Data through: Q2 2026 · updated Sep 12 · Updates: Quarterly · Next: Dec 10
Historical context: Currently in the 100th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: Household equity allocation is between 45% and 55% — households have never held so much of their wealth in stocks in the series' record since 1945. Every quarter at this level is from 2025 or 2026, so there is no history yet of what followed readings this high.
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q2 2026
48.2%
Concerning reading
Q1 2026
44.7%
Within normal range
Q4 2025
45.4%
Concerning reading
Q3 2025
45.1%
Concerning reading
Q2 2025
43.8%
Within normal range
Q1 2025
41.8%
Within normal range
Quarter-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Equity Allocation?
Household equity allocation measures the percentage of total household financial assets invested in equities (stocks and equity funds). When this percentage is high, households are heavily invested in the stock market relative to other assets like bonds, cash, and real estate. When it is low, households have rotated away from equities toward safer assets.
The allocation is read as a contrarian gauge: it shows what all US households, not just professional investors, have done with their money. When households held an unusually large share in stocks — the top tenth of readings, above 35% — the ten years that followed were poor. Only four such quarters have a decade behind them, all in 1999–2000, and from them the S&P 500 returned a median −0.6% a year, against 11.0% for all quarters. When the share was low, below 25%, the following ten years were strong: a median 13.9% a year with dividends, and none of those 157 ten-year periods ended lower. On the Valuations page, the year after a period of expensive readings has been weaker than the typical year after other periods in 3 of 11 cases. The three years after were weaker in 6 of 11. The Federal Reserve publishes the data quarterly in its Z.1 Financial Accounts.
How We Color-Code the Equity Allocation
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 30.0%
Low — below 30%, the series' usual state for most of its history: about 3 quarters in 4 since 1945 (229 of 305), the last in Q3 2015
30.0% – 40.0%
Moderate — 30% to 40%; 60 quarters, scattered between 1968 and 2023
40.0% – 45.0%
Elevated — 40% to 45%; new territory, 11 quarters, all since 2021
45.0% – 55.0%
High — 45% to 55%; the highest readings in the record, all from 2025 on: 5 quarters on the figures as first reported (from Q2 2025), 3 on today's revised figures (from Q3 2025)
55.0% or above
Very high — 55% or above; the series has never been here (the record is 48.2%, in Q2 2026)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2000Dot-Com Bubble Peak
38.7%
A record at the time, and not passed for two decades, set in the quarter the S&P 500 peaked. The figure was published in June 2000; over the next three years the S&P 500 returned −29.4% with dividends.
Mar 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
19.0%
The lowest reading since 1992, set in the quarter the bear market bottomed. The figure was published in June 2009; over the next five years the S&P 500 returned +132.6% with dividends.
Dec 2021Post-COVID Peak
41.0%
A record at the time, set in the quarter before the S&P 500's January 2022 peak; it has been passed in 2024–26. The figure was published in March 2022; over the next year the S&P 500 returned −8.1% with dividends.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is household equity allocation a contrarian indicator?
When households already hold most of their wealth in stocks, there are fewer new buyers left to push prices higher. When they have sold out of stocks, there is more money on the sidelines that could come back in. It is the "all in" problem: on this site's record, the highest readings have been followed by the weakest ten-year returns and the lowest by the strongest.
How is this different from investor sentiment surveys like AAII?
AAII surveys measure what investors say they intend to do; household equity allocation measures what they hold. One is a weekly opinion, the other a quarterly balance sheet.
Where does the Federal Reserve get this data?
The Fed builds the figures in its Financial Accounts of the United States (formerly the Flow of Funds report), bringing together data from financial institutions, brokerages and other sources. It covers all US household financial assets, including retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs.
Does high household equity allocation always predict a crash?
No. Its record speaks to returns over the next ten years, not the next quarter, and a high reading can go higher for years. In 1995 the allocation was still only 21–24%, yet the S&P 500 rose another 148% before its March 2000 peak. The record readings of the time (37–39%) came in the two quarters just before that peak.
Why is this data published quarterly with a lag?
The Fed builds the figures from the reports of thousands of financial institutions, which takes time. They are usually published 10-12 weeks after the end of each quarter, so the latest reading is always several months old.