FSI, a daily index produced by the US Office of Financial Research. The overall OFR FSI combines market data in five categories — credit, equity valuation, safe assets, funding and volatility — across three regions: the US, other advanced economies and emerging markets. This indicator isolates the emerging markets (EM) contribution.
The OFR FSI is constructed so that 0 represents the historical average stress level, positive values indicate above-average stress, and negative values indicate below-average (calm) conditions. The EM sub-component follows the same convention. Most of the time this index sits very close to 0: half of all days from 2000 to September 2026 fall between −0.23 and +0.07, because elevated EM stress comes in episodes rather than lasting.
EM stress matters for the US outlook as one channel of a global sell-off: EM currencies fall when risk appetite falls, EM borrowers are sensitive to dollar funding, and commodity exporters feel slowdowns early. In this record, though, it has not led: in five of the six EM spikes from 2000 to September 2026 the headline stress index or the VIX had already moved. In the site's Forward Stress gauge it carries about 4.5 of the 100 points of weight, in the global pillar.
The series spiked during the 2008 crisis (peak 3.08) and in March 2020 (1.23). Ordinary stress events — 2022 EM pressure, the 2015–16 China scare and 2011 euro-area contagion — peaked between 0.51 and 0.63, in the negative band.
How We Color-Code the OFR FSI EM Stress
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −0.75
Unusually calm EM markets — well below the index's long-run average, reached on about 1 day in 17 since 2000 (6%), almost all in 2004–07
−0.75 – 0.00
Below-average EM stress — calm to slightly calm
0.00 – 0.25
Normal range — at or a little above zero, the index's own long-run average; ordinary day-to-day EM conditions
0.25 – 1.00
Elevated EM stress — a clear step above the long-run average, the level of an EM stress episode; the 2011, 2015–16 and 2022 peaks (0.51 to 0.63) sit here
1.00 or above
Acute EM crisis — stress reached only in global crises (2008–09 and 2020); the COVID peak 1.23 and the 2008 peak 3.08
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Oct 24, 2008GFC EM Crisis Peak
+3.08
The most extreme EM stress in the series, on the same day the OFR credit pillar peaked. The pillar stayed at or above 1.0 until the end of March 2009.
Mar 23, 2020COVID Dash-for-Cash EM Peak
+1.23
The COVID peak, on the same day as the credit pillar's 2020 peak. The pillar was back below 0.25, out of the elevated-stress band, by June 8, 2020.
Mar 9, 2005Historical Calm Trough
−1.09
The calmest reading in the series, on the same day as the OFR credit pillar's record low.
Frequently Asked Questions
What data goes into the OFR FSI Emerging Markets sub-component?
The OFR index combines data across asset classes and regions, weighting each variable by its changing correlation with the rest. The emerging-markets part captures EM-specific stress: EM equity and currency volatility, EM sovereign spreads and EM funding conditions. The method is described in OFR Working Paper 17-04.
Why is this series so tightly clustered near 0?
The index is built so that zero is average stress. EM markets are calm most of the time, so the daily series clusters tightly around zero: half of all days fall between −0.23 and +0.07. Stress comes in sharp episodes, a long right tail (the 99th percentile is 1.51, the maximum 3.08). Against that calm baseline, a reading of 0.25 or above is already elevated EM stress, the level of an EM stress episode.
How does the OFR FSI EM differ from VIX or the broad NFCI?
The VIX measures US equity volatility and the NFCI US financial conditions; the EM part captures stress in emerging markets, which can differ from both. In February 2016 it peaked at 0.63 while the VIX stood near 25 and the NFCI was below zero, looser than average. It was not an early warning for US markets: that peak came the day after the S&P 500's low.
Why is this included in the Forward Stress composite?
Forward Stress reads stress through five channels, and this series is one of three inputs to its global pillar, beside the broad dollar and the G7 leading indicator. It carries about 4.5 of the gauge's 100 points of weight. In the record it spiked inside the 2008 and 2020 recessions but came before neither, nor 2001: in the year before each start it stayed below 0.25, the elevated line, but for one day at 0.25 (November 26, 2007).
How are this page's colour levels set?
Zero is the index's own long-run average — the OFR builds it that way — so it divides calmer-than-average EM markets from stressed ones. Below −0.75 is unusually calm, the ease of 2004–07. From −0.75 to zero is below-average stress, calm to slightly calm. From zero to 0.25 is normal, at or a little above the average. 0.25 or above is elevated EM stress, the level of the 2011, 2015–16 and 2022 episodes, and 1.00 or above is an acute crisis, reached only in 2008–09 and March 2020. They are fixed levels, set in June 2026 with the series' whole history in view, and they do not move as new data arrives. A given reading gets the same colour in 2008 as today, so a change of colour is a change in emerging-market stress, never in the yardstick.