Data through: Nov 6, 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Daily (market cap), Quarterly (GDP)
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 98th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: The Buffett Indicator is 150% or above — the stock market is worth more than 1.5× what the US economy produces in a year, the most expensive it gets by the record. The level was first reached in March 2000, and the market has been here on 96% of days since November 2020. Over the following five years, the market ended higher after 18 of the 19 such readings with five years behind them; the one from March 2000 did not.
Buffett Indicator · Daily · 1989–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Buffett Indicator — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
223%
Severe/critical reading
Oct 2026
229%
Severe/critical reading
Sep 2026
234%
Severe/critical reading
Aug 2026
236%
Severe/critical reading
Jul 2026
230%
Severe/critical reading
Jun 2026
236%
Severe/critical reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Buffett Indicator?
The Buffett Indicator divides the total value of all US publicly traded stocks by the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Warren Buffett famously called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in a 2001 Fortune magazine interview. It answers the question: how large is the stock market relative to the underlying economy that produces the earnings?
When the ratio is near 100%, the stock market is worth about as much as the US economy produces in a year — the range long read as fair value. The starting level has mattered a great deal for what followed. On this site's record since 1989, when the ratio was below 80% the market returned a median 13.2% a year with dividends over the next ten years. When it was between 120% and 150%, the median was 0.1% a year — almost nothing. The indicator also catches something the P/E ratio misses: earnings can be flattered by accounting, but GDP is much harder to inflate. The bottom of the fraction is the real economy.
How We Color-Code the Buffett Indicator
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 80%
Cheap — the stock market worth less than four-fifths of a year's GDP (below 80%); last seen in October 2011
80% – 100%
Fair value — the market worth about a year of GDP, the range long read as fair
100% – 120%
Somewhat expensive — the market worth a bit more than a year of GDP
120% – 150%
Expensive — the market worth well over a year of GDP
150% or above
Very expensive — the market worth more than 1.5× a year's GDP; first reached in March 2000, and where the market has been for most of the time since late 2020 (96% of days since November 2020)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2000Dot-Com Bubble
155%
In March 2000 the indicator reached 150% for the first time, with Buffett warning publicly about market excess. The S&P 500 then fell 49% to its October 2002 low, and was still 43% lower three years after this reading.
Mar 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
48%
The market at its cheapest since 1990, and Buffett was publicly buying stocks. The S&P 500 returned +177% over the next 5 years.
Nov 2021Post-COVID Peak
211%
The highest reading to that date came just before a bear market. The S&P 500 was 19% lower a year later, and at its October 2022 low stood 25% below its January 2022 peak. The indicator has since gone higher still, to 240% in August 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Warren Buffett actually say about this indicator?
Buffett said the ratio of total market cap to GDP is "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment," in a December 2001 Fortune magazine article. He added that when the ratio approaches 200%, "you are playing with fire." He has referred to it in later Berkshire shareholder letters as a key valuation benchmark.
What is the "right" level for the Buffett Indicator?
There is no single right level, and it has drifted up over time. Around 80–100% was long read as fair value, and the median reading since 1989 is 104%. Since 2010 the median has been 138%. US companies now earn more abroad, which lifts their market value but not US GDP; profit margins have risen; and for most of the period, interest rates were low.
Why is the Buffett Indicator currently so high?
Several things have pushed it above its old norms. US companies now earn a large share of their profits overseas, which boosts their market value but not US GDP. Technology companies are valued highly relative to their current earnings. And for much of the past decade, historically low interest rates kept valuations high.
Is the Buffett Indicator better than the P/E ratio?
They measure different things. P/E measures price relative to earnings; the Buffett Indicator measures market cap relative to the entire economy. On the site's data since 1989 the two have often disagreed. In about 1 month in 3, one sat above its own median while the other sat below.
Does a high Buffett Indicator mean a crash is coming?
No. A high reading has come before below-average returns over the following ten years, but it says nothing about when a fall comes. The indicator has been at or above 150% on all but 58 days since July 2020 — including right through the 2022 bear market, when the S&P 500 fell 25% and the ratio never dropped below 141%. It first reached 100% in February 1997 and, after dipping below that spring, stayed at or above it through 2000. Valuation speaks to returns over years, not to the next few months.